Written by @joejets19

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Geico 500 🏁

Weather was the biggest story of Sunday's race (besides my terrible fade) but we are looking ahead to beautiful conditions as NASCAR heads to Talladega Superspeedway in Lincoln, AL for the GEICO 500. Talladega is a 2.66 mile D-shaped superspeedway that is steeply banked and incredibly fast. After the Newman's horrifying crash in Daytona, NASCAR reconfigured their superspeedway aero package by knocking the horsepower down to 510 (from 550) and eliminating the aeroducts in the hopes of limiting the car's top speed (hopefully below 200 mph). There will be a lot of feeling out during the first stage, and I wouldn't be surprised if there was a ton of single file racing early on. Things are guaranteed to heat up and it looks like NASCAR is trying to encourage pack racing, which opens the door for a "Big One" on Sunday.

On to Talladega!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 188 laps will be run and 47 points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.5 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 150 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 75 possible points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

If you are new to the newsletter or NASCAR DFS in general, the strategy for Superspeedway races (Daytona and Talladega) turns everything you have ever known on its head. These races are not for the feint of heart and are tailor made for GPPs, but you can play a sound cash strategy also. This continues to be one of the few races I will enter the mini-Max because there is still a crazy edge that can be exploited by practicing good risk management. These races are focused around the "Big One" which is a crash that takes out a sizable amount of the field. These massive wrecks tend to happen towards the front of the field and gobble up a ton of cars immediately behind it, but can be avoided by drivers much further back. For this reason, a solid cash strategy is to roster all drivers starting 30th or worse because if one or two of these "Big Ones" occur, these drivers have the least downside but can also propel even the worst cars into the top 10.

In tournaments, Talladega differs from Daytona because the entire field is in play. I hate to say it, but to take down a GPP you will most likely need at least one driver starting in the top 10. This is an incredibly risky proposition but it is why an MME strategy is the best approach to superspeedways. I wouldn't roster more than one driver in the top 10, and wouldn't have more than 10-15% exposure to any specific top 10 driver. We don't worry about dominators at Talladega because only two drivers in the last eight races here have led more than 50 laps and ended up in the perfect lineup. Drivers starting in the teens are a bit of a crapshoot here too, but most likely a necessary evil. Again, I would advocate for some exposure to each driver (depending on how many lineups you play) but not more than 15% on any individual driver. The bulk of our lineups should focus on drivers starting 20th or worse with at least three and as many as five such drivers in a lineup. There are going to be some ugly lineups this weekend with unusually low scores. The key to Talladega is to limit our downside and give us as many opportunities to have lineups with all six drivers finishing the race.

It is also important to mention that salary will not be a factor on Sunday and don't be afraid to leave anywhere from $2,000-$8,000 on the table, especially since most of the drivers starting in the rear of the field are very cheap.

Stage 1: 55 laps, Stage 2: 55 laps, Stage 3: 78 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Brendan Gaughan ($7,600 DK, $5,000 FD)

Gaughan is gaining traction as a Superpeedway specialist but that's ok, he is a cash game lock on Sunday. At this point in his career, Gaughan only races four times a year (twice at Talladega and Daytona) but he makes the most of his opportunities, with six top 20 finishes in his last ten races. He is starting 39th and will score 3 DK pts even if he finishes dead last, which is actually a solid floor considering his upside. There is a chance that Gaughan is the highest owned driver of the slate but I will definitely want to use him as a driver to build around.

Ryan Preece ($6,200 DK, $7,200 FD)

Preece has shown some savvy at Superspeedways in his short Cup career, with three top 20 finishes, two of which coming at Talladega last year. He is starting 31st, just one spot behind where he started both races in 2019, and he has shown the ability to finish in the top 10. Preece is not exactly a sexy pick, but another safe cash game option with GPP winning upside.

Tournament Targets

Ty Dillon ($7,100 DK, $6,800 FD)

I am going to continue with my theme here and roll out another driver starting in the 30s, Ty Dillon. Starting 33rd, Dillon has legitimate top 15 upside with three top 15 finishes in the last four races at Talladega and a career-worst finish here of 17th. He is very consistent at Superspeedways and has three top 10 finishes at Daytona too, which proves he is racing with just about as much skill as luck.

Corey Lajoie ($6,500 DK, $4,000 FD)

Lajoie is another driver that is featured during Superspeedway Pitstops that we don't see too often during the year. He is priced up and starting 25th, which actually makes him a very intriguing GPP play. Lajoie raced very well at Talladega is 2019, finishing 11th and 7th while landing on the perfect lineup for each race. He is a much riskier option for Sunday because of his starting position but I am hoping that will just scare people off of him.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($8,400 DK, $10,100 FD)

There is actually a little poetic justice in the fact that the most volatile driver in NASCAR actually thrives at its most volatile tracks. Stenhouse has three top 10 finishes in his last four races at Talladega and eight tops 10s here in his entire career, including a win. Starting 20th, safety is almost entirely out the window, but when we are looking for GPP winning upside, Stenhouse is firmly in the conversation.

Cream of the Crop

Joey Logano ($10,200 DK, $13,000 FD)

In a Pitstop entirely devoted to cheap drivers, I like to highlight at least one expensive driver worth consideration. Logano is starting 9th and has race winning ability. He is incredibly risky, just like everyone else in the top 10, but has a very impressive Talladega resume with five top 5 finishes in his last seven races here including two wins. He is also no stranger to the front of the pack, with at least 10 laps led in six of the last seven races here. He is my favorite driver in the top 10 and the only driver I would consider having about 20% exposure to in that range.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at the Talladega that have a chance to make some noise, in no particular order:

Matt DiBenedetto ($7,800 DK, $8,100 FD)

JJ Yeley ($4,800 DK, $3,000 FD)

Aric Almirola ($6,800 DK, $11,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Denny Hamlin ($9,200 DK, $12,700 FD) and Martin Truex Jr. ($9,000 DK, $11,300 FD)

I am fading the front row on Sunday. Neither driver has been exceptionally good at Talladega and there hasn't been a front row driver in the perfect lineup in the last eight races here. These drivers have the most to lose and a relatively small ceiling. I could see a scenario where one of the two drivers leads most of the first stage but they would still need to hold on to a top 5 finish to land in the perfect lineup. Overall, these drivers are not worth the risk.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Geico 500 Cheatsheet and find me on Twitter. Good Luck!

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