Written by @joejets19

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Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race 🏁

The first round of the playoffs concludes this Saturday night as NASCAR travels to Bristol Motor Speedway in Bristol, TN for the Bass Pro Shops NRA Night race. We are being treated to another primetime short track race with a ton of laps, 500 to be exact. Bristol is a 0.533 mile steeply banked concrete oval. Races here generally see a relatively high rate of attrition (number of cars that run into trouble) and I think this will be amplified on Saturday because tensions will be high among the playoff drivers.

On to Bristol!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 500 laps will be run this and 125 points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.5 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 420 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 210 possible points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

We get one of the longest races (lap-wise) of the season Saturday night and you know what that means....dominators. 500 laps means 125 laps led points and roughly 210 fastest laps points and we will need to capture a significant portion of those if we even want to min-cash. Eight of the last nine races at Bristol have had at least two, and as many as four, drivers lead more than 100 laps, and one race had three drivers lead between 79-93 laps, so we are looking for 2-3 dominator lineups. Oddly enough, due to the previously mentioned attrition factor and the number of dominators per race, it takes more than leading 100 laps to land in the perfect lineup. We will need to take into account our dominator's salary as well as their ability to finish well. Dominators can come from just about anywhere in the field, but starting on the pole has proven to be a distinct advantage.

Continuing with the theme of finishing well, our place differential drivers don't necessarily need to pick up a ton of spots but they do need to finish in the top 10. Eight of the nine previous perfect lineups featured five drivers finishing in the top 10 and one lineup had all six drivers finish between 1st-8th. The doesn't necessarily mean we have to construct an overly front loaded lineup, we just need to keep in mind that picking up 10 spots and finishing in the top 20 won't cut it in tournaments for anyone but a bargain basement driver. Speaking of bargain basement drivers, seven of the nine drivers that finished worse than 10th but ended up in the perfect line cost $6000 or less. We will most likely need one, if not two, drivers from that price range but they will need to at least finish in the top 20.

Stage 1: 125 laps, Stage 2: 125 laps, Stage 3: 250 laps

Competition Caution: Lap 30

Lineup Foundation Targets

Brad Keselowski ($11,200 DK, $13,200 FD)

Keselowski won here in May from the pole and I am banking on a repeat from the pole again. Surprisingly, he is not the most expensive driver on either site but I do think he is the driver that is most likely to lead more than 100 laps. Like most of the high priced drivers this weekend his long term history is not the best but he has shown the ability to dominate a race when he gets up front. He has the most to lose place differential wise, so any late race slip ups can sink him from the perfect lineup. Overall, I am rolling with the hot hand, hoping Kes leads the entire first stage and is able to hang on to a top 5.

Jimmie Johnson ($8,600 DK, $9,400 FD)

Johnson is out of the playoffs but is still on his farewell tour. Bristol has been good to Jimmie over the years, including a 3rd place finish in May. He starts 24th on Saturday, the same place he started earlier this year, and provides that top 10 potential we are looking for in our non-dominators. He is priced in an area that I think will go overlooked because people will lean on more of a stars and scrubs approach, so I think he will be a good cash and tournament option. In the May race he had the third best green flag average and even picked up 16 fastest laps, so he has the speed and history to get it done this weekend.

Tournament Targets

Kyle Busch ($10,400 DK, $12,000 FD)

I refuse to believe Kyle Busch will go winless in 2020, so this is the time to really start investing in the leverage. Bristol has been arguably Busch's best track this season, with a second place finish in both the May race and the All-Star race. He seems to have his Bristol car dialed in and starting 9th, he has some place differential upside as well. Kyle led 100 laps in May and ran the fastest green flag average, which will will definitely cause his ownership to be more inflated than I would like, but I still think he is a fantastic tournament option for Saturday.

Matt Kenseth ($6,300 DK, $7,000 FD)

Kenseth is way too cheap and provides the top 10 potential at the discount we are looking for in tournaments. He is starting 19th, between drivers like Reddick, Bell, Jones and Stenhouse Jr. who might be safer options but are all more expensive despite their similar ceilings. Kenseth was "blah" here in May and his long term history is more boom or bust than he is used to, but I think he is finally getting comfortable with his car/team and can turn in a vintage Kenseth performance this weekend.

Ryan Blaney ($8,800 DK, $11,300 FD)

Blaney is in an almost must-win situation and he knows it. The good news is he has some impressive races here on his resume, the bad news is he also has his fair share of poor finishes. Blaney is starting 14th on Saturday night so he is going to have his work cut out for him and he has already gone on record saying everyone in front of him better watch out. That certainly makes him a risky option because he will be white-knuckling it around the track all night, hunting for the win. That is certainly what we want from our drivers but one slip up will end all of our nights.

Bargain Basement

Corey Lajoie ($5,500 DK, $3,500 FD)

After a disappointing performance last weekend, Lajoie actually got his price cut, which could not have come at a better time. He is starting 30th on Saturday and has shown some upside here, with two 24th place finishes in his career. He is racing for a ride the rest of the season and has been fairly successful at high attrition tracks. So if he can manage to sneak into the top 20, he will certainly be in the perfect lineup.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Bristol that have a chance to make some noise, in no particular order:

Denny Hamlin ($12,000 DK, $13,600 FD)

Clint Bowyer ($8,400 DK, $10,700 FD)

John H. Nemechek ($6,400 DK, $5,500 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Martin Truex Jr. ($10,000 DK, $11,600 FD)

Truex Jr. was my fade in May and it worked out well, let's see if we can do it again. He is absolutely miserable here, with one top 10 finish in the last 16 races and only 280 laps led in his career. It's 2020, so you know he's probably going to dominate from his 3rd place starting position, but he is definitely not a driver I am going to have a lot of exposure to.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat! 

Be sure to download the Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race Cheatsheet and find me on Twitter. Good Luck!

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