Written by @joejets19

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FireKeepers Casino 400 🏁

NASCAR had a big week for themselves the past seven days. Last Sunday's race was one of the best ones of the year (to watch, DFS was not nearly as kind). Silly season has started early with drivers signing contracts and a team being sold, they released the final stretch of schedule and also made some changes to the lineup draw and restart procedure. Oh, and I forgot to mention the double feature we are treated to this weekend, starting with with FireKeepers Casino 400 from Michigan International Speedway in Brooklyn, MI. Michigan is a 2 mile, banked D-shaped oval that features wide corners and long straightaways. The track has a reputation for showcasing a car's raw power and the drivers with good equipment can separate themselves pretty quickly. This will be the first points race to feature the choose cone (or choose spray painted patch of pavement, which is not nearly as catchy of a name), which made its debut in the All-Star race this season. Just to bring you up to speed, during restarts every driver will get the choice of the inside or outside lane but they then have to start in that order for that lane. An example of this is if the first 5 drivers all choose to start on the outside but 6th driver chooses the inside, the 6th place driver will now start second (first car on the inside), essentially picking up four spots on the restart. Fox caught some slack on failing to highlight the choose cone enough during the All-Star race, but it should add an extra level of intrigue to restarts now. As of right now, both races should go off without a hitch but there is a small chance of rain Sunday afternoon.

On to Michigan!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 156 laps will be run this and 39 points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.5 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 135 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 67.5 possible points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

There are a couple of things I want to mention right off the top. This race is called the FireKeeper 400 but there are only 156 laps, which is 312 miles and 502 kilometers. It is entirely a branding issue but if anyone was wondering why either of theses races are labeled 400s, it is referencing the traditional length of these races, not the double-header length. Now moving on, we already know the starting lineup for the first race but the second race's starting lineup will be determined by the finishing order of the first. NASCAR will be doing the top 20 invert again on Sunday while the drivers that finished 21st-39th one Saturday will start in those positions Sunday.

I mentioned in the introduction that Michigan has a way of separating the fast cars from the slow , so we will really want to be focusing our player pool on high quality equipment and discount track history a touch. Races here are usually 200 laps, so we would normally get one driver that leads more than 100 laps and then a second driver that leads anywhere from 40-60. This weekend I don't think we will get a 100 lap leader unless someone completely runs away with it, so we will probably have to choose a more front heavy lineup than normal in the hopes of scooping up all of the possible laps led instead of just nailing dominators. Michigan is a track that provides a significant advantage to drivers starting in the top 3 for laps led potential, but not every driver that leads a bunch of laps or wins the race actually ends up in the perfect lineup. Finishing position is king at this racetrack and we are going to want to focus on drivers that can finish in the top 15 but have top 10 upside. The shortened race makes it even more important that we build our teams around drivers that can pick up a modest amount of spots but finish well because there are fewer fastest laps points available to balance out negative place differential.

The bargain basement is open at Michigan for the first time in years, but that has more to do with pricing than anything. There has only been one driver in the last 8 perfect lineups that was in truly sub-par equipment. The pricing on Saturday placed some quality drivers under $6000 and that is the only reason I would entertain dropping into that range.

Stage lengths for both races :

Stage 1: 40 laps, Stage 2: 45 laps, Stage 3: 71 laps

Competition cautions: Race 1- Lap 15, Race 2- no competition caution

Lineup Foundation Targets

Joey Logano ($9,700 DK, $11,400 FD)

Logano is starting on the pole but is the cheapest driver starting in the top 3. He has been sneaky fast this season but has some poor finishes due to self inflicted wounds and bad luck. Logano is the type of driver that always seems to find himself leading 20 laps and finishing in the top 10. Starting on the pole, we need him to lead about 50 and finish in the top 5 to guarantee a perfect lineup appearance. Three of the last eight perfect lineups had two drivers starting in the top 5, so don't be afraid to pair Logano with Hamlin/Harvick/Keselowski, their prices are reasonable enough that it won't hamstring your lineup too much.

Ty Dillon ($5,700 DK, $5,000 FD)

Dillon is one of those drivers whose price qualifies for the bargain basement but is in good enough equipment to not get blown away. Starting 34th, he is going to be very popular but I believe he is a much safer option than Preece and Lajoie (the other two inexpensive drivers starting near him). Ty has produced a positive place differential in five of the last six races here and six finishes of 22nd or better during his career at Michigan. He may not have top 15 potential so I would avoid him in satellites/qualifiers, but he should be a staple in any cash lineup.

Tournament Targets

Martin Truex Jr. ($10,800 DK, $12,800 FD)

I am going right back to the well this week with Truex. As I mentioned earlier, each of the top 3 drivers are a threat top dominate but reduced number of laps hurts their upside. Truex, on the other hand, is starting 12th on Saturday and has shown in the past that he can lead laps at Michigan when starting this far back. He has top 6 finishes in four of the last six races here and averaged 31.17 laps led per race during that time. A top 5 finish with 40 laps led will almost certainly land Truex in the perfect lineup....and also make him intriguing for Sunday (but lets not get ahead of ourselves).

Tyler Reddick ($7,200 DK, $8,000 FD)

A few weeks ago I called Reddick a top 10 threat until further notice and this is his time to shine. Starting 14th, he only needs a 9th place finish to score 40 DK pts on place differential only. Reddick has a fast car and a win here in Xfin. Throughout the course of the season, Reddick has proven that he can translate his Xfinity success to the Cup level and I expect him to do that again on Saturday.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr ($6,900 DK, $6,400 FD)

Stenhouse gets to return to his dedicated spot in the newsletter. He is starting 32nd and is fairly cheap considering his potential. Unfortunately, he has about equal potential of a top 10 as a 39th place finish, so there is always that. I worry that Stenhouse will be a popular option after his performance last race, but his track history is less than stellar. He has a negative place differential in each of the last five races here but that is due him qualifying well, not him wrecking. I think Stenhouse's ceiling is an 18th place finish which will be just about good enough for the perfect lineup.

Bargain Basement

Corey Lajoie ($5,600 DK, $4,000 FD)

Ty Dillon, Preece and Lajoie are starting 34th, 35th and 36th respectively, and I think Lajoie will be the lowest owned of the three. He may not have upside of the other two drivers but he definitely has a faster car than 6-8 drivers in front of him. With a decent strategy, he could sneak into the top 25 which would be a solid score for the price.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at the Michigan that have a chance to make some noise, in no particular order:

Austin Dillon ($7,500 DK, $7,700 FD)

Chris Buescher ($6,300 DK, $6,600 FD)

Erik Jones ($8,800 DK, $10,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Clint Bowyer ($7,400 DK, $9,000 FD)

Bowyer is starting 9th but hasn't turned in a top 10 performance in any of the last 6 races. I believe he might draw some ownership due to his recent win here but that was a rain-shortened fluke and his track history is downright awful.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat! 

Be sure to download the FireKeepers Casino 400 Cheatsheet and find me on Twitter. Good Luck!

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