Written by @joejets19

Join the LineStar NASCAR Chat for info from experts.

Download the Ford EcoBoost 400 Cheatsheet

NASCAR Ford EcoBoost 400 🏁

WE MADE IT!!! NASCAR will crown their champion for the final time at Homestead-Miami Speedway in Homestead, FL. Homestead is a 1.5 mile steeply banked oval and will feature the standard package (aeroducts and low HP) seen at all other intermediate tracks this season. Weather played a major role in the race-week schedule, ruining Friday's practices and forcing the field to be set by owner points. There are weather concerns for the race but due to an early sunset, the race should finish under the lights.

Before we dive deeper into the race, I want to take the time to thank everyone for making this season one of the most enjoyable of my career. We have carried the excitement of Daytona through 36 (sometimes grueling) weeks and I would like to thank everyone for participating in chat and reading along the entire season. Hope to see everyone back next year.

Last race’s winning lineups:

Perfect Lineup: Logano, Hamlin, Yeley, Kyle Busch, Ty Dillon, Hemric 367.25 DK pts.

$100K First Gear: Kyle Busch, Ty Dillon, Hamlin, Logano, Hemric, Nemechek 358.25 DK pts. Min cash:305.50 DK Pts

$40K Chrome Horn:  Logano, Hamlin, Yeley, Kyle Busch, Ty Dillon, Hemric 367.25 DK pts. Min cash: 298.25 DK Pts

On to Homestead!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points = 0.25 points per lap led. This week, 267 laps will be run and 66.75 points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.5 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 237 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 118.5 possible points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗️

Championship weekend is unlike any other. Everyone throws everything they have at this race, and everyone is usually focused on the Championship Four. Qualifying was canceled this weekend so the starting lineup was set by owners' points, therefore the four drivers fighting for the title are starting 1-4. Since this playoff format has started, it has taken a win at Homestead to take home the Championship, so this automatically narrows down our player pool a bit. Ironically, only two championship drivers in the last four races here have led more than 70 laps so we will want to pair a championship driver with a different driver that we think can lead laps. The top 10 is a great place to look for dominators but with the way qualifying occurred, it may be a very expensive approach.

This race looks like it will lend itself to a stars and scrubs type of build. The only practice showed that these cars are just about as fast as their starting position so it will be fairly difficult to pick up spots. We can take this two ways: 1) we can focus on finishing position by rostering drivers that we think can pick up a few spots and finish well or 2) we can try to roster as many drivers as we think will lead laps and then fill in the rest of the roster with drivers that will finish the race and avoid making mistakes.

I am opting for the stars and scrubs option, so I think we should try to roster 2-3 drivers in the top 10 with at least 1 championship driver and 1 non-championship driver. We should then look for low priced drivers that can pick up a handful of spots and finish in the top 30.

Stage 1: 80 laps, Stage 2: 80 laps, Stage 3: 107 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Phoenix Review:

• Kyle Busch (79.75 DK pts)

• Ryan Newman (31.50 DK pts)

Homestead Picks:

Daniel Hemric ($6,300 DK, $4,000 FD)

This isn't a restrictor plate race, so it is strange to seen a non-elite driver headlining the Pitstop. This is more of a tip of the cap to the stars of the show than anything but we will need to fit in our studs somehow, and I am choosing to build around Hemric. He has spent his entire year qualifying well and falling back, which is why I enjoy rostering him when he's starting 25th. Hemric posted the 16th best single lap time in practice as well as the 20th best 10 lap average. With an average finishing position of 22.9 and an average run position of 20.3 at similar tracks, Hemric is a safe piece to build around with top 15 potential.

Kyle Larson ($10,200 DK, $13,000 FD)

We are looking for non-championship drivers with dominating potential and that is the perfect description if Larson this weekend. Larson completely turned his season around and actually sports an average finishing position of 9.5 at similar tracks. He is starting 6th and has a better car than Logano (who starts 5th) especially on long runs. Larson has led more than 130 laps in two of the last three races here but has never won here, which is ok because we will be looking elsewhere for our winner.

Tournament Targets

Phoenix Review:

• Denny Hamlin (133.75 DK pts)

• Austin Dillon (24.00 DK pts)

• Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (30.00 DK pts)

Phoenix Picks:

Kevin Harvick ($10,800 DK , $14,000 FD)

Picking between the championship drivers is a BRUTAL choice. Hamlin is starting on the pole and has a very fast car but there was a stark difference between his 10 and 15 lap averages and he has started here on the pole before and has not been able to capitalize. Kyle Busch is starting 4th and had the best single lap time and the second best 10 lap average. He has a great track history and has proven he can lead some laps here but can he get up front? Truex has the car to beat on the long run and will be a force to be reckoned with late in the race when the sun goes down. Where does that leave Harvick? He has the best track history of the bunch with an average finishing position of 3.33 in the last three races and more than 45 laps led in 4/5. I am actually hoping his practice times actually scare people off of Harvick so we can get some serious leverage. He sneakily has the best average running position at this track (3.33) and similar tracks (7.67 this season). In reality, this is not an all-in spot, that's why he was not featured in the foundational targets section. I will have a fair share of ownership on each driver, with many lineups featuring 2 of the 4. Right now I rank them Harvick>Truex Jr> Busch> Hamlin but I can see a scenario where they all score similarly and it will actually be the ancillary drivers that make the difference.

Chris Buescher ($6,700 DK , $6,000 FD)

Buescher has posted seven consecutive top 20s at 1.5 mile tracks and has an average finish of 17.47 at similar tracks for the year. He starts 20th (further forward than he ever has at Homestead) but does have three consecutive races here with positive place differential. He is cheaper than Stenhouse Jr., DiBenedetto and Johnson but has a similar floor/ceiling projection, so sign me up for some savings and upside.

Daniel Suarez ($7,400 DK , $8,000 FD)

Who doesn't like a good narrative? Suarez found out this week he is out of a job and has an average finishing position of 32nd here...why not write him up? If we dig a little deeper, we can see that Suarez has actually been very good this season at similar tracks, with an average finishing position of 14. And even though he finished poorly here, he actually had an average running position of 19.5. Suarez also showed some speed in his car with the 13th best single lap, 10 lap and 15 lap averages in practice. He is slightly more expensive than I would like, so he may be difficult to fit in, which should ultimately lower his ownership.

Bargain Bin

Phoenix Review

• Michael McDowell (3.00)

Homestead Pick

BJ McLeod ($4,500 DK,$2,000 FD)

God help me for actually considering him this weekend but you can't beat the price. There will have to be three studs in the perfect lineup for McLeod to find himself there but he is a legitimate cash game consideration. He has an average finishing position of 33 at similar tracks this season and can't lose you any points....sometimes that is all you need.

Other Drivers To Consider

Phoenix Review

• Kyle Larson (41.50 DK pts)

• Ty Dillon (33.50 DK)

• Aric Almirola (11.00 DK pts)

Here are 3 more drivers I like at the Homestead that have a chance to make some noise, in no particular order:

Bubba Wallace ($5,900 DK, $4,000 FD)

Paul Menard ($7,200 DK, $5,500 FD)

Austin Dillon ($7,100 DK, $7,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Phoenix Review

• Martin Truex Jr (58.00 DK pts)

Homestead Pick

Ryan Blaney ($9,400 DK, $10,500 FD)

Blaney has never finished better than 17th here and starting 7th...that's not great. He hasn't fared particularly well at similar tracks, with an average finish of 16.8 this year. He posted good a single lap and 10 lap average in practice but he is fairly expensive and will need to lead laps or win to end up in the perfect lineup.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Ford EcoBoost 400 Cheatsheet and find me on Twitter. Good Luck!

🚨 Get 3 Free Months of LineStar Premium 🚨

Get 3-months of LineStar Premium for new users to SuperDraft who deposit/play $10!

Terms: Partnership offers do NOT renew. See SuperDraft landing page for full terms and conditions. Must be a new user to SuperDraft and deposit and play a minimum of $10 to qualify. If you have an existing LineStar Premium subscription you get a Hat/Tee/Pen combo instead of the 3-months.