Written by @joejets19

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Quaker State 400 🏁

Last week's race at Indy was a complete sh*t show and I'm glad that is over. On Sunday, NASCAR is heading to Kentucky Speedway in Sparta, KY for the Quaker State 400 Presented by Walmart. Kentucky is a 1.5 mile banked tri-oval that was reconfigured before the 2016 seasons, so long term history will not be as helpful here compared to other tracks. Naturally, there is rain in the forecast for Sunday but there are lights at the track so all we can do is wait and see how this plays outs.

On to Kentucky!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 267 laps will be run this and 66.75 points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.5 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 120 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 116 possible points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

We are back at a cookie cutter 1.5 mile track, which used to be much more predictable than the other types of tracks. But without practice, life is not that easy. Since the reconfiguration, the winner of each race has started in the top four and led at least 40 laps. The driver starting on the pole has led at least 100 laps in three of the last four races here and all four pole-sitters have finished in the top 10. The recent races here have featured 1-2 dominators, typically with one driver leading more than 100 laps and a possible second driver that leads 75 or more. This is one of the very few tracks where rostering two, and even three, high priced drivers starting in the top 10 is a viable strategy.

If we are going to aim so top heavy, we need to be sure to pick the right place differential drivers. We will likely need to roster two to three low priced drivers that can pick up at least 10 spots. Unlike other weeks, these drivers don't need to finish in the top 10-15 to make the perfect lineup, they just need to pick up some spots.

Finally, we will have to expand our bargain basement for the first time in weeks. Two of the last four perfect lineups featured low priced drivers that finished 26th or worse and all four lineups had one driver that cost $6000 or less. These drivers must pick up a few spots but, overall, just need to be cheap.

Stage 1: 80 laps, Stage 2: 80 laps, Stage 3: 107 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Kyle Busch ($10,100 DK, $13,000 FD)

Every fiber of my being says to stay away from Kyle Busch this week because he has been terrible without practice, but he has every possible advantage this Sunday. He is sitting on the pole at a track that heavily favors the front row and he has an incredible history here. Busch is going to be very highly owned so if he has any mishap, close to half of lineups will be destroyed. So he makes for an interesting tournament fade, but I am going to play him in cash. He starts next to Joey Logano and in front of Kevin Harvick so if his car isn't on point, he will be passed pretty quickly. But neither one of those drivers have a great track record here and they usually need to find their groove throughout the race for success. If Busch doesn't break out of his slump here, I think his 2020 will be a lost cause.

Ryan Newman ($6,100 DK, $7,500 FD)

Newman has been a model of consistency, and starting 23rd, that is exactly what we need at this price point. He has shown top 20 green flag average speeds at similar tracks since the break and has four top 15 finishes at intermediate tracks this season. He is not a flashy pick but provides a cash game safe floor with potential tournament winning upside.

Tournament Targets

Christopher Bell ($11,200 DK, $9,000 FD)

Bell keeps getting shafted by the random draw but that's fine by me. He comes in as the second highest priced driver of the slate on DK and that alone has been enough to keep ownership in the 15-20% range even though he keeps starting in the mid 30s. On Sunday, Bell is starting 34th and has all race to reach his top 15 potential. He has three top 11 finishes this year at intermediate tracks and I love his chances to add another one this weekend. For him to get into the perfect lineup, we would need one to two lower priced drivers to dominate, but I think this is the perfect week to go overweight on our place differential drivers and then sprinkle in our dominator options for tournaments.

Tyler Reddick ($8,200 DK, $8,000 FD)

For a more balanced approach, and as a GPP pivot off of Bell, Tyler Reddick provides some very interesting options on Sunday. Reddick is starting 24th and already has five top 15 finishes this season at intermediate tracks. He has a very fast car and a ton of skill, so a top 10 finish is not out of the question on Sunday. What makes him intriguing is Reddick and Bell both need top 11 finishes to 5x their respective salaries and I think Reddick has a better chance of pulling that off.

Martin Truex Jr. ($9,200 DK, $12,300 FD)

Truex is the king of 1.5 mile tracks, so he is always on my radar when they roll around. Add to that his two wins in the last four races here and five top 10 finishes at intermediate tracks this season and we have ourselves a nice tournament play. The risky part is a top 10 finish isn't going to cut it without some laps led. He is getting a massive price discount, which is nice, but with his 9th place starting position he will not have enough place differential points to land in the perfect lineup without getting up front for a stretch. He had the fastest green flag average at Atlanta and the first Charlotte race, so he has speed in his car, we just need him to put it all together on Sunday.

Bargain Basement

John Hunter Nemechek ($5,300 DK, $5,500 FD)

Nemechek is, by far, one of the riskiest drivers in his price range due to his starting position of 22nd, but he is in GPP consideration. It is almost impossible to find a driver in his price range with top 30 upside but Nemechek has shown he can find his way into the top 15, including a 9th place finish at Darlington. He has a very real floor of -10 DK points, so I don't like him in cash, but sometimes you have to hold your nose when you are trying to take down a big tournament.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at the Kentucky that have a chance to make some noise, in no particular order:

Ryan Blaney ($9,800 DK, $11,000 FD)

Michael McDowell ($5,700 DK, $6,000 FD)

Erik Jones ($8,400 DK, $10,400 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Chris Buescher ($5,900 DK, $7,000 FD)

I don't think Buescher will be a highly owned play on Sunday, but I know I won't have any of him. He does have a top finish of 10th place here, which would be enough to pay off his salary. But this season he has been pretty bad at 1.5 mile tracks and I don't need the risk considering his 13th place starting position.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat! 

Be sure to download the Quaker State 400 Cheatsheet and find me on Twitter. Good Luck!

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