Written by @joejets19

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Coke Zero Sugar 400 🏁

NASCAR has reached a point in the year I almost thought we would never see, the end of the regular season. Be ready for some fireworks as the playoff field will be finalized after the Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona International Speedway in Daytona Beach, FL on Saturday night. Daytona is a 2.5 mile, steeply banked tri-oval that is classified as one of the two superspeedways on the NASCAR circuit. Weather could be an issue, like any summer race in Florida but the forecast gets better as the night moves on. We will tackle the specific superspeedway strategy later in the newsletter but I just want to say I love night races, I love superspeedway races and knowing what is at stake on Saturday night, I can't wait for it to get here.

On to Daytona!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 160 laps will be run this and 40 points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.5 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 135 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 72.5 possible points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

Superspeedways (formerly known as restrictor plate tracks) produce some of the most fun finishes and unpredictable results in all of NASCAR. We need to understand this going into the race and alter our lineup construction to maximize our floor as well as our ceiling. The first rule of DFS at superspeedways, back load your lineups. Eight of the last nine perfect lineups had at least three drivers starting 25th or worse and three of those races had all six drivers start worse than 20th. Due to the restrictor plate previously, and the aero package currently, drivers will spend the most crucial moments of the race in a tight pack trying to optimize aerodynamics by drafting. The downside to this is if one driver hiccups, a massive wreck occurs ("The Big One") and it can flip a DFS contest on its head. At least one Big One happens at every superspeedway and the way to protect a lineup is to choose drivers starting further back in the hopes that they can avoid the wreck and pick up a ton of place differential by simply surviving.

I mentioned it in the chat earlier this week but I want to say it here as well, due to the high volatility of this race and the fact that anywhere between 40-60% of the field will have some sort of issue, this is the perfect GPP weekend. I always suggest playing more lineups in lower entry fee tournaments than you normally do because it only takes one clean lineup to skyrocket up the leaderboard.

For those of you playing cash games on Saturday night, choose six drivers starting 26th or worse and call it a day. For those of you playing tournaments: if you want to play it safe, load up on drivers starting 20th or worse. I would suggest at least 10% of each but no more than 40-50% of any specific driver because even the "safest" drivers still have a high chance to wreck. If you want to go for the gold, the glory, the takedown if you will, then we are going to need to venture further forward in the field. Four of the last last nine perfect lineups had at least one driver starting in the top 11 and eight of the last nine have had at least one driver starting better than 25th. Picking these drivers opens yourself up to some very negative scores so it is not for the feint of heart.

One last note, don't stress out about salary on Saturday. Perfect lineups have had anywhere between $31,000-$47,000 so yea... lineup construction will be different for this race.

Stage 1: 50 laps, Stage 2: 50 laps, Stage 3: 60 laps

Competition Caution: Lap 20

Lineup Foundation Targets

Brendan Gaughan ($8,600 DK, $6,500 FD)

This is your quarterly reminder than Brendan Gaughan may not be a name you recognize but he is a Superspeedway Specialist. He is a bit of a DFS darling and will be incredibly chalky on Saturday night but starting 40th, he has limited downside and all the upside in the world. Gaughan has a top 20 finish in five of the last seven races at Daytona, with positive place differential in six. He has stated that this will be his last year racing the Cup series, making this his last chance at a W at Daytona. Salary doesn't matter but a top 22 would get him 40 DK pts which would be put him in contention for the perfect lineup, and anything better than that will be an added bonus.

Ross Chastain ($7,100 DK, $8,000 FD)

As I am writing this, Chastain just wrecked on the final lap in the Xfinity race to crush me, but lets see if he learned his lesson for Saturday. Chastain is starting 36th and should garner some ownership due to name recognition alone but he is another driver that is cash game "safe" with top 15 upside. He has three top 25 finishes here in four races, with a best finish of 10th, so I am not expecting him to light the field on fire but he offers immense value due to his starting position for cash game lineups and could be an interesting pivot off of Ricky Stenhouse Jr. in tournaments.

Tournament Targets

Michael McDowell ($6,900 DK, $9,800 FD)

McDowell got quite the price bump on FD, which is interesting but not really problematic, and he is priced pretty fairly on DK. He is starting 26th which puts him in danger of posting a pretty ugly score if things go awry but I love the upside he brings to a tournament lineup. McDowell has an average finish of 12.29 in his last seven races at Daytona with two top five finishes during that time. He has also finished with a positive place differential in eight of the last ten races here. McDowell excels at superspeedways but may go overlooked due to his slightly uncomfortable starting position.

Ty Dillon ($6,100 DK, $8,900 FD)

Keeping with the theme of drivers starting in the back half of the field, I am looking at Ty Dillon as a solid tournament play starting 29th. Dillon has an average finish of 18.71 in his last seven races here and three top 6 finishes in the last four. He is not immune to accidents however, with three finishes of 30th or worse in the last seven, but he is another driver whose upside is hard to pass up with a relatively solid floor.

Ryan Blaney ($10,000 DK, $10,000 FD)

We are going to have to expose ourselves to some of these drivers starting up front if we want a chance to take down a big GPP and a name I keep coming back to is Ryan Blaney. He starts 9th, so he has a chance to get up front and lead laps or completely torpedo a lineup, and he has the potential to do either. He tends to run well here until he doesn't, picking up stage points in six of the last seven races at Daytona, including winning stage 2 in two of those races but only has three top 7 finishes to show for it. Stage points don't matter in DFS so that doesn't really help us much, but it does prove that he is always in the thick of things and all it takes is a touch of luck for him to turn a 30th place finish into a top 5.

High Priced Driver to Watch

Joey Logano ($9,400 DK, $9,600 FD)

This entire newsletter has lived in the bargain basement practically, so I wanted to highlight another driver that is starting further forward and is relatively expensive. Logano starts 3rd and is an incredibly risky low percentage play that can pay off dividends. He is the type of driver that is always hanging out up front and will grab the lead on pit strategy for a few laps each stage. Logano is no stranger to running up front at Daytona and even has a win here in 2015. I am planning on completely fading the front row and won't play Logano in more than 5% of lineups but he will be in my player pool just in case he decides to break the slate.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Daytona that have a chance to make some noise, in no particular order:

Ryan Newman ($6,500 DK, $10,000 FD)

Bubba Wallace ($6,600 DK, $7,000 FD)

Chris Buescher ($6,000 DK, $8,200 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Chase Elliott ($11,000 DK, $11,800 FD)

Elliott is the biggest name, starting the furthest back and the one thing that can get you massive leverage on the field is avoiding bad chalk. Elliott is not a bad superspeedway driver, but he has had much more success at Talladega than Daytona. He starts 27th on Saturday night and a ton of eyes will be on him but his history here is not exactly awe inspiring, with an average finish of 24.57 in his last seven races here and no top 10 finishes. What makes the back loaded strategy so successful at these tracks is that those drivers have terrible cars, so they literally can't keep up with the pack. Elliott is starting in the rear part of the field but will be right in the middle of the pack in no time, opening him up to serious danger. I am not rolling out a full fade but I expect him to be in the 40% owned range and I will aim to be about half that.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat! 

Be sure to download the Coke Zero Sugar 400 Cheatsheet and find me on Twitter. Good Luck!

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