Written by @joejets19

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Go Bowling 235 🏁

On Sunday, NASCAR will experience Daytona in a way they never have before, as a road course. The Go Bowling 235 will be held on Daytona's 3.61 mile, 14 turn road course that encompasses most of the traditional oval plus some sections of the infield. Nothing says 2020 like a Cup race being run on a track that only a handful of drivers have experience on (in non-stock cars) without any practice whatsoever. All I can say is this is going to be a spectacle, and probably not the week you want to place your rent money in DFS. Just like any summer day in Florida, there is a chance of pop-up storms but the teams will have rain tires and extra lights, so they should be able to get the entire race in.

On to Daytona!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 65 laps will be run this and 16.25 points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.5 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 60 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 30 possible points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

Let's address the elephant in the room right off the bat. There is no way to feel confident about anything going into this race. This is the first road course of the year and the first time it has ever been run in a NASCAR points race, so almost nothing will surprise me. As I have mentioned during previous Pitstops, not all road courses are alike and some drivers have a preferred track fit. They expect this track to race most similarly to the Roval, with Watkins Glenn being a moderately distant second. Since there is no direct track history to draw from, I focused mostly on the two Roval races and took a peek at Watkins Glenn as well.

This will be the shortest race of the season and dominator points will be almost non existent. Finishing position is king at road courses and I think it will be even more important than usual on Sunday. I don't expect it to be very easy to pass so we will want to front load our lineups more than ever before, with four to five drivers starting in the top 20, in the hopes of getting as many drivers finishing in the top 10 as possible. I expect the race winner to come from inside the top 10, so we will want to roster a driver or two starting from within that range.

The bargain basement is going to be tough sell for this race because those drivers will not have the raw speed to keep up with top tier cars and I can't imagine a driver finishing outside of the top 20 making the perfect lineup. In cash, you can make an argument for a punt if you want to fit in an extra stud but I believe a more balanced approach will be key to GPP success.

Stage 1: 15 laps, Stage 2: 15 laps, Stage 3: 35 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Alex Bowman ($8,200 DK, $9,100 FD)

The whole DFS NASCAR world is talking about Ryan Blaney but I like Bowman a whole lot more, starting three spots further back (27th) for a $2900 discount. Bowman has been eh over the few races at ovals, but he has been absolutely lights out at both races at the Roval, with two consecutive top five finishes and six straight top 15 finishes at road courses. Bowman is a cash game lock with tournament winning upside if he can find himself inside the top 10.

Michael McDowell ($7,000 DK, $6,500 FD)

I tried to hammer home that finishing position is paramount for this race...so naturally I highlight two drivers starting way back in the field. Since I envision these as cash game picks, I can't pass up the value of McDowell starting 30th. He is one of the most experienced drivers at this track, albeit in a different type of car, and is coming off of seven straight top 20 finishes at non-Sonoma road courses, with positive place differential in three of those races. McDowell needs a top 20 finish for 5x salary, so he provides a solid floor for an incredibly reasonable price.

Tournament Targets

Chase Elliott ($10,300 DK, $13,500 FD)

Elliott is a fantastic road course driver and, starting 7th, has some place differential potential compared to the other big names in the race. Elliott has won each of the last two road races (Roval '19 and Watkins Glenn '19) and has five top 6 finishes in the last six road course races overall. He is the third most expensive driver of the slate but is still reasonably priced and I love his ceiling on Sunday.

Clint Bowyer ($8,800 DK, $10,000 FD)

Bowyer is the exact type of driver I would avoid during regular races that could be very useful on Sunday. He is starting 12th, is relatively pricey and actually needed a top 5 finish to reach 5x value. He is great at road courses, however, and I think he is worth the risk. Bowyer has two straight top 5 finishes at the Roval and seven top 11 finishes in his last eight road races. The thing I love most about Bowyer is his ability to pick up spots at these types of races, with seven races with positive place differential in his last eight.

Kyle Busch ($9,800 DK, $11,000 FD)

This is entirely an irony play, but in a strange way it makes sense. Busch has been terrible (by his standards) since the break and is winless so far this season. Wouldn't it be perfectly 2020 for him to pick up his first win at a road race at a brand new track? His struggles have stemmed from his lack of practice, but this will be mitigated by the fact that he is one of the few drivers with experience on this track. Busch actually had two terrible races at the Roval and is starting fourth, so I think he will be the lowest owned driver in the top 4, giving us even more leverage. This is by no means a safe play, however, but has a chance to pay off big time if it pans out.

Bargain Basement

Ty Dillon ($5,800 DK, $4,500 FD)

I don't particularly like any driver in this range, but Dillon definitely has the highest ceiling....and the lowest floor. He has shown top 15 potential at Watkins Glenn and the Roval, which would definitely put him in the perfect lineup, but I would rather a more balanced approach if possible.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at the Daytona Road Course that have a chance to make some noise, in no particular order:

Cole Custer ($7,600 DK, $7,500 FD)

Rickie Stenhouse Jr ($6,500 DK, $6,000 FD)

Matt Kenseth ($6,700 DK, $5,500 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Brad Keselowski ($10,600 DK, $10,600 FD)

Keselowski will be a popular pick due to his 17th place starting position but I think he makes a fine tournament fade. His last two road races were impressive, with a 5th and 9th place finish. But overall, his track type history is relatively poor. Kes only had four top 10 finishes in his last 10 road races and only had five races with positive place differential during that time. I think he can pick up a few spots but don't think he will finish well enough to pay off his salary.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat! 

Be sure to download the Go Bowling 235 Cheatsheet and find me on Twitter. Good Luck!

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