Written by @joejets19

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Sorry for the unplanned weekend off, my little guy decided to give my family a bit of a surprise. Let's be honest, Sunday's race was another mess, so if I had to miss one, that was a good one to miss. I am back and excited for another mid week night race, this time at Kansas Speedway. The track is a 1.5 mile variably banked tri-oval located in Kansas City, KS. As of right now, the weather is looking good for the race, with less than a 10% chance of rain for Thursday evening.

On to Kansas!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 267 laps will be run this and 66.75 points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.5 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 230 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 115 possible points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

There has been a trend over the last few races that is making NASCAR DFS very frustrating. Crew chiefs have caught on that this aero package makes passing incredibly difficult on 1.5 mile tracks and clean air is king. Therefore, they are utilizing the competition caution to implement varying pit strategies to get their drivers up front. That is an incredible real life strategy, but for DFS it is brutal because a once predictable race turns into utter chaos thirty laps in.

Now, why did I start this section off with a preamble? Kansas is one of those tracks that you can pencil the pole sitter in for at least 79 laps led (a benchmark achieved in 7 of the last 8 races here), but with a competition caution most likely coming between laps 20-30 it is no longer a guarantee that the pole sitter will lead the entire first stage by default. That doesn't mean he can't get back up front eventually, it just adds another wrinkle of anxiety over the course of the race. Races at Kansas will generally feature two drivers that lead more than 80 laps and the second dominator can literally come from anywhere (Hamlin led 153 laps after starting 23rd). We obviously want to focus our attention on drivers that have been fast at 1.5 mile tracks but we also need drivers that have finished well on them because, oddly enough, three of the last eight perfect lineups did NOT include one of the two main dominators.

Kansas is also a track where drivers can make big moves. After picking our one to two dominators, we need to focus on drivers that can either pick up 15 (that's right) spots or finish in the top 10. This criteria includes the bargain basement drivers, so if we are looking to take down a GPP on Thursday we are going to need drivers with major upside.

Stage 1: 80 laps, Stage 2: 80 laps, Stage 3: 107 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Kevin Harvick ($11,500 DK, $14,000 FD)

Harvick is the most expensive driver on both sites this week, but he is starting on the pole so I am going to do everything I can to jam him in. He has been arguably the best driver since the break and has eight top 10 finishes at intermediate tracks this season, including two wins. The last two times Harvick has started on the pole at Kansas, he led 79 and 104 laps. As I mentioned earlier, there is a possibility that track position will be jumbled by the competition caution, so you can make a case for a satelite/GPP fade but I will leave the guess work to everyone else and I will lock him into my cash teams.

Tyler Reddick ($8,300 DK, $8,800 FD)

I have been impressed by Reddick all season and his second place finish last week is only the beginning. Starting 23rd, Reddick checks both of the boxes we are looking for in place differential drivers. He has three-straight top 10 finishes at intermediate tracks and an average positive place differential of 18.7 in those races. He hasn't been unloading the fastest car every week but Reddick has combined strategy and skill to make his way toward the front.

Tournament Targets

Ryan Blaney ($9,900 DK, $11,000 FD)

Blaney is my top tournament dominator and the direct pivot off of Harvick. He has driven an absolute rocket ship the last two weeks, posting the best green flag average at both Texas and Kentucky and he ran the 5th best green flag average at Homestead. Blaney is also not afraid to gamble on pit strategy to get the clean air, so I would bet he will do the exact opposite of Harvick in the hopes of getting up front and staying there. Blaney is no stranger to getting himself in trouble at Kansas, which makes me nervous about rolling him out in cash games but he is in great form for the season and has as good of a chance as any to run away with a win.

Clint Bowyer ($7,500 DK, $9,600 FD)

Bowyer is in a tricky starting spot but his salary is what sold me on him. Starting 19th, a top 10 finish would net Bowyer a minimum of 43 DK points, which should be enough to get him in the perfect lineup considering his $7,500 salary. He has been very fast at the recent 1.5 mile tracks just like his teammates, but hasn't been able to translate speed into a top 10 finish. Bowyer has been very good at Kansas, however, with two top 10 finishes in the last two races here and I am looking for him to continue that streak.

Martin Truex Jr. ($10,600 DK, $12,700 FD)

I generally dislike writing up three pricey drivers but I would be remiss if I didn't mention Truex Jr as a potential race winner. At this point in his career, everyone touts Truex as the king of 1.5 mile tracks, and for good reason. But the real reason I think he can walk away with a W on Thursday is because of his success at day/night races. There is no driver better at adjusting his car throughout the race to compensate for changing track conditions and I think he will prove it again on Thursday.

Bargain Basement

Ryan Preece ($5,800 DK, $4,500 FD)

This pick is more about the pricing of the slate than the driver himself. DK only has four drivers priced >$10,000 so they really limited their options in the sub-$6,000 range. The only two viable options here are Lajoie and Preece, and well Preece already made history by finishing dead last in three consecutive races...there's no way he can make it four right? All kidding aside, Preece does have a somewhat flukey 12th place finish to his name here, but I don't expect a repeat of that. Instead, I just think it is much more likely for him to finish 20th here than Lajoie to finish 16th, so I am going to find the extra $100 for Preece and his higher upside.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at the Kansas that have a chance to make some noise, in no particular order:

Daniel Suarez ($6,100 DK, $5,000 FD)

Jimmie Johnson ($8,900 DK, $9,000 FD)

Christopher Bell ($8,100 DK, $8,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Bubba Wallace ($6,300 DK, $7,000 FD)

There aren't a bunch of low priced options with a high ceiling and I worry people will want to project that onto Bubba. He is starting 17th and only needs to pick up 3 spots to 5x his salary but he has been absolutely terrible at Kansas, with an average finish of 28.25 and only slightly better at similar tracks this year. He is not worth the risk and I will be looking other places for value.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat! 

Be sure to download the Super Start Batteries 400 Cheatsheet and find me on Twitter. Good Luck!

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