Written by @joejets19

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NASCAR had the weekend off so we got to take a little breather before we get a crazy push toward the playoffs. Before we look into the race, I just wanted to throw this out there for anyone who believes in #narrativestreet, this is the 20th race of the 2020 season, so I am kind of expecting it to get a little funky. This week's race will take place at New Hampshire Motor Speedway in Loudon, New Hampshire. The track is a 1.058 mile flat oval and will feature the new lower downforce, higher HP aero package that is similar to the one used in 2017-2018. As of right now, the weather does not seem to be an issue but that can change at a moments notice.

On to Loudon!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 301 laps will be run this and 75.25 points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.5 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 261 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 130.5 possible points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

Like most weeks, we want to start building our lineups around dominators. The past six perfect lineups have featured two dominators almost exclusively, and each of those races have seen two drivers lead at least 83 laps. This is a track that heavily favors the front row. Each of the last six races had a driver starting in the front row lead at least 83 laps and the second dominator can be a bit of a wildcard, even though we will want to focus on drivers starting in the top 10.

Besides the two dominators, we will want to find two drivers that can finish in the top 10. These driver do not need to make huge moves, but they must finish well. Oddly enough, three of the last six perfect lineups had inexpensive drivers that started in the top 10 and were able to finish in the top 10, so don't be afraid to take a shot or two at a driver that you think may not have much of a chance to pick up spots but can still finish well.

Finally, we can roster two drivers that may not have top 10 potential but can at least pick up 7 spots. Obviously, these drivers are high price sensitive, so a bargain basement driver can make the perfect lineup by starting 32nd and finishing 25th, but we would need more expensive drivers to both pick up more spots and finish better.

Stage 1: 75 laps, Stage 2: 110 laps, Stage 3: 116 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Denny Hamlin ($10,400 DK, $13,400 FD)

There are going to be some very fast cars starting up front but I give the edge to Denny Hamlin on Sunday. He has consistently been showing up to the track with incredibly fast race cars and always seems to be in contention for a win. Hamlin will have his hands full starting next to Almirola, who is on a heater himself. But if he takes the lead early, he should be able to grab a bunch of laps-led. Don't discount Elliott starting third either, he also has had an incredible car since the break and has arguably performed better than the front row drivers in races that featured this aero-package.

Christopher Bell ($10,100 DK, $9,000 FD)

Draftkings can't figure out the right price for Bell to produce a fair amount of ownership, but I think he still might be a little expensive for most people's taste. I, on the other hand, have been plugging him in every chance I can get when he starts in the 30's and Sunday will be no different, when he starts 35th. Bell was great here during his run in Xfinity with two wins in his only two races at Loudon. He will need a top 15 and some fastest laps to have a chance to make the perfect lineup on DK, but I think he should be a cornerstone to every cash game lineup. Don't think I forgot about the FanDuel people, Bell is an all around lock on that site.

Tournament Targets

Martin Truex Jr. ($10,700 DK, $12,200 FD)

Truex is starting 11th and is a sneaky dominator option. Pricing this week makes it kind of hard to play the Truex/Hamlin/Bell in the same lineup, but he is the definition of a tournament pivot off of either driver. Truex has been the most consistent driver at Loudon over the past few years, posting 83 or more laps led in five of the last six and seven top-8 finishes in the last eight races here. He has some place differential potential as well as dominator potential, to make for a very potent tournament option.

Chris Buescher ($6,100 DK, $6,000 FD)

All eyes are going to be on Ryan Newman to provide value in this range, but I think the play is actually Chris Buescher, starting 24th. Buescher is less expensive than Austin Dillon and Newman who are both starting in front of him, but he arguably has better upside. This is more of a tournament-only play because he has been a bit snake bitten recently. But if he can stay clean, he has top 15 potential.

Kurt Busch ($7,700 DK, $10,000 FD)

Kurt Busch has been the model of consistency since the break, with nine top 10 finishes. He is incredibly cheap this week with a solid track history but what really draws me to him is the fact that he might go overlooked. I mentioned earlier that this is one of the few tracks that a cheap driver just needs to finish in the top 10 to make the perfect lineup and Busch is the perfect candidate for that role. This wouldn't be the risky pick of the week if he was incredibly safe, so any mishap and our lineups will be tanked. But overall, I think Kurt will be a low owned option that will help differentiate our lineups from the field.

Bargain Basement

Daniel Suarez ($5,900 DK, $4,500 FD)

Suarez is finally starting to heat up, with five-straight top 26 finishes. He is starting 37th and is reaching a price that makes him actually playable. Ty Dillon and Ryan Preece are both cheaper with more upside, but I do like Suarez's chances of making the perfect lineup if he runs a clean race, and he provides a safer floor for our lineups.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at the Loudon that have a chance to make some noise, in no particular order:

Chase Elliott ($9,100 DK, $12,700 FD)

Ty Dillon ($5,700 DK, $5,000 FD)

John H. Nemechek ($7,000 DK, $6,200 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Bubba Wallace ($6,500 DK, $6,300 FD)

Rolling with another Bubba fade. He has never finished in the top 10 here and consistently loses spots, usually taking others with him. Not a sexy pick but still a sound one.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat! 

Be sure to download the Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 Cheatsheet and find me on Twitter. Good Luck!

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