Written by @joejets19

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Drydene 311 🏁

We have ourselves another doubleheader weekend on our hands as NASCAR travels to Dover International Speedway in Dover, DE for the Drydene 311 (twice). The "Monster Mile" is a one mile, steeply banked, concrete oval. This is the first double header where we know the salaries for both races beforehand, but we only know the starting positions for the Saturday race so immense value can open up for the second race and DK/FD will not be able to adjust salaries. Like the previous double headers, NASCAR will use the top 20 invert to set the field for Sunday's race. There is a low chance of rain both days and the track does not have lights so it will be interesting to see how this weekend plays out. A note about the aero package for the weekend, the cars will be equipped with the high HP low downforce package that was run at Phoenix/Bristol/New Hampshire so there may be more passing than we have seen in recent races but clean air will still be king.

On to Dover!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 311 laps will be run this and 77.75 points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.5 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 290 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 145 possible points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

These races will be about 22% shorter than typical Dover races, but there will still be plenty of dominator points up for grabs. Six of the last eight races here featured two drivers that led more than 100 laps with one of those races a third driver led 90 laps. In the other two races, one saw a driver run away from the field and lead 286 laps and the other had four drivers lead between 48 and 117 laps. I expect to see another two dominator race with at least one of the dominators coming from the top 3. The second dominator can come from anywhere within the top 15, but oddly enough there have been two races in the last eight where both dominators started in the top 3. Judging by the star studded top 3 for Saturday's race, rostering two of those drivers can be in play if you can tolerate the downside.

A couple of the previous Dover races have been absolute snoozers, which I hope we can avoid this weekend but we should be prepared for. Since it is only a 1 mile track, slow cars will get lapped in a hurry and we can see 10-15 cars finish more than 5 laps down just due to being slow, not because car trouble. We are going to want to take a hybrid approach from last week because we will need to nail our dominators, but finishing position will be very important also. We will want to roster at least four and as many as five drivers that can finish in the top 10 and our one value driver needs to be able to find their way into the top 20.

Stage 1: 70 laps, Stage 2: 115 laps, Stage 3: 126 laps

Competition Caution: Lap 25 on Saturday only

Lineup Foundation Targets

Chase Elliott ($10,000 DK, $12,600 FD)

Elliott is starting on the pole and that is the place to be at Dover. He will be joined on the front row by Denny Hamlin, with Martin Truex Jr. right behind him and to be honest, they will all be good plays on Saturday. Elliott, however, is the cheapest of the three and gets to choose where he starts the race, so I think he should be able to hold off the other two for the first 25 laps at least. He has been very good at Dover over the years with six top 5 finishes in the last eight races here, including a win and 294 total laps led (two races with over 100 laps led). This is one of the few races where you can pair him with either of the previously mentioned drivers or pick a different secondary dominator, but I love his price and his upside so Elliott will be the driver I want to build around.

Matt DiBenedetto ($7,400 DK, $8,500 FD)

DiBenedetto has been incredibly good this year and will be mispriced for both races this weekend. He has been a constant top 10 threat and that is exactly what we need from him this weekend. DiBenedetto has one top 10 finish at Dover in his career, but that was with his old team. This year he has seven top 10 finishes so far, including a 7th place finish at Martinsville and a 6th place finish at New Hampshire, both tracks that are not direct comparisons to Dover but are run with the same aero package.

Tournament Targets

Brad Keselowski ($9,700 DK, $12,000 FD)

I am going a little outside the box for my second dominator pick with Brad Keselowski starting 7th. I am not even going to pretend he has a good history here, with only two top 10s in the last six races here, but I do like his ability to lead laps even when he posts a subpar finish. Keselowski has led 39 or more laps in three of the last five Dover races, including one race with over 100 laps led. He also led 82 at Phoenix in February and 182 laps three weeks ago during his win in New Hampshire. I wouldn't consider Kes to be cash game safe considering his history here and the star studded top 10, but he has a ton of upside for a relatively cheap price.

Cole Custer ($7,300 DK, $8,400 FD)

I keep looking at the rookies for value and Cole Custer really stands out from the rest this weekend. He is starting 21st so he has his work cut out for him to try to get into the top 10 but he has the best combination of Xfinity and Cup finishes here and at similar tracks. Custer has four top 4 finishes including a win in his six Xfinity races here. He also posted an 8th and a 9th place finish this year at New Hampshire and Phoenix. Custer is a cheap option that is cash safe with GPP upside.

Matt Kenseth ($7,000 DK, $6,500 FD)

Kenseth has been absolutely brutal this season but there are very few drivers with his place differential potential on Saturday. He is starting 26th but has shown race winning potential in his previous life. Kenseth lands in the risky GPP play of the week with the same logic I used with Kyle Busch last week, something has to give. Kenseth is too good of a driver and he is in too good of equipment for him to continuously underperform. I want to be early on the Kenseth and I think he can right the ship on Saturday.

Bargain Basement

Ryan Preece ($5,700 DK, $4,000 FD)

We are looking for a top 15 from out bargain drivers this weekend and there are only a select few that have that type of upside. I am going with Preece over Ty Dillon because he is starting two places further back and actually has a 19th place finish to his name here.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Dover that have a chance to make some noise, in no particular order:

Denny Hamlin ($10,200 DK, $13,000 FD)

Kurt Busch ($8,300 DK, $10,300 FD)

Tyler Reddick ($7,100 DK, $7,800 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Ryan Blaney ($11,800 DK, $11,000 FD)

Blaney is the highest priced driver in the field but he is starting 20th at a track that isn't the easiest to pass at. We will need dominator potential from any of our studs and I don't expect Blaney to get up front at all and he would need just about a miracle to make perfect lineup on place differential only.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat! 

Be sure to download the Drydene 311 Cheatsheet and find me on Twitter. Good Luck!

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