Written by @joejets19

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Cook Out Southern 500 🏁

I want to start off by wishing everyone a Happy Labor Day and hope you can enjoy the time with family any friends in a socially distant way. Last week's race started slow but delivered when it mattered and that is what we are looking for again on Sunday night as NASCAR opens their playoffs with the Cook Out Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway in Darlington, SC. This will be the third race this year at Darlington after they picked up the two return races from the break during a Sunday-Wednesday double header. The track is a 1.366 mile banked, egg -shaped oval that has the unique feature of being wider at one end than the other. Weather does not appear to be an issue so we should be treated to the entire race on Sunday evening. One important thing to take note of is this is the last race before the NFL season begins so we will see drastically smaller contests going forward. If you have been saving up to splurge on a big contest, this may be your last chance.

On to Darlington!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 367 laps will be run this and 91.75 points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.5 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 312 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 156 possible points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

There will be at least 367 laps run on Sunday night under the lights, so we will need to pick some dominators. The second race this season was a mess and rain shortened, so I will take their perfect lineup with a grain of salt. But, overall, we generally see at least one and as many as three drivers lead 75 or more laps and twice in the last six races we have seen one driver lead more than 200 laps. Dominators can come from just about anywhere in the field (even as far back as 33rd), both drivers that led 200+ started on the front row and there is a clear advantage to starting in the top 10, so I wouldn't get too cute. Overall, I would suggest rostering two drivers starting in the top 10 in the hopes that both dominate, or at least lead a chunk of laps and finish well.

We will want to round out our lineups with drivers that can both make big moves and finish well. If we want to take down a big GPP on Sunday, we are going to need at least four, if not five of our drivers to finish in the top 10 and pick up at least 7 spots in the process. The starting order is talent heavy in the front due to all of the playoff drivers starting in the top 16, so we are going to have to be very careful on how we select our place differential drivers.

It is also looking like we will need at least one driver in the bargain basement and a supplemental cheap driver in the $6000 range to make this lineup construction work. The good thing about one of these low cost picks is they only need to pick up a handful of spots and you shouldn't need them to finish too well. If you do double dip however, one of the two needs to have top 10 potential.

Stage 1: 115 laps, Stage 2: 115 laps, Stage 3: 137 laps

Competition Caution: Lap 25

Lineup Foundation Targets

Denny Hamlin ($11,400 DK, $13,500 FD)

Hamlin is the most expensive driver of the slate, and for good reason. He is starting second on Sunday and I think he is the driver that is most likely to lead more than 100 laps. He had arguably the best car in both races in May, especially over the long run, and proved throughout the year that his team excels at getting the set-up right from the jump. Hamlin will need to lead a bunch of laps or win to make it into the perfect lineup, so there is very little margin of error and the one thing we saw in the first two races is it is very hard to pass the leader under green. So if he doesn't grab the lead from Elliott early, it will be a long first stage for Hamlin.

Erik Jones ($9,600 DK, $10,500 FD)

Chalk Erik Jones makes my stomach hurt, but starting 30th, he is at least a cash game lock. This is easily Jones' best track, recording five straight finishes of 8th or better with positive place differential in four of those races. This year he posted top 10 green flag averages in both races and even scored the fourth-most fastest laps in the second race. He is going to be immensely popular so I will not try to talk anyone out of avoiding him in tournaments, but I am a sucker for chalk and I would rather play Jones at $9,600 starting 30th than Stenhouse Jr. who is $9,200 starting 29th (Stenhouse is much cheaper on FD so he is a much better play there).

Tournament Targets

Brad Keselowski ($8,800 DK, $12,600 FD)

I will preface this by saying I never get Kes right, but it is hard to pass him up at this price on DK. He is staring 5th and I think will actually go a little overlooked due to Truex starting 6th and Harvick starting 8th. Kes is the type of driver that always finds himself up front for at least a little stretch and, with a good bounce here or there, he can find a way to stay up there. He has posted a win and two other top 5 finishes in his last four races here and I like him as a possible second dominator on Sunday.

Tyler Reddick ($7,000 DK, $9,000 FD)

Reddick is one of the few non-playoff drivers with top 10 potential at almost any track. He is starting 24th on Sunday and was very successful here earlier this year. He posted a positive place differential in both races in May and even finished in 7th in the first race. Reddick was not impressively fast in the second race here this season but should have a better car than at least 5 drivers starting ahead of him, which is a nice way to start a race.

Matt Kenseth ($6,500 DK, $7,000 FD)

Kenseth is another driver that makes me squeamish rostering, just because he has been so disappointing for most of this season. He starts 26th on Sunday and actually ran pretty well here earlier this year with a 10th place finish in the first race and a deceptively good second race where he spend more than half the race in the top 15 before running into trouble late. He is the risky pick of the week because he is constantly running into trouble but outside of the very obvious plays, there are a bunch of drivers that don't look to be in the best spot going into the race that we are going to have a to take a chance on and Kenseth is at the top of the list.

Bargain Basement

Ryan Preece ($5,900 DK, $5,000 FD)

Preece continues to be the only driver in this range with legitimate upside. He only posted positive place differential in one race here but does have a 20th and a 22nd place finish to his name, which will be more than enough since he is starting 35th. He will be a popular driver on Sunday but finishing position is important and he has the highest ceiling of anyone priced $5,900 and below. An important note on Preece, his speeds during the second race will be skewed because he only ran 68 laps. He is still a good play but he would not have had the 6th best green flag average if he ran the whole race.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Darlington that have a chance to make some noise, in no particular order:

Ryan Newman ($7,200 DK, $7,500 FD)

Ty Dillon ($6,000 DK, $4,500 FD)

Kurt Busch ($9,000 DK, $10,800 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Ryan Blaney ($10,300 DK, $10,000 FD)

Blaney has been very good this season...but not at Darlington. He actually has posted a negative place differential in each of the last three races here and has never finished in the top 10 or led a lap. He is very expensive and carries a ton of downside due to his 7th place starting position.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat! 

Be sure to download the Cook Out Southern 500 Cheatsheet and find me on Twitter. Good Luck!

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