Written by @joejets19

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Blue Emu Maximum Pain Relief 500 🏁

NASCAR is giving us a treat with a mid-week, prime time, short track race as they travels to Martinsville Speedway in Ridgeway, VA for the Blue Emu Maximum Pain Relief 500. "The Paperclip" is a 0.526 mile flat oval with very little banking and two track surfaces (concrete and asphalt). I was incredibly excited for this race until I saw the weather. Rain is in the forecast from Tuesday to Thursday night, so hopefully they can find a way to squeeze this race in.

On to Martinsville!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 500 laps will be run and 125 points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.5 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 430 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 215 possible points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

For this race, just like many others, we are going to want to build our lineups around dominators. Dominators will be tricky this week, with anywhere from one to three drivers leading more than 100 laps in the last seven races at Martinsville. The last three races here featured one driver that led more than 300 laps, but two to three dominator lineups were more frequent in the long term. Starting on the pole does not seem to have a distinct advantage, with only one driver in the last seven races leading more than 100 laps when starting first, but we will want to have at least one driver and as many as two drivers starting in the top 5 that can either win or lead laps. I wouldn't extend my dominator pool too far outside the top 10. Drivers have come from that far back to dominate but it does not happen frequently.

Instead of place differential drivers, we need to focus on drivers with top 15 potential. It would be nice to find drivers that pick up a bunch of places and finish well, but when in doubt, I would prefer a driver that can only pick up 5 spots and finish inside the top 15 rather than pick up 10 spots and only pick up a top 20. We are going to aim for three to four drivers that can finish in the top 15, with top 10 upside.

The bargain basement is open on Wednesday. Finishing position is not as important for these drivers as long as its in the top 30 with positive place differential. Depending on how many dominators we are trying to roster, we should target 0-2 bargain basement drivers.

Stage 1: 130 laps, Stage 2: 130 laps, Stage 3: 240 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Ryan Blaney ($8,400 DK, $11,500 FD)

Starting on the pole does not guarantee 100 laps led at Martinsville, but at his price, Blaney doesn't need to lead that many to end up in the perfect lineup. He crushed everyone's dreams (and lineups) after spinning in Bristol, so I hope that will lower his ownership, but Blaney has legitimate top 5 potential. He is in fantastic recent form, with three top five finishes in his last four races and is good at Martinsville too, with a top 8 finish in four of his last five here. As long as Blaney leads fifty laps, finishes in the top 5 and adds some fastest laps along the way, he should be a solid base to build a lineup around.

Chris Buescher ($5,600 DK, $6,500 FD)

I am starting to think I have a Chris Buescher problem, but his price and starting position (24th) really jumped out at me for this race. He is cheaper than Ty Dillon, Ryan Preece and Cole Custer but has a similar upside. Buescher is starting further forward than those other drivers but I think that can actually be a benefit for this race because passing might not be the easiest, so there will be more of a chance he lands a top 15. He has three top 13 finishes here in the last six with no finishes worse than 23rd. There aren't a bunch of drivers to love in the mid-range, so Buescher helps balance those 2-3 dominator lineups.

Tournament Targets

Kyle Busch ($10,700 DK, $14,500 FD)

All eyes are going to be on Truex Jr. and Keselowski after last year's performances, but I think Kyle Busch is the driver best set up to dominate. Busch is hungry after an uncharacteristically slow start to the season and ran well here in 2017/2018 when the aero package was most similar to this year's set up. He has also shown the ability to lead laps when starting further back in the field, which makes me slightly less worried about his starting position of 7th. Oh, and did I mention he has an average finish of 4.11 in his last nine races here including eight top 5s? At this point I refuse to miss out on the Kyle Busch breakout race and Martinsville sets up very well for him.

Ryan Preece ($5,700 DK, $5,500 FD)

Preece has been an underrated short track racer at the Cup level. In eight short track races so far, he has five top 20 finishes with his best finish of 12th coming this year at Bristol. Starting 28th, he is a fairly safe driver with top 15 potential, providing great value in a week we may need it.

Austin Dillon ($6,100 DK, $7,300 FD)

Dillon is on baby watch, so this play is a little tricky. If Dillon starts the race but has to leave at any point, he will still accrue DK points. If Dillon's replacement starts the race (AJ Allmendinger), then Allmendinger will accrue DK points and Dillon will not. Lucky for us, they are priced within $100 of each other and they are both very good at Martinsville. I am looking for Dillon to cash in on some new baby mojo and pull off a top 14 finish, something he was able to do in four of his last eight races here.

Bargain Bin

Michael McDowell ($5,100 DK, $4,000 FD)

I am just going to leave his name here at this point. McDowell's price just keeps dropping even though he only has one finish worse than 24th this season. He also races well here, with a top 25 finish in 6/8 including two top 20s. We may not actually need this much salary relief but it's nice to know we have him in our back pocket.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at the Martinsville that have a chance to make some noise, in no particular order:

Matt Kenseth ($8,000 DK, $7,800 FD)

Brad Keselowski ($9,500 DK, $13,500 FD)

Joey Logano($9,900 DK, $12,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Jimmie Johnson ($12,500 DK, $10,200 FD)

Johnson's salary is insane on DK. He is starting 21st so he would make for a solid place differential driver, but anything short of a win will fail to land him in the perfect lineup. He is also pretty bad here, with two top 10s in his last 11 races at Martinsville.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat! 

Be sure to download the Blue Emu Maximum Pain Relief 500 Cheatsheet and find me on Twitter. Good Luck!

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