Written by @joejets19

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Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 🏁

After one hell of a race at Bristol, we needed that Wednesday off to regroup. But now we kick off another 3 race in 8 day stretch with the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500. The race will be held at Atlanta Motor Speedway in Hampton, GA and is actually the race that was scheduled to be run the weekend COVID suspended the season. Atlanta is a 1.54 mile steeply banked quad oval and it features a fairly smooth surface, which limits the cautions (an average of 4.75 cautions per race for the last four races). We are looking at a beautiful Sunday for racing, so weather should not be an issue.

On to Atlanta!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 325 laps will be run and 81.25 points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.5 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 295 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 147.5 possible points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

The Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 is one of the few 500 mile races at a 1.5(4) mile track on the NASCAR schedule. Under normal circumstances, the extra laps at a relatively predictable track provides an extra edge, but our lives are never that easy because picking a dominating car is tough when there aren't any practice sessions. Speaking of dominators, were are going to want to only target one to two dominators per lineup this week. There has only been one driver in each of the last four races that led more than 100 laps, and only three of those drivers ended up in the perfect lineup. We will want to focus on the top 10 for our dominator, with a slight edge to drivers starting in the top 3, but starting in the front row does not guarantee a ton of laps led. Most perfect lineups had a second high priced driver that either won or led some laps and finished in the top 2.

Place differential is where we are going to want to focus much of our attention this Sunday, and drivers have a ton of laps to make big moves. We are going to want three to four drivers starting worse than 15th that can either finish in the top 10 or pick up 10 or more places.

Finally, this is another race where low priced drivers are in play, with three of the last four perfect lineups featuring one driver that cost less than $6,000. We are going to want to target drivers in this range that we think can pick up a few spots and finish at least in the top 30. This is generally a very low attrition race, so these drivers usually have to pick up spots by skill/strategy as opposed to just surviving.

Stage 1: 85 laps, Stage 2: 85 laps, Stage 3: 155 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Chase Elliott ($9,900 DK, $12,300 FD)

At first glance, pricing looked fairly normal this weekend. But when I dug a little deeper, there are a good number of drivers drastically underpriced. At this point in the season, Elliott has proven that he is a $10,500+ driver and I love the fact that I can get him for a mere $9,900. He is starting on the pole (which does not guarantee domination but does give him a leg up on the field) and has finished in the top 4 in three of the last four races at intermediate tracks (both races at Darlington and Charlotte). He has consistently had one of the fastest cars since coming back from the break and is racing to prove himself yet again after a late race stumble with Joey Logano on Sunday.

Cole Custer ($6,100 DK, $5,500 FD)

Place differential is going to be important on Sunday and Custer provides both the salary relief and upside required for both cash and tournament builds. Starting 31st, Custer easily has a better car than three to four drivers starting ahead of him and has the skill to sneak his way into the top 20 over the long run. He has three top 20 finishes this year at intermediate tracks and two top 10 finishes here during his time in Xfinity. He may actually go a bit overlooked because he has a lower ceiling than Christopher Bell, who is starting 27th, but he provides a nice floor at a decreased salary for cash and hopefully lower ownership for GPPs.

Tournament Targets

Kevin Harvick ($11,700 DK, $14,000 FD)

Harvick is the most expensive driver of the slate for just the second time this season. He has been an absolute monster at Atlanta, with a win and more than 100 laps led in six of the last eight races here. Harvick starts 9th, so he will have some work to do before he gets up front. But I think he has a chance to lead from the second stage forward. He has been one of the most consistent drivers of the season, with a top 11 finish in each race this year, but that won't be enough to pay off his hefty salary. We will need Harvick to lead a significant amount of laps for him to be in the perfect lineup but I think he is the most likely driver in the $10,000+ range to dominate on Sunday.

Brad Keselowski ($8,900 DK, $13,200 FD)

I can't remember the last time Keselowski was priced below $9,000 and I refuse to pass up the opportunity. He has won two of the last three races at Atlanta and posted a positive place differential in each of his last five races here. Keselowski is starting 6th, so he pretty much needs a top 3 to pay off his salary. But at this price, a win and 20 laps led is all he will need to land in the perfect lineup. While I don't think it's the optimal strategy, you can actually fit Harvick/Kyle Busch, Elliott and Kes with three place differential drivers to make a decent looking lineup, but that would be an incredibly high risk, high reward strategy.

Tyler Reddick ($8,300 DK, $7,800 FD)

The rookies in this race are really catching my eye and I think Reddick is a great place differential play. He is relatively expensive, which makes him more risky than I would like. But starting 24th, he certainly has top 10 potential. Reddick has three top 10 finishes and has not finished worse than 18th at an intermediate track this season. He was not the best here during his Xfinity career, but an average driver rating of 108.9 indicates he raced better than he finished. Reddick shapes up to be a much better play on FD than DK but he is absolutely a tournament consideration on both sites.

Bargain Bin

Michael McDowell ($5,200 DK, $4,000 FD)

There are so few viable options in this range that it is a good idea to keep the player pool small down here. McDowell has a better car than at least 7 drivers starting ahead of him and starting 36th, that is good enough for a top 30. He has only one finish worse than 25th at intermediate tracks this season and easily has top 25 potential as long as he stays clean.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at the Atlanta that have a chance to make some noise, in no particular order:

Matt Kenseth ($8,100 DK, $7,000 FD)

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($7,600 DK, $6,600 FD)

Kyle Busch ($11,200 DK, $13,500 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Ryan Blaney ($8,500 DK, $10,500 FD)

Blaney has been one of the hottest drivers since the break but he reminded us all on Sunday that he is still prone to make mistakes. Blaney is starting 7th, which is kind of in no-mans-land, too far forward to be a place differential driver but not far forward enough to guarantee laps led. He has never finished better than 12th here and I don't expect big things out of him on Sunday

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat! 

Be sure to download the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 Cheatsheet and find me on Twitter. Good Luck!

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