Written by @joejets19

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Supermarket Heroes 500 🏁

I am glad Wednesday/Thursday's race is over because that thing started ugly and finished worse. We get our first short track of the season on Sunday when NASCAR travels to Bristol Motor Speedway in Bristol, Tennessee for the Supermarket Heroes 500. Bristol is a steeply banked 0.533 mile oval. It has two pit roads and is actually a stadium track (which would be cooler if fans were in attendance). Weather will not be an issue for once and it looks like DK/FD pricing was determined before the lineup was set, so we have a traditionally priced slate.

On to Bristol!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 500 laps will be run and 125 points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.5 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 425 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 212.5 possible points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

There are a ton of dominator points up for grabs on Sunday and we are going to need to scoop up almost all of them if we are going to take down a GPP. Five of the last eight races at Bristol had two drivers lead more than 100 laps and an additional two races had three drivers that led that many. The first place we are going to want to look for dominators is the front row. Six of the last eight perfect lineups had at least one driver from the front row and the two other perfect lineups had the driver starting third. Starting position is important for domination, so we will want to target two to three drivers starting in the top 15 (including one driver in the top 3) that we think can lead more than 100 laps and finish well.

For place differential drivers, we need to focus on top 10 potential. Each of the last eight perfect lineups have had at least four top 10 finishers and one lineup even had all six drivers finish in the top 10. Cars starting in the rear will be lapped pretty quickly here but passing up front will not be easy. We will have to front load our lineups more than usual, picking drivers in the 15-25 range that we think can finish in the top 10.

Punts are firmly in play on Sunday. Each of the last eight perfect lineups had exactly one driver priced under $6,000. We will want punts that can pick up at least 10 spots and finish in the top 30 or pick up a couple of spots and finish in the top 20. Either way, we want to focus on bargain drivers with upside.

Stage 1: 125 laps, Stage 2: 125 laps, Stage 3: 250 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Brad Keselowski ($9,100 DK, $12,300 FD)

Keselowski does not have a sparkling history by any means, but he is starting on the pole and has shown the ability to lead laps at Bristol, with 67,40 and 91 laps led in three of the last four races here. He will have to hold off Logano and Blaney, who both have dominator potential themselves. But for the price, I think Keselowski is the best option, especially in cash.

Austin Dillon ($6,300 DK, $7,000 FD)

Bristol is one Dillon's best tracks. He turned in a top 15 finish in five of the last seven races here, including a 4th place finish in 2016. Dillon is off to a hot (re)start to the season with four-straight top 20 finishes with an 8th place finish Wednesday night. He starts 20th on Sunday, so we will need him to pick up about 7 spots to have a shot at the perfect lineups. But I think he is one of the best values on the board.

Tournament Targets

Ryan Blaney ($8,600 DK, $10,300 FD)

Blaney is probably my favorite tournament dominator. He has led more than 100 laps in three of the last four races at Bristol and has shown that he doesn't need to start in the front row to lead laps. He is coming off of three straight top 10 finishes at Bristol, with positive place differential in two of those three races. Logano/Kes/Blaney are going to be battling for the early lead and I love Blaney's upside considering his price.

Matt Kenseth ($8,100 DK, $8,000 FD)

Kenseth hasn't been able to get out of his own way in the last three races but I am looking to turn it around on Sunday. His history here is great overall, with some bumps in the road and he has race winning potential. He is driving Kyle Larson's 42 car, which has had success here in the past, so I expect Kenseth to put his top of the line equipment to good use and turn his comeback around during this race.

Kyle Busch ($12,500 DK, $14,000 FD)

I am no stranger to writing up Kyle Busch, but not usually in my risky driver of the week slot. Busch continues to underperform but is still the highest priced driver on the slate, which confuses me until you see that he has won three of the last five races in Bristol and has led a total of 374 laps in that time. He has no shot at being in the perfect lineup if he doesn't lead 100 laps, so we are taking a big risk considering his 7th place starting position. But I don't want to miss the boat on him, especially with possible low ownership.

Bargain Bin

Chris Buescher ($5,800 DK, $6,800 FD)

Buescher is mispriced by at least $700, so we might as well take advantage of it. He has an average finish of 19th in his last three races here and turned in a positive place differential in each of those races. He is more risky than most drivers in his price range due to his 19th place starting position, but anything more than a top 15 finish should be able to land him in the perfect lineup.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at the Bristol that have a chance to make some noise, in no particular order:

Ryan Newman ($6,800 DK, $7,700 FD)

Ty Dillon ($6,100 DK, $5,500 FD)

Ryan Preece ($6,000 DK, $5,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Martin Truex Jr. ($9,400 DK, $12,500 FD)

Every time I go to the dentist I close my eyes, clench my fist and count the seconds until the entire process is over....I think that is how Truex feels about Bristol. He has an average finish of 22.2 in his last five races here and one top 10 finish in this last 15. I like his price but that is just about it.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Supermarket Heroes 500 Cheatsheet and find me on Twitter. Good Luck!

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