Written by @joejets19

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Alsco Uniforms 500 🏁

Sunday's race was a long but entertaining event and NASCAR caps off race week with a much shorter follow up at Charlotte Motor Speedway in Concord, NC for the Alsco Uniforms 500. Charlotte is a 1.5 mile, banked quad oval with traditionally low tire-ware. The field is already set so I am hoping there are fewer last-second adjustments needed on Wednesday night, but weather will continue to be a factor and a late start is going to be a possibility.

On to Charlotte!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 228 laps will be run and 57 points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.5 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 190 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 95 possible points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

We made a plan going in to qualifying on Sunday but had to adjust it on the fly. For this race, the starting lineup was released before DraftKings and FanDuel made their pricing but only DK scrambled salaries. I think we are going to have to adjust our dominator pool to just 1-2 drivers for this race and focus more on place differential. This is a much shorter race than Sunday's and there are less dominator points available. Each of the last seven races here had at least one driver lead more than 100 laps and seven of those eight drivers made the perfect lineup. Oddly enough, of those races that didn't have a second driver lead more than 100 laps, the driver with the second most laps led still made the perfect lineup. Finding drivers to lead laps will be important for GPPs on Wednesday but we will want to take fewer chances and instead try to solidify our floor.

During Sunday's race I was trying to figure out how many people were going to roster Bowyer and Hamlin, making it essentially a 4 diver race. To their credit, DK made them the second and third most expensive drivers (behind Jimmie Johnson, who was DQ'd and will start last) but they also lowered the top tiered drivers' prices. The combination of the top 20 inverting and the lower prices for Studs, there are solid place differential plays starting in the high teens that have dominator potential. I think we are going to see 3-4 drivers starting 15th or worse in the perfect lineup for this race, but they will need to be able to pick up at least 10 spots or finish in the top 10.

The Bargain Basement is again open on Wednesday. We will most likely need 1-2 drivers who cost less than $6000 and have top 20 potential.

Stage 1: 60 laps, Stage 2: 65 laps, Stage 3: 103 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Alex Bowman ($8,700 DK, $12,200 FD)

I made a big deal about aiming for fewer dominators this time around, but I think we need to exploit Bowman's price, especially since he starts on the front row. He looked like he showed up to Charlotte with a rocket ship on Sunday night and he picked up 164 laps led and 52 fastest laps. The most impressive thing about his performance is that he came through the field a few times to get up front, so his car did not rely entirely on clean air to perform. I am a firm believer in feeding the hot hand and right now, there is no one hotter.

Martin Truex Jr. ($9,400 DK, $14,000 FD)

While this will be entirely a night race, I still love Truex at Charlotte. He lead 87 laps and added 56 fastest laps but only finished 7th on Sunday. He is starting further back but I think he can make up some of the lost dominator points with some place differential points and he is $1,200 cheaper this race. Truex is less expensive than Kyle Busch, Keselowski and Elliott, and I think he has a higher chance to dominate and win the race.

Tournament Targets

Jimmie Johnson ($12,300 DK, $11,200 FD)

Johnson finished second on Sunday night but was disqualified after failing post race tech, so he will be starting 40th. I like how aggressive DK is with their pricing but $12,300 is a tough pill to swallow. He has almost zero laps led potential to he will have to rely on place differential and fastest laps to pay off his salary. He has an average finish of 5.5 in his last four races here and posted the 5th best green flag average speed on Sunday. He is an absolute cash game lock and I think he has tournament upside because people will be scared of his price.

Ryan Newman ($7,500 DK, $7,000 FD)

Newman let us down on Sunday but I will be going back to the well. We have a ton of talented drivers to choose from but the mid range is hurting and I think Newman stands above the rest. He is in a bit of a rut here but a top 15 would go a long way to landing him in the perfect lineup, and I think he still has top 10 potential.

Ty Dillon ($6,300 DK, $5,000 FD)

Dillon provides some upside for a cheap price, which we need desperately this week. His average finish of 22.75 in the last four here makes me think he will pick up a few spots, then add in that he is objectively faster than at least 5 cars starting ahead of him. I think a top 20 is reasonable for him this week, with top 15 upside.

Bargain Bin

Joey Gase ($5,200 DK, $3,000 FD)

DraftKings did us no favors this week with their pricing and this price range is anxiety inducing. Gase is more of a hold your nose type of pick this weekend but if he can muster a top 30, he will easily outscore the other drivers in this range.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at the Charlotte that have a chance to make some noise, in no particular order:

Ricky Stenhouse Jr ($7,300 DK, $6,300 FD)

Denny Hamlin ($11,200 DK, $12,000 FD)

Matt Kenseth ($8,100 DK, $7,600 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Clint Bowyer ($11,800 DK, $9,000 FD)

This is a bit nuanced of a pick but I don't like Bowyer at this price even though he is starting 39th. There is almost no chance that Bowyer and Johnson are both in the perfect lineup and I think Johnson has the higher floor and ceiling. Bowyer has been snake bitten recently and I worry about his propensity to have bad things happen to him. And even when he runs clean at Charlotte, he struggles to crack the top 15. I will have some shares of Bowyer but I will be way below the field.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Alsco Uniforms 500 cheatsheet and find me on Twitter. Good Luck!

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