Written by @joejets19

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NASCAR Pennzoil 400 🏁

It took two days and about 170 uneventful laps for the Daytona to get exciting but boy did it deliver. I have never actually been scared watching a race until Monday night when Newman wrecked and the fact that he is out of the hospital with limited injuries is nothing short of a miracle. I went over the entire range of emotions on my recap video the Raceday Review so I won't go over it again but I want to join the entire industry in wishing Newman a speedy recovery.

The grind of the NASCAR season can now officially begin, after the pomp and circumstances of an extended Daytona race week. NASCAR is making their first of two spots at Las Vegas Motor Speedway in Las Vegas, NV for the Pennzoil 400. The track is a 1.5 mile steeply banked D-shaped oval that produced two incident free races last year. The cars will be running the same aero package as last year so this may not be the most exciting race but there will be paths to profitability.

Last race’s winning lineups:

Perfect Lineup: Hamlin, Blaney, Bowyer, Gaughan, Lajoie, Ragan 426.5 DK pts.

$888K America's Race: Hamlin, Blaney, Bowyer, Gaughan, Lajoie, Ragan 426.5 DK pts. Min cash:272.75 DK Pts

$200K Slingshot: Hamlin, Blaney, Bowyer, Gaughan, Lajoie, Ragan 426.5 DK pts. Min cash: 255.50 DK Pts

On to Las Vegas!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points = 0.25 points per lap led. This week, 267 laps will be run and 66.75 points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.5 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 242 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 121 possible points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗️

Races at Las Vegas have been strange, especially in 2019. The driver that led the most laps as started in the front row in three of the last five races here and six of the last eight drivers that led 75 or more laps have started in the top 10. That is a long winded way of saying the main dominator is not guaranteed to come from the front row but will most likely come from the top 10, and there is a good chance that two drivers will lead a significant amount of laps. Pricing seems ridiculously tight but I will focus on trying to construct two dominator lineups.

Fast cars are able to pick up spots at Las Vegas and back markers tend to stay toward the back, so lineup construction will be entirely different than Daytona (as it should be). We will want to cherry pick 2-3 drivers starting in the 20s that have shown speed in practice and we think can pick up some spots. These drivers do not have to make huge moves, but they need to have top 20 potential without the help of a bunch of cautions.

Finally, we are going to try to find one driver that may have qualified very well that may not lead laps but will at least finish well and pick up a spot or two in the process.

Stage 1: 80 laps, Stage 2: 80 laps, Stage 3: 107 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Daytona Review:

• Brendan Gaughan (71.00 DK pts)

• Ty Dillon (12.50 DK pts)

Las Vegas Picks:

Kevin Harvick ($12,000 DK, $13,500 FD)

Qualifying was rained out so the field was set by last season's owner's points, but an inspection mishap is forcing Kyle Busch to the rear, putting Harvick on the pole. DK will be scoring Busch, Hamlin and Bell 1st, 4th and 22nd respectively but they will all be starting in the rear. Harvick will look to turn his good fortune into domination and it looks like he has the car to do it. He ran the third best single lap time and best 10 lap average in second practice and has shown in the past he knows how to lead laps at Vegas. His average finish here is tainted with two accidents in the last four races here, so he may not pop in most models but I think he should beat Truex Jr. off the block and lead a decent chunk of laps with the clean air advantage.

Chris Buescher ($6,700 DK, $7,200 FD)

We are going to need to save some salary on Sunday and Buescher is the first place I am looking. Starting 23rd, he has an average finish of 17.8 in the last 5 races here with an impressive +9.8 place differential average. He had the 15th best single lap time in second practice and has legitimate top 15 potential at a solid price.

Tournament Targets

Daytona Review:

• Michael McDowell(47.75 DK pts)

• Corey Lajoie (64.75 DK pts)

• Ryan Blaney (69.50 DK pts)

Las Vegas Picks:

Aric Almirola ($7,800 DK , $8,300 FD)

Almirola looks like he is driving a rocket ship, posting the 1st and 3rd best single lap times in the first and second practices respectively. He has shown speed over the long runs also, posting the 10th best 10 lap average and 6th best 15 laps average in second practice. Almirola is no stranger to success at Las Vegas either, posting three top 10 finishes in the last four races here. I wish he started further back than 14th but he has legitimate top 5 potential.

Austin Dillon ($6,900 DK , $7,600 FD)

This is going to be an interesting race due to the way the field was set. Most of the high priced, big name drivers are starting in the top 10 and need to dominate to pay of their salaries, which leads us to looking further back in the field for value and upside. Dillon's car makes me nervous but he does have a nice track history, with finishes of 12th, 20th, 11th and 13th in the last 4. He also posted an average finish of 17.1 at similar tracks last year, so he has a fair amount of upside coming from his starting position of 21st.

Kyle Larson ($9,800 DK , $10,000 FD)

Larson is starting 6th and a sneaky dominator candidate by my estimation. He offers a slight price savings from the top tier drivers but has more of a chance to dominate than Kyle Busch, Hamlin and Keselowski. He has an average finish of 5.8 in the last 5 races here and an average finish of 10.8 at similar tracks despite his miscues. He showed some single lap speed in his car in practice but really set himself apart over the long run, posting the third best 15 and 20 lap averages in second practice. He will need a top 3 and laps led to pay off his salary, but I believe he has the potential to do just that.

Bargain Bin

Daytona Review

• Denny Hamlin (89.75 DK pts)

Las Vegas Pick

John Hunter Nemechek ($5,400 DK,$5,500 FD)

I am legitimately curious to see how Nemechek races on Sunday. He is starting 29th but posted a top 10 single lap time and top 15 15 laps average in second practice. He has had some success in XFINITY, with two top 10 finishes here and could provide a ton of upside for a bargain basement price.

Other Drivers To Consider

Daytona Review

• Ryan Newman (40.25 DK pts)

• Chris Buescher (58.50 DK)

• Ryan Preece (19.00 DK pts)

Here are 3 more drivers I like at the Las Vegas that have a chance to make some noise, in no particular order:

Jimmie Johnson ($8,400 DK, $8,400 FD)

Ty Dillon ($5,700 DK, $4,000 FD)

Clint Bowyer ($8,000 DK, $8,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Daytona Review

• Ricky Stenhouse Jr (11.50 DK pts)

Homestead Pick

Kyle Busch ($12,400 DK, $14,000 FD)

Part of me thinks this pick is a cop-out, another part of me wants to take a few stabs at a low owned Kyle Busch. He is the most expensive driver on the slate and will be starting in the rear but scored from first....so he has a massive hole to dig himself out of. If he can make it to the front by the third stage, he has a path to the perfect lineup. But he hates his car and doesn't have a stellar history here, so I am going to hold my nose and accept the risk.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Pennzoil 400 Cheatsheet and find me on Twitter. Good Luck!

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