Written by @joejets19

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YellaWood 500 🏁

After a string of night races, we are in the home stretch of 6 straight Sunday afternoons to finish off the season. Just because they aren't racing under the lights doesn't mean we won't have fireworks, however, because we get the final superspeedway race of the season this weekend. This Sunday, NASCAR is traveling to Talladega Superspeedway in Lincoln, AL for the YellaWood 500. Talladega is 2.66 mile steeply banked tri-oval. Due to its long length and steep banking, Dega was one of the two tracks on the NASCAR circuit that had to implement a restrictor plate to slow the cars down. They have done away with the restrictor plates but have still lowered horsepower and added a tapered spacer so they essentially have produced similar races, just by a separate mechanism (more on this later).

On to Talladega!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 188 laps will be run this and 47 points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.5 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 150 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 75 possible points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

This is now the 88th Pitstop and I believe the 10th one for a superspeedway/restrictor plate race, so I hope we have a general idea of how we should attack this slate. A quick review; due to the aeropackage used at superspeedways, the upper level cars generally have the same top speed. The only way for cars to go faster is to draft in a pack. Since there are a high percentage of laps run with cars very close to each other, one mishap can lead to a massive wreck ("Big One") that has the potential to take out a significant portion of the field. The way we leverage this information in DFS is to back load our lineups in order to 1) limit the downside of our drivers if they get caught up in the Big One and 2) maximize the upside of our drivers if they survive the entire race.

Now, there are differences between the two superspeedways (Daytona and Talladega) so in tournaments we have to fine tune our approach for the specific track. At Talladega, we actually have to take a little more risk if we want a chance to take down a GPP. Five of the last six perfect lineups had two drivers that started in the top 15, including one driver starting in the top 10. A "dominator" here will generally lead between 50-70 laps but they will not rack up enough points to make the perfect lineup if they get caught up in the Big One. So we should avoid trying to pick a dominator. There has also been a lot of talk around social media that this will be a calmer race than usual because its a playoff race but not a cutoff race, so the playoff drivers are still going to be racing for points. The last three fall Talladega races had between four and five drivers starting 20th or worse in the perfect lineup and this June's race (which was calm by most standards) also had four drivers starting 20th or worse. So I am thinking two drivers better than 15 and four drivers 20th or worse is a solid GPP strategy, while six drivers 20th or worse is what we will want for cash.

It should also be noted that we don't need to use the entire salary this weekend. Each of the last nine perfect lineups had a total salary between $43,500 and $47,900 on DK.

Stage 1: 60 laps, Stage 2: 60 laps, Stage 3: 68 laps

Competition Caution: Lap 25

Lineup Foundation Targets

Brendan Gaughan ($9,500 DK, $5,000 FD)

I love the fact that DK finally caught on and jacked Gaughan's price up, but I don't care. He is the definition of a superspeedway specialist and this is his farewell race. He is starting 39th and, sadly, has the highest floor of the slate...5 points. While Gaughan's floor is nice, he has an average finish of 19.29 in his last seven races here and has two top 15 finishes in the last four. He will be one of the most owned drivers of the slate so there's always the option of the game theory fade, but I will leave it to others to get cute.

Ty Dillon ($6,300 DK, $6,000 FD)

Dillon is shockingly good at Talladega. He is starting 28th and has an average finish of 13.29 in his seven races here. While Dillon only has one top 10 finish here, he has never finished worse than 17th and has largely avoided any trouble. There is a chance his good fortune will have to run out eventually but let's hope that's next year.

Tournament Targets

Joey Logano ($10,300 DK, $11,600 FD)

Logano is one of the playoff drivers I have on my radar for Sunday. He is starting 8th and has been one of the most consistent big name drivers at Talladega. He has largely managed to avoid wrecking out of races, with only one DNF if his last seven race here and has an average finish of 10.57 during that time. Logano has made leading laps at Dega almost an expectation, with at least 10 laps led in six of the last seven and even has one win (with 70 laps led as a bonus).

Cory Lajoie ($6,700 DK, $5,500 FD)

You know it is a superspeedway newsletter when Lajoie gets mentioned anywhere but the Bargain Basement. He is starting 29th and actually got a bit of a price bump on DK; two things I am hoping will drive his ownership down. Lajoie has three straight top 20s here including a 7th place finish last October. He is still racing for a ride for next year, so this is a playoff race for him too in a sense. So I expect Lajoie to take extra care of his car on Sunday and make sure he avoids any trouble.

Aric Almirola ($8,500 DK, $10,700 FD)

Almirola is my risky pick of the week due to his 11th place starting position. This is going to be his best chance over the next two races to keep his playoff hopes alive and he actually has the best average finish in the field over the last seven races. Almirola has finished in the top 5 in three of the last four races here and is a real threat to win, something he was able to do in October 2018.

Bargain Basement

Justin Haley ($5,400 DK, $5,500 FD)

Haley had a fluke win at Daytona last summer but has followed that up with some serious success in Xfinity. He doesn't have a long Cup history at Talladega, but he is cheap and starting 35th, which is all we really need from him.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Talladega that have a chance to make some noise, in no particular order:

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($8,800 DK, $11,000 FD)

Ryan Blaney ($9,100 DK, $12,000 FD)

John H. Nemecheck ($5,600 DK, $5,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Martin Truex Jr. ($9,300 DK, $10,000 FD)

While doing research for this race, I found out I faded Truex in June and that worked out well so we might as well run it back in October. Truex Jr. has an average finish here of 25.14 in the last seven and has eight straight finishes of 20th or worse. He is starting 3rd on Sunday and I want no part of him.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat! 

Be sure to download the YellaWood 500 Cheatsheet and find me on Twitter. Good Luck!

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