Written by @joejets19

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NASCAR FanShield 500 🏁

This week, NASCAR heads to their new championship track for an early season preview at Phoenix Raceway in Avondale, AZ for the FanShield 500. The track is a 1-mile, flat tri-oval and will be the first to feature the tweaked aero package for the season. This race usually features a fast pace and some good action and NASCAR is hoping for an exciting result with this lower downforce package. Drivers have reported that the car feels similar to the 2018 package so we may want to pay extra attention to that year's races at Phoenix.

Last race’s winning lineups:

Perfect Lineup: Hamlin, Reddick, Jones, Chastain, Treux Jr, Bowman 358.75 DK pts.

$400K Piston: Hamlin, Reddick, Jones, Chastain, Treux Jr, Bowman 358.75 DK pts. Min cash:282.00 DK Pts

$150K Chrome Horn:  Hamlin, Reddick, Jones, Chastain, Treux Jr, Bowman 358.75 DK pts. Min cash: 277.00 DK Pts

On to Phoenix!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points = 0.25 points per lap led. This week, 312 laps will be run and 78 points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.5 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 267 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 133.5 possible points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗️

Before we begin, a public service announcement.... I added new tabs to my cheatsheet this week to help with custom DK/FD projections. I made it easier for anyone who wants to calculate how many points a driver would score if they start 10th, finish 1st, lead 50 laps and have 5 fastest laps. The tab will be preloaded with my personal projections (not LineStar's) and can be customized for your own personal use. I am currently having trouble with it functioning properly on Apple's Numbers application, but it should be fully functioning on Sheets and Excel as long as you download the cheatsheet off of Dropbox. Feel free to reach out with any issues/questions.

Phoenix marches to the beat of its own drum for a couple of reasons: 1) Who advertises their races in kilometers?!?!?! 2) This is the only race that I can think of that has three different stage lengths 3) Drivers can literally cut a corner off of this track if they choose to. There are a ton of dominator points up for grab on Sunday and there is a good chance that there will be two drivers that lead more than 90 laps. The front row is not guaranteed to be one of the two lap leaders, but the top 10 is where most of the previous dominators have come from. This is one of the few tracks where there can be several drivers that lead a chunk of laps and there have been races where a driver starting as far back as 18th has been the major dominator so we can get a little creative with our player pool.

Once we find our dominators (1 or 2), we are then going to want to find 4-5 drivers that can finish in the top 10. These drivers do not have to pick up a ton of spots (there have been some drivers that made it in the perfect lineup by fastest laps alone) but they do have to finish well. Finally, we can round out our lap with one bargain basement driver at best. We have to watch out when picking cheap drivers, these guys have to pick up at least 10 spots to have a chance to make the perfect lineup.

Stage 1: 75 laps, Stage 2: 115 laps, Stage 3: 122 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Auto Club Review:

• Martin Truex Jr (57.25 DK pts)

• Ryan Blaney (54.50 DK pts)

Phoenix Picks:

Kevin Harvick ($11,300 DK, $12,500 FD)

Going into this weekend, I was actually kind of down on Harvick. It is the conventional wisdom that he is the master of Phoenix but over the last seven races here he was outdone by Kyle Busch. Harvick did everything he could to change my mind, however, and I think he is in great position to dominate on Sunday. Harvick's single lap practice times were not the best but he showed great speed over the long run in second practice, posting the best 10 lap and second best 15, 20 and 25 lap averages. We don't know how big of an impact clean air will have on these cars yet but if he can get past Elliott early, he will be very hard to catch up to.

Tyler Reddick ($6,900 DK, $6,700 FD)

It kills me to go against the recommendations from the lineup construction section with my second pick but its very hard to pass up the safety of Reddick. Starting 29th, he has a very nice floor and showed great single lap speeds as well as a solid 10, 15 and 20 lap average in second practice. He is not cheap enough to qualify as a bargain basement pick so we will need him to sneak into the top 15 at least, but he definitely has a better car than six or seven drivers starting ahead of him.

Tournament Targets

Auto Club Review:

• Alex Bowman (108.50 DK pts)

• Ross Chastain (37.00 DK pts)

• Joey Logano (27.50 DK pts)

Phoenix Picks:

Kyle Busch ($12,000 DK , $14,000 FD)

Ok, I really try to avoid doing this but I would be doing a disservice by not talking about Kyle Busch this weekend. His cars have not been where he wanted them to be so far this season but he always seems to turn in a solid performance. This weekend, Busch has some speed in the car in the short runs but ran a lackluster 10 lap average and didn't run anything longer than that. He has been phenomenal at Phoenix in recent years with more than 100 laps led in four of the last six races here including two wins and four top 3 finishes.

William Byron ($8,300 DK , $9,500 FD)

I was debating between Byron and Bowyer in this spot and was actually leaning Bowyer for a minute due to his slightly better history but I think Byron has the much better car and may be lower owned considering his higher price and 17th starting position. Byron has an average finish of 15.5 here including two top 12 finishes in four tries.

Brad Keselowski ($10,400 DK , $11,500 FD)

Keselowski is a high priced pivot off of either Harvick or Kyle Busch. He is starting 14th so he has much more place differential potential than either of the previously mentioned drivers, but I do think he is also the least likely to dominate of the three. There are a bunch of drivers that qualified right where they practiced or historically finish, so this will be a tricky slate to decipher. Kes produced top 10 single lap times in both practices and was the only car better than Harvick's over the long run. His history is poor and he hasn't led a ton of laps here in the past. But I built these models for a reason and he has the second best average projected finish in the field, so I am going to put some trust in that.

Bargain Bin

Auto Club Review

• Quin Houff (9.00 DK pts)

Phoenix Pick

Timmy Hill ($5,200 DK,$2,000 FD)

Hey, we finally get a week where Hill doesn't have the slowest car! Pair that with a lower price and he might actually be playable. He is starting 38th and pretty much just has to finish the race to pick up about 5 spots. We are looking for a driver that can pick up 10 spots for a gpp but in cash, there aren't too many better punt options.

Other Drivers To Consider

Auto Club Review

• Tyler Reddick (41.00 DK pts)

• William Byron (36.25 DK)

• Austin Dillon (21.50 DK pts)

Here are 3 more drivers I like at the Phoenix that have a chance to make some noise, in no particular order:

Austin Dillon ($7,500 DK, $7,600 FD)

Erik Jones ($8,500 DK, $9,200 FD)

Bubba Wallace ($6,000 DK, $5,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Auto Club Review

• Clint Bowyer (2.00 DK pts)

Phoenix Pick

Chase Elliott ($9,6000 DK, $11,000 FD)

The obvious choice is Martin Truex Jr., but I am going to make my riskiest call of the season and fade Elliott. He has a rocket ship over the short run but he tends to fall off after about 5 laps. He is no stranger starting on the front row, after starting 2nd in two of the last three races but he hasn't finished better than 14th since March of 2018. He does have a path to domination, so I wouldn't X him out entirely, but I'm keeping my ownership to about 5-7% in hopes of being very underweight.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the FanShield 500 Cheatsheet and find me on Twitter. Good Luck!

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