Written by @joejets19

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NASCAR First Data 500 🏁

The third round of the playoffs starts on Sunday when NASCAR travels to Martinsville Speedway in Ridgeway, VA for the First Data 500. Martinsville is a 0.526 mile dual surface oval that is affectionately known as "The Paperclip" due to its relatively long straightaways and sharp turns. There is supposed to be weather overnight so the track condition will be important. And if the race gets delayed, there are lights at the track. This will be the last race of the season with race-day inspections so follow along on twitter closely to see if there are any significant changes in the starting lineup.

Last race’s winning lineups:

Perfect Lineup: Byron, Preece, Jones, Hamlin, Larson, Buescher 399.00 DK pts.

$100K First Gear: Kyle Busch, Byron, Jones, Kligerman, Preece 388.00 DK pts. Min cash: 285.75 DK Pts

$40K Chrome Horn: Kyle Busch, Byron, Jones, Kligerman, Preece 388.00 DK pts. Min cash: 283.00 DK Pts

On to Martinsville!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points = 0.25 points per lap led. This week, 500 laps will be run and 125.00 points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.5 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 435 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 217.5 possible points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗️

***This is an impound race so the lineup will not be official until inspection is complete Sunday morning. Inspection starts at 9 am and I will try to update everyone via chat and Twitter about how things are progressing. Make sure to follow along and help each-other out. If a driver fails inspection, their qualifying time will be disallowed and they will be moved to the rear of the field for real life and DFS purposes (they will be scored from the rear of the field). This newsletter is based off of the unofficial starting lineup and the driver recommendations are subject to change as inspection progresses. As always, I will be in chat to answer any questions and provide any updates.***

Now that we got the disclaimer out of the way, we are going to start with our dominators. There are a ton of dominator points up for grabs on Sunday with 500 laps scheduled to be run and we are going to want to roster at least one dominator and as many as three. The last two races here have featured only one driver dominating and leading more than 300 laps. Previously there have been between two and three drivers leading more than 100 laps each. The top 10 is a great place to pick dominators from, with 10 of the last 11 drivers that led more than 100 laps starting in the top 10. Two of those drivers ran into trouble during the race and failed to make the perfect lineup so a front-loaded lineup does come with considerable risk. To narrow the search a little more, each of the last five perfect lineups had one driver starting in the top 3.

Just because drivers don't have a problem hanging on to the lead doesn't mean it is impossible to pass at Martinsville. There have been several races where two drivers starting in the 30+ have made it into the perfect lineup. Some of those have come from good drivers qualifying poorly and other times a "jam them in" approach lead to two backmarkers making the perfect lineup just by surviving.

Obligatory cheatsheet note: The model projection I incorporated this week works independent of starting position, so each individual driver's projected finishing position will not change if they get moved to the rear. Their fantasy point projections would be a different story.

Stage 1: 130 laps, Stage 2: 130 laps, Stage 3: 240 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Kansas Review:

• Kevin Harvick (67.00 DK pts)

• Paul Menard (31.00 DK pts)

Martinsville Picks:

Denny Hamlin ($11,000 DK, $14,500 FD)

This is an incredibly difficult decision with Hamlin, Elliott and Truex Jr. starting in the top 3. I will definitely want exposure to all three if I am multi-entering but will not be playing them at equal weight. Hamlin is starting on the pole and Keselowski showed us during the Spring race how important clean air is at Martinsville with the new package. His single lap speed was not overly impressive but his lap averages were. He was neck and neck with Truex Jr. in the 10, 15 and 20 lap averages in second practice but blew him away in the 25 lap average. Elliott has the better average finish here and has shown dominator potential with over 100 laps led in a recent race here but I think the edge goes to Hamlin. Another factor to consider this weekend is lineup combinations, Hamlin is the third highest priced driver on DK which is a slight discount and can still be paired with Keselowski in two dominator lineups. A nice pair with Elliott could be Kyle Busch but that will cost you $1,100 more.

Ty Dillon ($6,200 DK, $5,000 FD)

We are starving for value this weekend unless tech opens things up on Sunday but I think Ty will help us raise our floor at a cheap cost. Starting 29th, Dillon is starting one spot ahead of Paul Menard who may be popular but has an inferior car. Dillon had the 11th best single lap time in second practice and the 19th best 10 lap average in first practice. He has an average finish of 20.4 in his last five races here and an average finish of 21.9 at similar tracks this year. He will be the first place I look for a value driver in cash.

Tournament Targets

Kansas Review:

• Ryan Blaney (19.50 DK pts)

• Aric Almirola (13.00 DK pts)

• Daniel Hemric (-15.50 DK pts)

Martinsville Picks:

Clint Bowyer ($8,900 DK , $10,500 FD)

We are in the dominator hunt and an affordable driver starting in the top 10 with a reasonable chance to lead laps is Clint Bowyer. That may sound like a lot of qualifiers but they are actually all the boxes that Bowyer checks. Bowyer starts 7th and posted the best 10 and 15 lap average in both practices on Saturday as well as the best 20 lap average in second practice. He has a rocket ship over the long runs, it just depends on if he can make it to the front and lead laps.

Austin Dillon ($6,700 DK , $6,300 FD)

The inferior Dillon brother also runs well at Martinsville, with an average finish of 17.8 over his last 5 races here. He starts 23rd so he carries some risk, but he has three top 13 finishes here in that time with a career best finish of 4th. This is more of a history and gut call considering his rather poor practice speeds but he has tournament winning upside if he can stay clean.

Brad Keselowski ($9,500 DK , $13,500 FD)

I mentioned Keselowski by name in the first section, so how does he qualify as a boom or bust candidate? Well he qualified in no-mans land. Starting 15th, he will not be able to pay off his salary on place differential alone but he is starting too far back to be 100% comfortable with his ability to dominate. He led more than 100 laps in three of the last five races here but they all came with him starting in the top 7. He does have some history on his side however, he led over 100 laps when he started 11th several years back...he just didn't finish the race in the best manner.

Bargain Bin

Kanas Review

• JJ Yeley (20.00 DK pts)

Martinsville Pick

Garrett Smithley ($4,700 DK)

DraftKings continues to make NASCAR pricing brutal and this range is atrocious. I would try to avoid it if we could but if we need a bargain bin driver, Smithley is the only driver that meets the criteria of "practiced better than he qualified." It doesn't hurt that he can't lose you any points, but that will go out the window if anyone fails inspection.

Other Drivers To Consider

Kansas Review

• Chris Buescher (44.00 DK pts)

• Alex Bowman (41.25 DK)

• Martin Truex Jr (62.25 DK pts)

Here are 3 more drivers I like at the Martinsville that have a chance to make some noise, in no particular order:

Jimmie Johnson ($8,100 DK, $9,200 FD)

Chase Elliott ($9,800 DK, $13,000 FD)

Kurt Busch ($8,500 DK, $9,600 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Kansas Review

• Ryan Newman (-29.00 DK pts)-This didn't work out well.

Martinsville Pick

Kevin Harvick ($10,500 DK, $12,500 FD)

Harvick is starting 22nd and has a great chance to finish in the top 10, I just don't think that will be enough to get him into the perfect lineup. He is in an even worse position then Keselowski because he is more expensive but has less of a chance to lead laps. In one dominator lineups he will, without a doubt, be very useful because all of the dominator points will be soaked up by one driver. But if there is more than one dominator he needs to be one of them to land in the perfect lineup.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the First Data 500 Cheatsheet and find me on Twitter. Good Luck!

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