Written by @joejets19

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NASCAR Daytona 500 🏁

NASCAR kicks off their 2020 season this Sunday at Daytona International Speedway in Daytona Beach, FL for the Daytona 500. Do you think I typed the word Daytona enough yet? The track is a 2.5 mile tri-oval and is one of the two super speedways on the NASCAR circuit. Scattered showers are in the forecast for the entire day which may literally rain on our parade and could possibly add an extra layer of uncertainty to a typically chaotic race.

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points = 0.25 points per lap led. This week, 200 laps will be run and 50 points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.5 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 163 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 81.5 possible points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗️

Every year it makes me laugh that NASCAR's most well known and celebrated race is the first one of the season. It also drives me nuts that the most influential race of the season throws all of the conventional rules out the window. For the new people to the sport, Daytona (and Talladega) are unique tracks on the NASCAR circuit for several reasons: 1) a "big one" (crash that wipes out the majority of the field) is almost guaranteed, 2) we don't want to pick any dominators, instead we focus our attention to the rear of the field and 3) it is not unusual for the perfect lineup to leave $5,000 to $12,000 on the table.

This DFS slate has a little bit for everyone. For the cash game player, the strategy is fairly simple, roster 6 drivers starting worse than 30th. Any driver starting this far back in the field will pick up a ton of fantasy points simply by finishing a race and their downside is limited. Tournament players need a little more nuanced approach. I absolutely LOVE to MME superspeedway slates. There is still an edge to be had because some players treat Daytona as a typical NASCAR track and are overexposed to the front of the field. The magic starting position at this track is 24th. Each of the last 8 perfect lineups have featured at least three drivers starting 24th or worse and five of those lineups have had at least 5 drivers starting in that range. If I were making 150 lineups, I would make sure every single one of them had at least 3 drivers starting 24th or worse and I wouldn't be afraid to have a chunk of lineups have all six drivers back there. Now for those players looking to take down a tournament, you are going to want some exposure to drivers starting further forward in the field. 4/48 perfect lineup drivers started within the top 10, so some exposure is warranted but only 1-2% at max. Drivers starting from 11-23 make up about 15% of the last 8 perfect lineups, so anywhere from 10-20% ownership will be optimal.

Stage 1: 65 laps, Stage 2: 65 laps, Stage 3: 70 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Brendan Gaughan ($7,200 DK, $2,500 FD)

I have written up Brendan Gaughan for every superspeedway article since the Pitstop's inception and his results have ranged from eh to serviceable. Gaughan is a superspeedway specialist, only racing at Daytona and Talladega each year and a bit of a DFS tout darling. He has posted a positive place differential in four of his last five races here and, starting 39th, is guaranteed to post a positive fantasy score. At this track I don't put too much focus on individual practice times, because as long as he can finish the race he should have a decent showing.

Ty Dillon ($5,700 DK, $4,000 FD)

Dillon is starting on the magic number, 24th and this is legitimately one of his best tracks. He has posted three consecutive top 6 finishes here with a place differential of at least +13 in each of those races. He loved his car during his duel and turned in a top 5 single lap time in two practices. I wish he was starting a little further back to limit his risk, but in the end I will be rostering him for his top 10 potential.

Tournament Targets

Michael McDowell ($5,900 DK , $5,000 FD)

McDowell is another lesser known driver that has a stellar Daytona history. He has posted a top 15 finish in seven of his last eight races here with a positive place differential in each of those races. There are some big name drivers starting right behind him who will draw a decent amount of attention, which will hopefully allow us to get some leverage on the field.

Corey Lajoie ($5,400 DK , $5,000 FD)

It feels so weird writing up all of these lower priced drivers but Lajoie is another fantastic option for Sunday. Starting 36th, Lajoie has one of the best floors in the field with a top 20 upside. He has posted a positive place differential in four of the last fives races at Daytona and even posted a (somewhat flukey) 6th place finish here in July.

Ryan Blaney ($9,300 DK , $11,000 FD)

Another programming alert for the new readers, I try to recommend a somewhat risky driver with upside in this slot. What makes Blaney so risky this week? Since he had to go to his backup car, he will be starting in the rear of the field but will be scored from 27th. 200 laps will provide more than enough opportunity to make up those places, but his recent history is not the best. He has had an accident is four of the last fives races here but he is used to racing near the front of the pack here. Hopefully starting further back will give him a chance to avoid the big one and post the top 5 finish he is capable of.

Bargain Bin

Denny Hamlin ($10,400 DK,$13,000 FD)

Since the typical format gets turned on its head for superspeedways, I might as well recommend a high priced driver in this slot. The defending 500 champion is starting 21st and has been lightning fast in practice. He is another driver that is familiar with the front of the pack here but will be starting further back than he is used to and will hopefully parlay that into slightly better luck.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at the Daytona that have a chance to make some noise, in no particular order:

Ryan Newman ($7,600 DK, $7,000 FD)

Chris Buescher ($7,100 DK, $7,300 FD)

Ryan Preece ($5,300 DK, $5,500 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Ricky Stenhouse Jr ($8,800 DK, $8,200 FD)

I firmly believe that it is Ricky Stenhouse Jr's mission in life to create a big one at every track on the NASCAR circuit. He can find a way to wreck a car on even the most mundane tracks. So I'm just going to grab the popcorn and watch what he can do on the pole at Daytona.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Daytona 500 Cheatsheet and find me on Twitter. Good Luck!

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