Written by @joejets19

Join the LineStar NASCAR Chat for info from experts.

Download the South Point 400 Cheatsheet

South Point 400 🏁

Hope you are feeling lucky because NASCAR is heading to Las Vegas Sunday night for the South Point 400. The race will take place at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, a 1.5 mile progressively banked tri-oval. Races at this track have been relatively clean recently, with a few caution filled outliers. This will be the first race of the second round of the playoffs and the seeding will reset, so some drivers that made big strides in round one will have to try to repeat their success. Weather should not be an issue on Sunday night but it will be a hot summer evening.

On to Las Vegas!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 267 laps will be run this and 66.75 points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.5 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 237 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 11.5 possible points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

We are back at a cookie cutter 1.5 mile track, so we will see almost half as many laps this race as compared to last weekend. This seriously reduces the number of dominator points and will makes place differential drivers more valuable. Races at Vegas are unique because the major dominator doesn't necessarily have to lead 100 or more laps. In fact, only three of the last seven races here had a driver that led more than 100 laps. That doesn't mean we should forgo dominators this weekend, we just need to limit our lineups to having only 1 or 2 dominators.

We will want to fill out our lineups with four to five drivers that we think can pick up at least 10 spots. Ideally, we would like them to finish in the top 10 too, but it is not actually a requirement as long as they make a significant move forward. One common theme with most of these perfect lineups is they have had one driver that started in the top 10 and only picked up a couple of spots and was able to pay off their discounted salary by not falling back. I generally stay away from those types of drivers due to their inherent risk but sometimes it is a low upside, low floor driver that can differentiate a lineup.

Stage 1: 80 laps, Stage 2: 80 laps, Stage 3: 107 laps

Competition Caution: Lap 25

Lineup Foundation Targets

Kevin Harvick ($11,700 DK, $13,500 FD)

I am a sucker for a fast car on the pole and I am going to keep riding them...until it works. Harvick has been one of the best drivers here with four top 8 finishes and 455 laps led in his last six races here. But he has also run into his fair share of trouble, with two accidents in that time. He has been incredibly consistent this season with 8 top five finishes at intermediate tracks this season with three races with over 90 laps led. Harvick will have to lead more than 90 laps and hang on to a top 5 to land in the perfect lineup due to his salary. But if there is a driver that can pull that off, he is at the top of the list.

Ryan Newman ($7,400 DK, $7,500 FD)

Picking the right drivers starting 20th or worse is imperative for success this weekend. Newman is starting 27th on Sunday and he has a fantastic course history, with five finishes of 17th or better in his last six races here including two top 10s. He hasn't shown top 10 upside at intermediate tracks this season but he does have unmatched consistency with a top 17 finish in 7/10 races this year. Why do I keep mentioning top 17 finishes? Because that would give Newman 37 DK pts and put him right on the verge of the perfect lineup.

Tournament Targets

Martin Truex Jr. ($10,600 DK, $13,200 FD)

Martin Truex Jr. and Brad Keselowski are in a very intriguing position on Sunday. Truex starts 11th and Kes starts 12th, so they have some place differential potential as well as dominator potential. There is no doubt in my mind both drivers will find their way up front for at least a short spell and although Kes will be the better play in cash and on FD, I believe Truex will be the better tournament play. He is cheaper on DK and has a lower average finish over the last six, despite having more wins and laps led. So I am looking to get some leverage on the field by favoring Truex over Kes on Sunday.

Cole Custer ($6,600 DK, $8,000 FD)

We are dropping back down to 22nd starting position with our next driver, Cole Custer. He is a GPP-only option on Sunday because he is by no means a safe choice but has shown all season that he has top 10 upside. Anyone who has watched any race this season will have heard that Custer is "running the same equipment as Harvick," which I don't totally agree with but is close enough to being true that we can use that to our advantage this weekend. If the Stewart-Haas team nails the set up, Custer will be the second biggest beneficiary DFS-wise because he is the cheapest driver as well as the driver starting furthest back. He no longer has the stress of the playoffs to worry about so he can be free to relax and enjoy racing. The converse to all of this is he can just put up and dud and finish 25th, which wouldn't kill us but definitely wouldn't help.

Alex Bowman ($7,300 DK, $9,000 FD)

I am going to try my hand at picking the random driver that doesn't really move around much but always seems to be in the perfect lineup at Vegas, and that driver this weekend in Alex Bowman. He is starting 8th and is actually the cheapest driver in the top 10. Recency bias will draw people to Austin Dillon starting one spot ahead of Bowman, but I think Bowman has the better chance of finishing well on Sunday.

Bargain Basement

Ty Dillon ($5,900 DK, $5,000 FD)

This is another GPP-only pick this week because Dillon has legitimate top 15 upside here (he has a top 16 finish in each of the last 2 races here) but also can sink a lineup due to his 24th place starting position. I prefer Lajoie in cash and Yeley if you need a super-punt but overall, none of the drivers in this range can match Dillon's upside and that is what I am looking for on Sunday.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Las Vegas that have a chance to make some noise, in no particular order:

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($7,800 DK, $7,000 FD)

Tyler Reddick ($6,900 DK, $7,800 FD)

Chase Elliott ($9,700 DK, $12,300 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Denny Hamlin ($11,000 DK, $13,300 FD)

This is a weird track for Hamlin to struggle but here we are. He is starting 10th but only has two top 10 finishes in the last 6 races here and a grand total of four laps led during that time. He has been arguably the best driver of the season but I think he is going to have to wait another week before he can get back into victory lane.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat! 

Be sure to download the South Point 400 Cheatsheet and find me on Twitter. Good Luck!

🚨 Get 3 Free Months of LineStar Premium 🚨

Get 3-months of LineStar Premium for new users to SuperDraft who deposit/play $10!

Terms: Partnership offers do NOT renew. See SuperDraft landing page for full terms and conditions. Must be a new user to SuperDraft and deposit and play a minimum of $10 to qualify. If you have an existing LineStar Premium subscription you get a Hat/Tee/Pen combo instead of the 3-months.