Written by @joejets19

Join the LineStar NASCAR Chat for info from experts.

Download the Pocono Organics 325 Cheatsheet

Pocono Organics 325 🏁

NASCAR has been having a tough time getting one race complete on schedule, so this weekend they are upping the ante and running a double header. Both races will take place at Pocono Raceway in Long Pond, PA, which is a 2.5 mile flat triangular track known as the "Tricky Triangle." This week's newsletter will focus on Saturday's race, the Pocono Organics 325, but I will provide updates throughout the weekend. Drivers must use the same car for both races but can do minor servicing between races. I expect there to be a decent amount of drivers that have to drop to the rear Sunday for unapproved adjustments, so that will be something to keep an eye on. The Sunday race's starting lineup will be set by inverting the top 20 from Saturday and the drivers who finished 21st-40th will start in those spots on Sunday. As always, weather may be an issue so we will have to monitor that.

On to Pocono!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 130 laps will be run on Saturday and 140 will be run on Sunday and 32.5/35 points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.5 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 110/120 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 55/60 possible points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

Pocono is a race track that I can never get a good read on. The perfect lineups resemble road courses more than ovals, but drivers who do well at flat or intermediate tracks do well here. There will be so few laps run during each race (130/140) that we will want to focus on finishing position primarily, then place differential and finally dominator potential. We will want drivers that can finish in the top 15 with positive place differential or laps led. Only four out of the last 42 drivers that were in the perfect lineup have finished worse than 15th, and those drivers finished 16, 16, 17 and 22nd and picked up at least 5 spots.

Dominators are going to be tough to nail down this weekend. I don't think we will see a single driver lead more than 100 laps in either race but there is a chance we get two drivers that lead 40-50 laps. Does that technically make this a two dominator race? The answers is possibly on Saturday, probably not on Sunday. Due to the way the field was set, there may not be too many drivers in the rear of the field that can pick up enough spots to counteract 50 laps led and a good finish. There are sure to be some fast drivers that finish poorly on Saturday that can make a big run on Sunday, so I think the approach is to play 1-2 dominator lineups on Saturday and then 0-1 dominator lineups on Sunday. DraftKings has been really aggressive with their dynamic pricing for the second races since the break, so I'm thinking they will try to force us to make some tough decisions for Sunday's race.

Saturday Stage 1: 25 laps, Stage 2: 52 laps, Stage 3: 53 laps

Sunday Stage 1: 30 laps, Stage 2: 55 laps, Stage 3: 55 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Kevin Harvick ($10,100 DK, $14,000 FD)

Harvick has been incredibly consistent at Pocono, with six top 6 finishes in his last seven races here with at least 30 laps led in three of the last four. He is starting 9th on Saturday so he will need to do some work to get up front, but it also gives him some built in place differential potential. Since the break, Harvick has been incredibly fast (minus his hiccup at Homestead) and I think he will be a force to be reckoned with all weekend.

Erik Jones ($7,100 DK, $10,000 FD)

Jones will be a popular play starting 19th. He has been fantastic at Pocono, with three straight top 5 finishes and five top 8s in his last 6. There is some serious speed in Jones' car right now, with 27 fastest laps at Homestead and 15 fastest laps at Atlanta. If he can pair that with a top 10 finish on Saturday, he will be on his way to the perfect lineup.

Tournament Targets

Ryan Blaney ($9,000 DK, $11,800 FD)

Blaney has been on an incredible run since the break and I am looking for it to continue this weekend. He is starting second and is my top dominator pick for Saturday. I actually think Kyle Busch will get most of the ownership due to his track history and deflated price but I think Hamlin/Blaney are the top dominator choices. Blaney has seven top 12 finishes in the last eight races here, including a win. He has not been able to lead too many laps at Pocono but that can be attributed to poor starting positions rather than ability. Overall, I think Blaney gets around Almirola pretty quickly and has a chance to win the first and possibly second stage.

Tyler Reddick ($7,400 DK, $8,400 FD)

I will continue to ride Reddick until he decides to disappoint. We want to focus on finish position for this race and Reddick has top 10 potential for cheap. He is starting 15th and has two top 10 finishes here in Xfinity and four top 10 finishes for the season.

William Byron ($8,400 DK, $10,400 FD)

Byron is expensive and starting pretty far forward, so this pick can go wrong for many reasons. He has been very good here, one of his best tracks, with three-straight top 9 finishes. He is starting 16th and is a solid pivot off of Jones who is starting three spots behind him at a discount. Byron needs to pull off a top 8 finish to reach value and if he can pull that off, has a decent chance of landing in the perfect lineup.

Bargain Basement

Michael McDowell ($5,500 DK, $5,000 FD)

McDowell and Preece are the only two drivers in this range that have any ability to finish in the top 15. Preece is the cash play because he is starting 30th and I like McDowell for GPPs because he has a better chance of pulling off the finish we need. I would avoid having too much exposure to just about everyone else in this range.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at the Pocono that have a chance to make some noise, in no particular order:

Chase Elliott ($10,700 DK, $12,200 FD)

Chris Bell ($11,100 DK, $8,000 FD🔒)

Cole Custer ($6,400 DK, $6,900 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Aric Almirola ($7,300 DK, $9,000 FD)

Going to make this one short and sweet, there is enough value in the field to fade Almirola entirely. He only has two top 10 finishes in fifteen races at Pocono and grand total of two laps led in that time.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat! 

Be sure to download the Pocono Organics 325 Cheatsheet and find me on Twitter. Good Luck!

🚨 Get 3 Free Months of LineStar Premium 🚨

Get 3-months of LineStar Premium for new users to SuperDraft who deposit/play $10!

Terms: Partnership offers do NOT renew. See SuperDraft landing page for full terms and conditions. Must be a new user to SuperDraft and deposit and play a minimum of $10 to qualify. If you have an existing LineStar Premium subscription you get a Hat/Tee/Pen combo instead of the 3-months.