Written by @joejets19

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Dixie Vodka 400 🏁

We had another exciting short track race on Wednesday and we are right back to racing on Sunday. NASCAR heads down to Homestead-Miami Speedway in Homestead FL for the Dixie Vodka 400. The track is a 1.5 mile banked oval with decently high tire wear. This will be the first time since 2001 that a non-championship race will be run at Homestead, so it will be very interesting to see if this race plays out any differently than previous ones. Weather will also be an issue for this race. It's Miami, so there is a 50% chance of thunderstorms until Friday.

On to Homestead!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 267 laps will be run and 66.75 points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.5 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 237 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 118.5 possible points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

It feels like DraftKings is almost begging us to play stars and scrubs lineups. There are 10 drivers priced more than $9,000 and 13 (!) drivers priced at $6000 or below, opening the door to three dominator lineups. Due to the way the field is being set, all but two of the expensive drivers are starting in the top 10, so they will need to lead laps to pay off their salaries. In previous races at Homestead we wanted to focus on the four championship drivers, but that strategy will not help us this weekend. Instead we should focus on recent history (especially last Sunday's race in Atlanta) to see who has speed in their intermediate track cars and who has been able to manage tire wear. We generally see 1-2 dominators per race at Homestead, with one driver leading more than 100 laps and a second driver leading 70+ laps. There is also a chance of no major dominator, in those races three high priced drivers made the perfect lineup due to their cumulative laps led and place differential. Overall, we will want to build 2-3 dominator lineups to give us a chance at collecting as many laps led as possible. We will focus on the top three for one dominator, but any driver in the top 12 can get up front and lead laps.

This is one of the few tracks where just picking up a couple of spots can land a driver in the perfect lineup. Obviously we would like drivers to pick up places and finish well, but drivers in previous perfect lineups haven't needed to make massive moves. Overall, I want to target 2-3 drivers that can pick up at least 5 spots and finish in the top 25, with finishing position being more important than number of places gained.

The bargain basement is open for this race and I wouldn't be surprised if we see two drivers in the perfect lineup that cost less than $6,000. There are low priced drivers scattered throughout the starting lineup so it all depends on how much risk you are willing to tolerate.

Stage 1: 80 laps, Stage 2: 80 laps, Stage 3: 107 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Kevin Harvick ($11,800 DK, $14,500 FD)

Harvick is the highest priced driver on the slate on both sites for good reason. He has finished fourth or better in each of the last six races here and has a top 10 finish in each of the last 12. He is starting 7th so he will have some work to do to get out front, but he has shown the ability to lead laps starting as far back as 13th. He destroyed the field on Sunday with 151 laps led at Atlanta after starting 9th and has two wins at intermediate tracks so far this season. He may not end up being the major dominator but he definitely should be a cash cornerstone with GPP winning upside.

Cole Custer ($6,000 DK, $6,400 FD)

Custer is cheap and starting 35th. He literally can't post a negative score and has a better car than at least 10 drivers starting in front of him. In Xfinity, he has a win and two second place finishes at Homestead and he has been very solid at intermediate tracks this season, posting four top 20 finishes in seven races. Custer checks all the boxes of a cash game place differential driver: cheap, high floor and high ceiling.

Tournament Targets

Joey Logano ($10,700 DK, $13,000 FD)

You can make an argument that the top 7 cars this year are starting in the top 7 for Homestead and someone is going to have to lead the laps. Logano is starting second and is by no means a lock to be a dominator, but he has the highest chance in the top 5. Logano shares the front row with Denny Hamlin, who has only led more than 2 laps once in four races here when he started on the pole. I will be attacking this slate by going way overweight on my place differential drivers and then sprinkling ownership on dominators and Logano will be a priority in my dominator pool.

Tyler Reddick ($7,300 DK, $8,300 FD)

This rookie class has been very impressive this season and Reddick has been the standout. He won two of the three races he's run here during his time in Xfinity and posted two top 10 finishes at intermediate tracks this season. I was expecting more out of him in Atlanta, but he ran a good race (he was in the top 15 for 41% of the race) and I am expecting him to improve on that on Sunday.

John H. Nemechek ($5,300 DK, $6,000 FD)

This pick is an incredibly risky satellite/qualifier only options, but Custer will be one of the highest owned drivers on the slate and Nemechek offers a high risk, high reward pivot. Nemechek is starting 18th and will be able to produce 5x his salary if he picks up one spot and will produce 5x Custer's salary if he picks up two spots. Nemechek has two top 6 finishes here in the Xfinity series and two top 15 finishes at intermediate tracks this season. Keep in mind, a driver can lose points just as fast as he gains them and Nemechek has an incredibly low floor if something were to go wrong.

Bargain Bin

Michael McDowell ($5,200 DK, $5,000 FD)

Its almost sad how consistent McDowell has been this season and his price is still this low. He has put up at least 29 points in each of the last seven races except one and finished better than 25th in 10 of the 11 races this season. There is zero reason to play anyone less expensive.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at the Homestead that have a chance to make some noise, in no particular order:

Kyle Busch ($10,100 DK, $13,700 FD)

Martin Truex Jr ($11,400 DK, $13,300 FD)

Aric Almirola ($6,300 DK, $8,500 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Denny Hamlin ($10,400 DK, $12,200 FD)

Hamlin has been incredibly disappointing at Homestead when starting on the pole, leading a total of 43 laps and having an average finish of 10.25 in those races. He has run decently well at intermediate tracks this year, with four top 5 finishes including a win but only has a total of 12 laps led. I will not be rolling out a full fade on Hamlin but probably won't have too much more than 10% exposure to him in tournaments.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat! 

Be sure to download the Dixie Vodka 400 Cheatsheet and find me on Twitter. Good Luck!

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