Written by @joejets19

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NASCAR Hollywood Casino 400 🏁

Another elimination race is upon us after the two day extravaganza at Talladega last weekend. NASCAR is making their second trip of the season to Kansas Speedway in Kansas City, KS for the Hollywood Casino 400. Kansas is a 1.5 mile banked tri-oval that will feature dominators and big movers. The standard package will be run on Sunday (low-hp and aeroducts) and weather should not be an issue until later in the day.

Last race’s winning lineups:

Perfect Lineup: Hamlin, Blaney, Lajoie, McDowell, Newman, Chastain 383.5 DK pts.

$100K Big One: Blaney, Cassill, Hamlin, Lajoie, McDowell, Newman 370.75 DK pts. Min cash: 245.25 DK Pts

$50K Chrome Horn: Blaney, Kyle Busch, Ty Dillon, Hamlin, Lajoie, Newman 350.75 DK pts Min cash: 241.75 DK Pts

On to Kansas!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points = 0.25 points per lap led. This week, 267 laps will be run and 66.75 points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.5 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 232 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 116 possible points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗️

After the catastrophe of last race, let's see if we can get back on track. Six of the last seven races at Kansas has seen two drivers lead more than 70 laps (with one of those drivers leading more than 100 laps). The outlier race was the May race of this year, which was jumbled up by pre-race inspections. There is a strong correlation between starting in the front row and being one of the major dominators but with two relative unknowns starting up front, that strategy may change. The second dominator is not nearly as easy to nail down and has come from as far back as 22nd, so this is an interesting week for GPPs because there are a number of possible outcomes.

A balanced approach is usually warranted at Kansas. Yes we are going to try and pick the two dominators but there is no real pattern to the last seven perfect lineups. When good drivers qualified poorly, they usually picked up enough points to be useful. When it made sense to jam in a few studs, playing two bargain drivers helped propel a lineup to the top. This is one of the few tracks that the best lineup construction is "play what the slate gives you." One interesting note, most lineups had one driver that qualified well that didn't lead or pick up a ton of spots but turned in a solid race and paid of their salary (example: Allmendinger in 10/16 started 10th and finished 8th). If you are satisfied with the first five drivers in your lineup and you are stuck on the final spot, don't be afraid to roster one of these low ceiling/low floor drivers because they have actually proven to be the difference.

Stage 1: 80 laps, Stage 2: 80 laps, Stage 3: 107 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Talladega Review:

• Joey Gase (10.00 DK pts)

• Matt DiBenedetto (18.5 DK pts)

Kansas Picks:

Kevin Harvick ($11,000 DK, $14,500 FD)

Harvick will be MEGA-chalk after not being allowed to qualify and starting 40th. Kansas is a track that has seen a lot of passing and had four drivers starting worse than 30th in the perfect lineup in May. Harvick's single lap speeds were top-10 in both practices on Friday and he had the fifth best 10-lap average in second practice. He has also run very well at Kansas, with an average finish of 7.4 in the last five races, including a win. Harvick may not be able to dominate but he has an incredibly high floor.

Paul Menard ($6,900 DK, $7,000 FD)

Dominators tend to be expensive and with Harvick starting in the back, we need some reasonably priced drivers we can depend on. Menard practiced incredibly well on Friday with the 7th and 11th best single lap times and the 7th best 10-lap average in second practice. He is starting 22nd behind Erik Jones and Cint Bowyer with an arguably better can at a steep discount. I wish he had a better history at Kansas but maybe that will be enough to scare some people away because his average finish of 15th at similar tracks this season if very encouraging.

Tournament Targets

Talladega Review:

• Ryan Preece (39.50 DK pts)

• Brendan Gaughan (20.50 DK pts)

• Joey Logano (39.50 DK pts)

Kansas Picks:

Ryan Blaney ($9,200 DK , $10,500 FD)

Blaney, Keselowski and Larson are starting 3, 4, 5 on Sunday and they all need to be in consideration as possible dominators. Keselowski feels trappy because he has a long history of qualifying well but not being able to lead a significant amount of laps. Larson has been on fire lately and has shown the ability to dominate at Kansas but his car did not show a ton of speed in practice, and at his salary, he needs to lead laps or pick up fastest laps to be useful. Blaney, on the other hand, has shown serious speed in practice over short and long runs. He has also been able to lead laps, with more than 50 laps led in two of the last five races here. All three drivers are around the same price and provide a massive discount to some of the top priced drivers, but I believe Blaney has the best chance to land in the perfect lineup.

Aric Almirola ($7,800 DK , $8,200 FD)

Almirola has been off of my radar in recent weeks but has the opportunity to fill a vital role this weekend. He is starting 13th but has shown a top 10 car in practice. He has finished in the top 12 in each of the last four races and posted positive place differential in two. I was looking for a low floor, low ceiling driver to balance out a lineup and Almirola fits the narrative with a floor of 15th and a ceiling of 7th. He has a legitimate shot to pay off his salary.

Daniel Hemric ($6,600 DK , $5,500 FD)

There is legitimate magic in the pole position at Kansas and with the addition of this package, I think Hemric has a shot at leading a decent amount of laps. I am not calling this a lock. There is a reason he is in the high risk section of this article. But we have seen all season that when a fast car gets clean air, it is very hard to pass. I believe he beats Ragan off the block pretty easily and if he can hold off the big guys behind him until the first round of pit stops, all he needs to do is hold on to a top 10 to pay off his salary.

Bargain Bin

Talladega Review

• Brad Keselowski (7.00 DK pts)

Kansas Pick

JJ Yeley ($5,100 DK , $2,000 FD)

This is an absolutely brutal price range this week with two, I said TWO drivers starting in the top 6. I admitted my Parker Kligerman problem and few weeks ago but this week I am going to move on to Yeley who actually practiced slightly better than his 36th place starting position. That is pretty much the nicest thing I can say about him.

Other Drivers To Consider

Talladega Review

• Ty Dillon (48.50 DK pts)

• Kurt Busch (16.00 DK)

• Spencer Boyd (3.00 DK pts)

Here are 3 more drivers I like at the Kansas that have a chance to make some noise, in no particular order:

Chris Buescher ($6,700 DK, $6,600 FD)

Alex Bowman ($8,600 DK, $9,700 FD)

Martin Truex Jr ($10,800 DK, $13,500 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Talladega Review

• Denny Hamlin (80.50 DK pts)-This didn't work out well.

Kansas Pick

Ryan Newman ($7,300 DK, $8,000 FD)

The two most obvious fades are Ragan and McDowell. I am aiming for slightly higher hanging fruit with Newman. He did not impress in practice and has posted negative place diff in four of the last five races here. His average finish in the last 5 races here is 28.2 and while his average finish at similar tracks this year is a much better 13.78, it is still far behind his 7th place starting position.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Hollywood Casino 400 Cheatsheet and find me on Twitter. Good Luck!

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