Written by @joejets19

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NASCAR Auto Club 400 🏁

I will be the first to admit that Las Vegas produced a much better race than I was expecting and lets see if we can make it 3/3 as NASCAR moves on to Auto Club Speedway in Fontana, CA for the Auto Club 400. The track is a 2 mile, not too steeply banked D-shaped oval that should produce high tire ware but ,oddly enough, few cautions. It will be a very interesting week for GPPs due to qualifying, so lets jump right in.

Last race’s winning lineups:

Perfect Lineup: Ty Dillon, Wallace, DiBenedetto, Harvick, Wallace, Stenhouse Jr 377.00 DK pts.

$450K Piston: Ty Dillon, Wallace, DiBenedetto, Harvick, Wallace, Stenhouse Jr 377.00 DK pts Min cash:248.25 DK Pts

$150K Chrome Horn: Ty Dillon, Wallace, DiBenedetto, Harvick, Wallace, Stenhouse Jr 377.00 DK pts. Min cash: 253.75 DK Pts

On to Auto Club!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points = 0.25 points per lap led. This week, 200 laps will be run and 50 points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.5 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 175 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 87.5 possible points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗️

Before we begin, a public service announcement.... I added new tabs to my cheatsheet this week to help with custom DK/FD projections. I made it easier for anyone who wants to calculate how many points a driver would score if they start 10th, finish 1st, lead 50 laps and have 5 fastest laps. The tab will be preloaded with my personal projections (not LineStar's) and can be customized for your own personal use. I am currently having trouble with it functioning properly on Apple's Numbers application, but it should be fully functioning on Sheets and Excel as long as you download the cheatsheet off of Dropbox. Feel free to reach out with any issues/questions.

Now that we got that out of the way, Auto Club is a track where we normally see at least 1 driver lead 100 laps with a small chance of a second dominator leading 60-80 laps. Each of the last six drivers that led more than 60 laps have all come from inside the top 4, so our dominator pool is fairly limited this week. Qualifying gives us an interesting top 4 so I think we will need to expand that range a bit, but it is important to note that we haven't had a driver lead more than 60 laps that started worse than 4th since 2011.

Considering most races only produce one, maybe two drivers that lead a significant amount of laps, place differential and finishing position are key to constructing a winning lineup. Passing is not the easiest at Auto Club so proper lineup construction has been heavily dependent on qualifying. There have been some races where all of the fast cars qualified up front so it only took a few positive place differential points to land a driver in the perfect lineups, and other races where the fast cars started further in the rear and were able to pick up a bunch of spots. This year, I think we will be aiming for the latter, picking drivers that we think can make big moves (10+ spots) and trying to avoid low priced drivers that don't have much of a ceiling (example lineups would be the perfect lineups from 2018 and 2018).

Stage 1: 60 laps, Stage 2: 60 laps, Stage 3: 80 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Las Vegas Review:

• Kevin Harvick (69.50 DK pts)

• Chris Buescher (40.00 DK pts)

Auto Club Picks:

Martin Truex Jr. ($10,400 DK, $12,500 FD)

I have mentioned before that I envision the Foundation Targets as cash game picks, and this week there is no reason to overthink Truex Jr. He has almost 0 chance to lead laps on Sunday but we don't need him to at this track. He is starting 38th (and will be scored from 38th) and had the third best 10 and 15 lap averages in second practice, so he has more than enough speed to get into the top 10. Last year Truex started 27th and finished 8th here, so he has done it in the past. NASCAR is the one sport that chalk hits way more often than it fails, and since Auto Club sees fairly few incidents, I would not be afraid of having a ton of ownership on Truex.

Ryan Blaney ($9,400 DK, $10,500 FD)

Blaney has been on fire to start the season and I expect that to continue on Sunday. He is starting 16th but turned in the 9th and 2nd best single lap times in first and second practice respectively. Blaney was also good over the long run in second practice, posting the 4th best 10 lap, 2nd best 15 laps and the best 20 lap averages. His recent history here is also nothing to be ashamed of with three straight top 10 finishes.

Tournament Targets

Las Vegas Review:

• Aric Almirola (17.5 DK pts)

• Austin Dillon (57.75 DK pts)

• Kyle Larson (34.50 DK pts)

Auto Club Picks:

Alex Bowman ($8,800 DK , $10,000 FD)

Traditionally, the magic range for this track is the top 4 when looking for dominators and Bowman has the best car in the field over the short and long run according to practice. He posted the best single lap speeds in both practices and the best 5 and 10 lap averages in second practice. His history at this track worries me slightly, and he will have to chase down a car with clean air if he doesn't get to the front at the start of the race. So he is by no means a slam dunk, but I believe he is the driver most likely to lead laps that is starting up front.

Ross Chastain ($6,500 DK , $6,500 FD)

Chastain is driving Newman's #6 for the second race in a row and I think this is the perfect line to buy into the hype he had last week. He burned a decent amount of the field at Vegas, so I am hoping to catch him at lower than warranted ownership considering his 27th place starting position. He had top 15 single lap times in both practices but needed some work on the long runs. He has a better car than some of the drivers starting in front of him and I think a top 20 is well within his range of outcomes.

Joey Logano ($10,900 DK , $13,000 FD)

Logano is starting in no man's land, which makes him very risky this week. I think he has the second best car in the top 10 despite his poor single lap speeds but he absolutely needs to lead laps to pay off his salary. Considering the high priced drivers with much more place differential potential (Kyle Busch, Hamlin, Treux Jr. ) playing Logano will not be for the feint of heart, but he has the potential to be the major dominator at lower ownership than the others.

Bargain Bin

Las Vegas Review

• John Hunter Nemechek (26.00 DK pts)

Auto Club Pick

Quin Houff ($4,700 DK,$2,000 FD)

By no means is this a ringing endorsement, but there is a scenario where you need to jam in a bunch of high priced drivers and then punt one spot. Houff is cheap, starting 35th and can't get negative points....sometimes that's all it takes.

Other Drivers To Consider

Las Vegas Review

• Jimmie Johnson (57.50 DK pts)

• Ty Dillon (48.50 DK)

• Clint Bowyer (29.00 DK pts)

Here are 3 more drivers I like at the Auto Club that have a chance to make some noise, in no particular order:

Tyler Reddick ($6,700 DK, $6,800 FD)

William Byron ($8,400 DK, $9,200 FD)

Austin Dillon ($7,400 DK, $7,500 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Las Vegas Review

• Kyle Busch (15.50 DK pts)

Auto Club Pick

Clint Bowyer ($7,9000 DK, $8,000 FD)

I went safe for the first two races. This race, I'm taking a slightly bigger risk. Bowyer starts on the pole so he gets the clean air advantage, which is huge for this aero package. His car, on the other hand, is not a top 3 car. He didn't show great single lap speed in either practice and he had a poor 5 lap average in second practice and didn't run anything longer. His recent form here is also not great, with an average finish of 17.5 in the last 4 races at Auto Club. I really liked his price going into Saturday, but on Sunday I will take a pass.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Auto Club 400 Cheatsheet and find me on Twitter. Good Luck!

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