Written by @joejets19

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NASCAR Coca-Cola 600 🏁

NASCAR did a fantastic job with their first week back in action and they continue to roll with a Sunday-Wednesday trip to Charlotte Motor Speedway in Concord, NC for the Coca-Cola 600. Charlotte is a 1.5 mile, banked quad oval with traditionally low tire-ware. We will hear all race how this is the longest race on the circuit and it will test the endurance and durability of every driver and car in the field. Naturally, there is rain in the forecast again for Sunday, so we will have to hold our breath to see how many laps will actually be run. Another wrinkle of chaos was also added for this race....qualifying will take place at 2:05 pm est Sunday afternoon, so the starting order will not be set until about three hours before lineup lock. I will be in chat and Twitter all day to provide updates and ongoing analysis.

On to Charlotte!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points = 0.25 points per lap led. This week, 400 laps will be run and 100 points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.5 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 340 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 170 possible points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

We are going to be doing things a little different this week because there will be a short turn around time between qualifying and lock. We can still study trends to see what types of drivers we should target, which will streamline our lineup building process. We will definitely want one, but a max of two dominators for Sunday's race. Each of the last six races here had at least one driver lead more than 100 laps and six of those seven drivers made the perfect lineup. Oddly enough, of those races that didn't have a second driver lead more than 100 laps, the driver with the second most laps led still made the perfect lineup. This makes me think we will go for a more stars and scrubs approach with two to three drivers we think can lead laps and then lower priced drivers that can pick up spots. Where will we find our lap leaders? Starting on the front row will not guarantee 100 laps led but each of the last 6 races had a driver starting in the top 11 lead at least 79 laps. The second driver can start anywhere in the top 20; fast drivers can get up front in Charlotte.

If we pick two to three drivers priced $9,000+, we are going to need to find some cheap drivers to balance out our lineup. The bargain basement is open again this week, with five of the last six perfect lineups featuring at least one driver priced $6,000 or less and two of those lineups featuring two drivers in that range. We can't just choose any drivers however, they need to be able to finish in the top 30 at least.

That leaves us with one to two drivers who are also value picks, that need to finish in the top 15. Pricing is brutal again this week, so we are going to have to make some tough decisions, hopefully qualifying helps us out a bit.

Stage 1: 100 laps, Stage 2: 100 laps, Stage 3: 100 laps, Stage 4: 100 Laps

Dominators Targets

Martin Truex Jr. ($10,600 DK, $13,700 FD)

Truex Jr. is going to be super chalky this week, especially if he qualifies well, but I love his chances to dominate. Truex has an average finish of 1.75, an average positive place differential of 11.75 and cumulative 440 laps led in the last four races here. He also has been in five of the last six perfect lineups. Truex is a master of the day to night race, which he even displayed last Wednesday night. He has led a significant amount of laps when starting as far back as 17th, so the best case scenario is a poor qualifying performance to scare off the public.

Kevin Harvick ($11,200 DK, $12,500 FD)

I am seeing a ton of talk about Kyle Busch for this race, but I think the play is actually Harvick. Harvick's track history has been rough recently, with trouble in two of the last five races here. Besides that, he is almost a lock for a top 10 finish and he's usually able to pick up at least a few laps led even if he isn't a dominator. Recent history is what tips the scales in Harvick's favor in my opinion. Busch has not led a lap since Daytona and has been generally unhappy with his equipment this season. I will definitely have decent exposure to both drivers but I think Harvick is the play.

Mid-Range Targets

Ryan Newman ($6,500 DK, $7,000 FD)

Newman provides much needed dependability to a stars and scrubs lineup. He is relatively inexpensive and has nine top 15 finishes in the last twelve races here. Newman may go overlooked a bit due to his lackluster performance at Darlington but any starting position 20th or worse will make him virtually a lock.

Bubba Wallace ($5,900 DK, $5,000 FD)

I always think of Wallace as a poor man's Rickie Stenhouse Jr., but he is actually having himself a solid season so far, with five top 21 finishes in the first six races, including a 6th place finish at the only other 1.5 mile oval this season (Las Vegas). He has an average finish of 20.5 in his two races here, with an average positive place differential of 4. He is one of the few cheap drivers with legitimate top 15 potential.

Jimmie Johnson ($9,200 DK, $10,700 FD)

Johnson is a risky pick this week because he is priced higher than an ideal place differential candidate so he will need to lead laps or finish in the top 5 to pay off. He has an average finish of 9.25 in the last four races here, with an average positive place differential of 10. He was in good form at Darlington and has been able to show some speed this year.

Bargain Bin

Michael McDowell ($5,600 DK, $4,000 FD)

This is going to be a very important range this week and I think McDowell has some of the highest upside. He has an average finish here of 23.5 in the last four but has two top 20 finishes in those races. McDowell only has one finish worse than 23rd this season and four races with positive place differential. As long as he's starting 25+ he is one of our top bargain options

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at the Charlotte that have a chance to make some noise, in no particular order:

Chris Buescher ($6,700 DK, $6,400 FD)

Chase Elliott ($9,700 DK, $11,500 FD)

Matt Kenseth ($7,700 DK, $8,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Joey Logano ($10,000 DK, $11,300 FD)

Logano finished second here in the last race but that was his only top 20 in his last five races here. He has two wins already this season, so he may carry some ownership. But without any clear indication that he will lead laps, he is priced too high to just be a place differential driver.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Coca-Cola 600 cheatsheet and find me on Twitter. Good Luck!

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