Written by @joejets19

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NASCAR Bluegreen Vacations 500 🏁

We are down to the final two races of the season as NASCAR makes its second trip to ISM Raceway in Avondale, AZ for the Bluegreen Vacations 500. ISM is a 1.022 mile dogleg oval that features a unique layout and slight reconfiguration. This is a do or die race for many playoff drivers, so there are sure to be fireworks in store for Sunday.

Last race’s winning lineups:

Perfect Lineup: Harvick, Suarez, Austin Dillon, Bowman, Bowyer, Almirola 405.75 DK pts.

$100K First Gear: Almirola, Bowman, Bowyer, Harvick, Newman, Suarez 405.25 DK pts. Min cash:289.75 DK Pts

$40K Chrome Horn: Almirola, Bowman, Bowyer, Harvick, Newman, Suarez 405.25 DK pts. Min cash: 290.50 DK Pts

On to Phoenix!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points = 0.25 points per lap led. This week, 312 laps will be run and 78 points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.5 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 267 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 133.5 possible points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗️

ISM is one of the few tracks where one dominator lineups are a legitimate option. Six of the last seven perfect lineups have featured only one driver leading more than 100 laps even though eight drivers have led more than 100 laps in the last seven races. All but one driver that has led more than 80 laps in the previous seven races have started in the top 10 and surprisingly, one one of those drivers started on the front row.

Passing is not an issue at ISM so we are going to want four to five place differential drivers that can both pick up spots and finish well. Only 6 of the 42 drivers in the last seven perfect lineups have finished outside the top 12 (less than one driver per lineup).

Bargain drivers are going to be a risk this week because there aren't too many low cost drivers that have a top 12 ceiling. In cash they are a perfectly acceptable option but if you want to win a GPP, you may want to aim for a more balance approach.

Stage 1: 75 laps, Stage 2: 75 laps, Stage 3: 162 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Texas Review:

• Kevin Harvick (109.25 DK pts)

• William Byron (32.50 DK pts)

Phoenix Picks:

Kyle Busch ($11,900 DK, $15,000 FD)

Kyle Busch is in a great position for DFS purposes this weekend. He is starting on the pole at a track where he won each of the last two races and led more than 100 laps in three of the last four races. He needs a win to lock up a spot in the championship (he can get in on points but why settle for that) and oh, Busch also has a very fast car. There is no need to overthink this one, roster him and move on.

Ryan Newman ($7,600 DK, $7,000 FD)

This is another track that Newman historically has had success at but had a difficult time in practice. Starting 20th, Newman has top 12 potential based on his average finish of 11 in the last 5 here and he has a positive average place differential of 7 spots. There are very few low priced drivers with top 12 potential and Newman is one of them.

Tournament Targets

Texas Review:

• Denny Hamlin (-7.50 DK pts)

• Paul Menard (35.50 DK pts)

• Clint Bowyer(59.50 DK pts)

Phoenix Picks:

Denny Hamlin ($10,600 DK , $13,500 FD)

I am sticking with Denny this week as my second potential dominator. Hamlin has arguably the best car over the long run but he needs to find a way to get around Busch to do any damage. He has six top 10 finishes in his last eight races here and even led 193 laps in one race before crashing and finishing 35th. Hamlin is currently on the outside looking in for the championship and will need to pick up 21 more points than Logano to punch his ticket to Homestead.

Austin Dillon ($6,800 DK , $6,500 FD)

I have written up the Dillon brothers more in the last month than I think I ever have, but it has been paying off. Austin is starting 28th but had the 15th best single lap and 13th best 10 lap average in second practice. He has an average finishing position of 15.8 in the last five races here and a high finish of 8th.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr ($6,600 DK , $6,700 FD)

Ricky is literally the reason I made this pick my risky pick of the week and its refreshing every time he lands back here. Stenhouse is starting 24th and has an average finish of 16.2 in his last five races here and an average finish of 19th at similar tracks this season. Stenhouse has three top 13 finishes in the last 5 races here and has legitimate top 10 potential, but is always a risk of spinning out and finishing 35th.

Bargain Bin

Texas Review

• Michael McDowell (22.00)

Phoenix Pick

David Ragan ($5,500 DK,$3,000 FD)

We have to pick our spots in this range and as the year has progressed some quality drivers have fallen down here. This week, Ragan stands head and shoulders above the rest. He is starting 30th and actually turned in the 15th best single lap time in first practice and has an average finish position of 27th in his last 5 races here.

Other Drivers To Consider

Texas Review

• Jimmie Johnson (14.50 DK pts)

• Ryan Preece (26.50 DK)

• Aric Almirola (86.50 DK pts)

Here are 3 more drivers I like at the Phoenix that have a chance to make some noise, in no particular order:

Kyle Larson ($9,600 DK, $13,000 FD)

Ty Dillon ($6,200 DK, $5,000 FD)

Aric Almirola ($8,100 DK, $8,500 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Texas Review

• Brad Keselowski (-26.00 DK pts)

Phoenix Pick

Martin Truex Jr. ($11,200 DK, $14,500 FD)

Truex Jr. has already punched his ticket to Homestead and is starting 4th on Sunday. He will absolutely need to lead laps to pay off his salary (something he hasn't been able to do since 2007) and is reportedly working with a skeleton crew this weekend and is just trying to run out the clock until he races for all of the marbles.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Bluegreen Vacations 500 Cheatsheet and find me on Twitter. Good Luck!

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