Written by @joejets19

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Federated Auto Parts 400 🏁

NASCAR's day in the sun is over now that the NFL is back but there is still a substantial amount of money to be won so lets not get complacent during the homestretch of the season. This weekend we are treated to a Saturday night race at Richmond Raceway in Richmond, VA for the Federated Auto Parts 400. The track is a 0.75 mile banked D-shaped oval which is known for tons of speed and even more bumping. This is the second race of the first stage of the playoffs, so as the race wears on the intensity should pick up.

On to Richmond!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 400 laps will be run this and 100 points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.5 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 360 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 180 possible points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

If you thought there were a ton of dominator points available last week, NASCAR outdid themselves with a 400 lap race this Saturday (and we get a 500 lap race next weekend). Dominators will be the name of the game again this weekend and we are going to need to target at least two and at most 3 drivers that we think can lead at least 90 laps and finish well. The finishing well part is the trick because in the last seven races at Richmond, 16 drivers have led 89 or more laps but only 12 of those drivers made it to the perfect lineup (75%). Dominators usually come from the top 10, with only two of the previous 16 dominators starting 11th and 15th. The top 3 does seem to have a distinct advantage early on at Richmond, so we will want to have some exposure to those drivers.

We are going to want to round out our lineups with a balance of drivers that can either finish well or pick up a ton of spots. Our goal is to roster four drivers that we think can finish in the top 10 and two drivers that can pick up at least 10 spots or lead enough laps to make up for the negative place differential. This seems like an odd way to build a team but there have been a good number of drivers that have led a significant portion of laps then fallen out of the top 10, so we may need to look for some non-dominator top 10 potential. We can venture into the bargain basement again this weekend but these drivers will need to pick up at least 10 spots or finish in the top 20.

Stage 1: 80 laps, Stage 2: 155 laps, Stage 3: 165 laps

Competition Caution: Lap 30

Lineup Foundation Targets

Martin Truex Jr ($10,900 DK, $13,000 FD)

Truex has been the most dominant driver at Richmond in recent memory, with two consecutive wins and more than 100 laps led in six of the last seven races here. He had a disappointing finish after dominating last Sunday night's race, so he will have his work cut out for him since he starts 15th. Truex is right on the cusp of dominator potential but has a significant amount of place differential to make up for the time it will take him to get up front. I expect Truex to be one of the most popular drivers of the slate but he definitely has one of the highest ceiling in the field.

Ryan Newman ($7,000 DK, $8,000 FD)

I have been more wrong on Newman than right this season but we need top 10 potential for cheap and Newman checks both of those boxes. He is starting 21st and has raced to positive place differential in five of the last six races here and posted a top 10 finish in four of those races. Newman is known for running a solid race, usually finishing between 14-18 regardless of starting position. This is one of the few tracks that Newman has legitimate top 10 potential and his floor/ceiling combination will be hard to pass up for cash games.

Tournament Targets

Joey Logano ($9,300 DK, $12,200 FD)

Logano will be starting second on Saturday, right next to Kevin Harvick but offers a $2,000 discount. I believe that Harvick may actually be the higher owned driver because everyone watched Chase Elliott dominate early last week in a similar position when given the clean air, which makes Logano a great tournament option. Logano has four top 5 finishes, including a win, in his last six races here and led between 25-92 laps in three of those races. Harvick has been underwhelming from the pole in recent history here and the drivers starting 3-5 haven't shown a ton of dominator potential in the past, so I think Logano has a very good chance to lead a bunch of laps early until things get interesting later in the race.

Christopher Bell ($7,200 DK, $8,400 FD)

Bell was an absolute stud here during his time in Xfinity with three wins and two races with over 120 laps led in five total starts. He is starting 26th on Saturday night and is another driver who offers massive upside at a low salary. A top 15 finish would net him at least 40 DK points, which would put him on the verge of the perfect lineup and anything more than that is gravy. He has shown some ability at short tracks at the Cup level, finishing 9th this May at Bristol after starting all the way back at 35th.

Michael McDowell ($5,400 DK, $5,500 FD)

This is a bit of an odd risky pick of the week for me, but I can't imagine McDowell will be more than 10% owned in any tournament this weekend and I think he has realistic top 15 potential. He is incredibly cheap, which is nice, but starting 20th he is also brutally risky because one slip up and he can destroy a lineup. McDowell's track history isn't great by any stretch but he's run very well this season at short tracks and I think the new aero package really fits his racing style. Again, he is a GPP-only option but I think he can really differentiate any lineup and provide upside.

Bargain Basement

Corey Lajoie ($5,800 DK, $4,000 FD)

After a few weeks with some options in this range, it is slim pickings again. I already highlighted McDowell, Buescher's history is brutal and the other drivers have absolutely zero ceiling. That leaves us with Corey Lajoie, starting 34th. If we hold to our "at least 10 spots picked up" rule, Lajoie will need to turn in a career-best finish to have a shot at the perfect lineup. He is more of a pay up for safety option because I think he can get into the top 28 pretty easily (which would get him about 4x value) so he would need a little help to turn in a tournament winning score, but you could do much worse in cash.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Darlington that have a chance to make some noise, in no particular order:

Kyle Busch ($9,800 DK, $11,700 FD)

Matt DiBenedetto ($7,500 DK, $8,800 FD)

John H. Nemechek ($6,500 DK, $5,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Ryan Blaney ($9,500 DK, $9,800 FD)

We are going to double down on the Blaney fade this week because his season is about to snowball. His playoffs couldn't have started worse, a 10 point penalty and the lowest finish of all the playoff drivers. I think he is going to try to make up some ground at Richmond, a track that has been historically pitiful for him, and it may cost him his season.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat! 

Be sure to download the Federated Auto Parts 400 Cheatsheet and find me on Twitter. Good Luck!

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