Written by @joejets19

Join the LineStar NASCAR Chat for info from experts.

NASCAR AAA Texas 500 🏁

After one of the most dominant performances in recent memory, NASCAR moves on to Texas Motor Speedway in Fort Worth, TX for the AAA Texas 500. The track is a 1.5 mile quad oval with variable banking. They will be running the standard package (low horsepower and aeroducts) and if this race plays out anything like the Spring race, there will be a ton of drafting and passing. There is no threat of weather in the area so the race should go off without a hitch.

Last race’s winning lineups:

Perfect Lineup: Hamlin, Truex Jr, Lajoie, Wallace, Newman, Byron 533.50 DK pts.

$100K First Gear: Byron, Ty Dillon, Hamlin, Lajoie, Newman, Truex Jr 509.50 DK pts. Min cash:312.50 DK Pts

$40K Chrome Horn: Byron, Hamlin, Hemric, Lajoie, Newman, Truex Jr 515.00 DK pts. Min cash: 309.50 DK Pts

On to Texas!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points = 0.25 points per lap led. This week, 334 laps will be run and 83.50 points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.5 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 300 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 150 possible points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗️

The first race at Texas played out exactly how NASCAR hoped this rules package would perform. There were 26 lead changes, plenty of drafting and even green flag passes for the lead. There was no singular dominator and four drivers that led between 45-60 laps. All of these factors lead the perfect lineup to look more like a road course lineup than an oval lineup. I would caution anyone from overreacting to the first race because I believe dominators will be very important on Sunday, especially with some fast cars starting up front. We traditionally want to look for at least 1 dominator and as many as three. The first place I would look for a dominator is the top 3. The importance of clean air can not be understated and whoever gets off the block early can lead a nice chunk of laps. I highly doubt we will see another performance rivaling anything we saw last week, so I will aim to roster at least one more driver starting in the top 10 to 12 that has dominator potential.

Finishing position is what I am looking for to round out my lineups this weekend. Perfect lineups for the last seven races here have featured many different constructions but they all have a few things in common. Every race, except one, has a perfect lineup with at least 4 drivers finishing in the top 10 and even their punt drivers have to be able to finish 25th or better.

Overall, we are going to want 2-3 drivers starting in the top 10 that we think can lead laps and finish in the top 10. We will also want 2-3 drivers starting pretty much anywhere in the field that we think can finish in the top 10 and then a max of 1 punt that will finish in the top 25.

Stage 1: 85 laps, Stage 2: 85 laps, Stage 3: 164 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Martinsville Review:

• Denny Hamlin (67.50 DK pts)

• Ty Dillon (23.00 DK pts)

Texas Picks:

Kevin Harvick ($10,400 DK, $14,000 FD)

I am going to make this very easy for everyone this week, Harvick has the best average finish at Texas in the last 5 races here, has an average finish of 5th at similar tracks this season and starts on the pole. In the five previous races that he has started on the pole this season, he has led at least 60 laps in four of them with the one poor performance coming at Richmond. He has a fast car over both the short and long run and if he holds off Hamlin early should have a clear path to a nice amount of laps led.

William Byron ($8,000 DK, $10,000 FD)

Byron is not a driver I target often, usually because of his phenomenal qualifying runs. This week we get him at a relative discount (the cheapest he's been since Indy) and he gifted us a poor qualifying effort by his standards (he starts 18th on Sunday). We are looking for driver to finish in the top 10 and Byron showed some serious speed on Friday, posting the 11th and 7th best single lap times in the first and second practices respectively. He also has an average finish of 10.6 in his three races at Texas including a top finish of 6th.

Tournament Targets

Martinsville Review:

• Clint Bowyer (-9.50 DK pts)

• Austin Dillon (24.00 DK pts)

• Brad Keselowski (53.00 DK pts)

Texas Picks:

Denny Hamlin ($10,800 DK , $13,500 FD)

I try not to recommend too many high priced drivers but looking at the top 10, I believe he has the second best chance of being a dominator. He is much more accident prone here than I would like but his car is easily one of the best in the field and he won here in March. He carries significant risk because he needs to lead laps to pay off his salary but if anyone is going to pass Harvick, I think its Denny.

Paul Menard ($7,300 DK , $5,500 FD)

We are looking for top 10's and that might be a stretch for Menard but this is a solid leverage play. Menard was heavily owned last week and let a ton of people down, which makes him a nice tournament play on Sunday. I was struggling to decide between Menard and Newman for this spot but when I dug deeper I saw that Menard had the better practice times on Friday, the better average finish at similar tracks and starts 6 spots further back at a cheaper price tags. We are going to need to fit the dominators in somehow and Menard provides a nice floor for the salary.

Clint Bowyer ($8,800 DK , $8,500 FD)

Bowyer loves to get himself in trouble during the November Texas race and thats why he landed in the high risk spot. Starting 24th, he actually has some safety built in and with an average finish of 16.8 in the last five here he has good finishes to balance out the poor ones. I have more confidence in Bowyer's ability to finish in the top 10 than any other driver starting 20th or worse and that lands him squarely in tournament consideration.

Bargain Bin

Martinsville Review

• Garrett Smithley

Texas Pick

Michael McDowell ($5,700 DK,$4,000 FD)

This is the first week in what feels like forever that we have actual options in this range and McDowell stands out above the rest. He has an average finish of 20.4 in his last five races here and even turned in the 12th best single lap time in second practice on Friday. That is enough to prove to he has the highest upside of anyone in this range.

Other Drivers To Consider

Martinsville Review

• Jimmie Johnson (-3.50 DK pts)

• Chase Elliott (-12.50 DK)

• Kurt Busch (57.00 DK pts)

Here are 3 more drivers I like at the Martinsville that have a chance to make some noise, in no particular order:

Jimmie Johnson ($8,600 DK, $8,000 FD)

Ryan Preese ($6,400 DK, $4,500 FD)

Aric Almirola ($7,500 DK, $7,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Martinsville Review

• Kevin Harvick (53.50 DK pts)

Texas Pick

Brad Keselowski ($9,600 DK, $11,000 FD)

Keselowski showed almost no speed in practice on Friday and has a more than worrisome track history. He is cheaper than most of the studs but also only has two top 10 finishes in the last 6 races here and minimal laps led. For the extra few hundred bucks, you are better off paying for Chase Elliott.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Find me on Twitter. Good Luck!

🚨 Get 3 Free Months of LineStar Premium 🚨

Get 3-months of LineStar Premium for new users to SuperDraft who deposit/play $10!

Terms: Partnership offers do NOT renew. See SuperDraft landing page for full terms and conditions. Must be a new user to SuperDraft and deposit and play a minimum of $10 to qualify. If you have an existing LineStar Premium subscription you get a Hat/Tee/Pen combo instead of the 3-months.