Written by @joejets19

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We got a real treat Sunday with a fantastic race at Darlington and we get to run it back Wednesday. It is an incredibly short turnaround but we are here for you as always. If you watched the race, you will have heard a million times that Darlington is a 1 and three eights mile egg shaped oval, I feel like they said it after every commercial break. This will be a shorter race than Sunday (500 kilometers not 400 miles) and weather is already causing problems, moving lock time to 6 pm as of now. Keep an eye out during the day because the start time of this race may be a fluid situation, just like everything else these days.

On to Darlington!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points = 0.25 points per lap led. This week, 228 laps will be run and 57 points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.5 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 193 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 96.5 possible points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

Before we begin, a public service announcement.... I added new tabs to my cheatsheet this week to help with custom DK/FD projections. I made it easier for anyone who wants to calculate how many points a driver would score if they start 10th, finish 1st, lead 50 laps and have 5 fastest laps. The tab will be preloaded with my personal projections (not LineStar's) and can be customized for your own personal use. I am currently having trouble with it functioning properly on Apple's Numbers application, but it should be fully functioning on Sheets and Excel as long as you download the cheatsheet off of Dropbox. Feel free to reach out with any issues/questions.

As always, we want to build our lineups around dominators but I think Wednesday they will be slightly less important. Due to the inverted top 20, we have a bunch of fast cars starting 15th or worse and some cars that had nice races but may not have dominator potential starting up front. The shortened race doesn't help our case for dominators and neither does the potential for rain. At Darlington, we usually focus on the front row for at least one of our dominators but that will not be the case. I can see a scenario where the lead is passed around for a bit until some of our place differential drivers make it up front. For this race I think we should play only 1, maybe two drivers starting in the top 10 and balance the rest of our lineup out with drivers that can finish well.

DraftKings' pricing is brutal this week, they were able to price the field according to their starting position instead of posting the prices before the cars even get to the track. We are going to have to make some hard decisions about lineup construction but I still think the optimal lineup will have 3-4 drivers that can pick up at least 5 spots and I think we are going to need to focus on drivers that can finish in the top 10.

Finally, bargain basement drivers will be in play again for this race, but pricing has made it very tough to find multiple options under $6,000 that can finish in the top 25. This race looks like it is shaping up to be a one basement driver race.

Stage 1: 60 laps, Stage 2: 65 laps, Stage 3: 103 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Darlington Picks: 

Jimmie Johnson ($9,100 DK, $10,000 FD)

Johnson will be popular Wednesday due to his 37th place starting position. He has an absolutely brutal recent history here but he actually was running really well on Sunday before he ran into trouble. He posted the 8th fastest lap and had the 19th best green flag average, which included his damage. Johnson also has an average running position of 19.5 in the last four races here despite his average finish of 26.5, so I think if he just stays out of his own way he will have a solid chance of being in the perfect lineup.

Kurt Busch ($8,700 DK, $9,400 FD)

Kurt Busch was the chalk of Sunday and paid off, and I am willing to go back to the well. He starts 18th, which is four spots ahead of last race, and his price rose $200 but he offers a drastic price discount from the drivers starting around him. I don't need Busch to dominate at his salary but we will need a top 8 finish for him to have a chance at the perfect lineup. He had a good car on Sunday. Let's see if he can make it two in a row.

Tournament Targets

Darlington Picks:

Martin Truex Jr. ($11,100 DK, $11,500 FD)

Truex is not known for his dominance at Darlington but I like the way his car came around to him as the race progressed on Sunday. He is one of the best drivers in the series in races that start in the daytime and finish at night time, which will be a big factor for Wednesday and Sundays races and depending on when NASCAR can fit this one in, that might play right into his wheelhouse. Truex very quietly ran the 4th fastest lap of the race on Sunday and had 14 total fastest laps.

Clint Bowyer ($7,300 DK, $8,400 FD)

Call me crazy, but I think Bowyer has the best chance out of any car in the top 5 to be an early dominator. He is easily the fastest car in the top 7 and will have a hard time fighting off Logano for the early lead, but I secretly hope he will get some set-up tips from his teammate Kevin Harvick that will really give him the edge for the early part of the race.

Tyler Reddick. ($7,700 DK, $6,700 FD)

By every measurable statistic, Reddick ran a phenomenal race on Sunday. He had the 8th best green lap average, led the field in green flag passes and was second in quality passes. He is starting 14th, so if anything goes wrong it will kill a lineup. But I think this rookie has what it takes to pull off another top 10, and a top 5 finish will all but guarantee a perfect lineup appearance.

Bargain Bin

Darlington Pick

Corey Lajoie ($5,500 DK, $4,000 FD)

This range is absolutely excruciating this slate and I think Lajoie is the only driver with top 25 potential. He showed some (relative) speed in the car and is starting far enough back that he has some place differential potential, but overall he's more of a least bad option than anything.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at the Darlington that have a chance to make some noise, in no particular order:

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($7,900 DK, $6,400 FD)

William Byron ($8,900 DK, $9,000 FD)

Alex Bowman ($10,000 DK, $10,600 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Darlington Pick

Ty Dillon ($5,900 DK, $5,000 FD)

Ty was one of my favorites on Sunday but there is no chance I will have any shares of him on Wednesday. The inverted top 20 is fun and all for real life racing, but for DFS purposes it put a lot of drivers in places they shouldn't be.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat! 

Be sure to download the 865 and find me on Twitter. Good Luck!

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