Written by @joejets19

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The wild card of the second round of the playoffs is this weekend as NASCAR makes its second trip of the year to Talladega Superspeedway in Lincoln, AL for the 1000Bulbs.com 500. Talladega is a 2.66 mile tri-oval which used to be one of two restrictor plate tracks on the circuit, but this year they have taken the plates away due the lower hp and higher downforce. I was worried the first time around because I was not sure if the lack of a restrictor plate would change the DFS strategy but I don't think that will be the case. Weather may be an issue on Sunday and I wouldn't be shocked if they move the race to Monday, hopefully they make a decision before lock.

Last race’s winning lineups:

Perfect Lineup: Larson, DiBenedetto, Hamlin, Bowman, Johnson, Preece 448.25 DK pts.

$100K First Gear: Bowman, DiBenedetto, Hamlin, Johnson, Larson, Wallace 443.25 DK pts. Min cash: 327.75 DK Pts

$50K Chrome Horn: Bowman, DiBenedetto, Hamlin, Johnson, Larson, Wallace 443.25 DK pts Min cash: 323.50 DK Pts

On to Talladega!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points = 0.25 points per lap led. This week, 188 laps will be run and 47 points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.5 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 160 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 80 possible points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗️

Lets get this out of the way early...in cash games, play six drivers starting 30th or worse and move on. Even though the restrictor plates are a thing of the past, "The Big One" isn't. In the fall race here, it took almost the entire race, but eventually half the field got caught up in a major wreck and the field was turned on its head. The reason we focus on drivers starting in the back at Daytona and Talladega is 1) if they get caught in a wreck they won't go negative (relatively stable floor) and 2) if they survive the race they will usually pick up a top 15 (high ceiling).

GPP lineups are usually more nuanced at Talladega because dominators do exist here. I am still debating how to attack this slate because I really want to play 150 lineups but the payout structures have gotten very bad as the season winds down. If I go that route, I think I will make 100 lineups consisting only of drivers starting 25th or worse so I have have a nice base and then probably another 50 lineups that sprinkle in drivers starting 1-24 and try to grab the dominator without hitting a landmine. Three of the last seven perfect lineups had two drivers starting in the top 11 and three additional perfect lineups had two drivers starting in the top 20. There is no magic starting position that guarantees safety so solid strategy and decent luck will be needed to nail the perfect lineup.

Two important notes for the race. 1) Don't get overexposed to any singular driver. I think I have mentioned this before in chat but you should never play a driver 100%. Every track has an attrition rate, or an average number of cars that run into trouble per race. Ideally, your max ownership should be set to 100%-attrition rate (that is why I add the section about how many drivers finished more than 5 laps down in the perfect lineup section of the cheatsheet). 2) Speaking of the cheatsheet, I did not upload any model information this week because every driver's floor is 40 and ceiling is 1, so I am not going to pretend to try to project the outcome of this race.

Stage 1: 55 laps, Stage 2: 55 laps, Stage 3: 78 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Dover Review:

• Martin Truex Jr (75.75 DK pts)

• Austin Dillon (36.00 DK pts)

Talladega Picks: 

Joey Gase ($5,100 DK, $2,000 FD)

You know it's a Talladega newsletter when Joey Gase gets the star treatment. Gase has run four races here and has picked up spots in each one of them and has a worst finish of 32nd which includes two races where he had car issues. He is starting 36th on Sunday and even if he finishes last, he will still only score 0 points, which will not be the lowest score of the race.

Matt DiBenedetto ($7,900 DK, $6,500 FD)

DiBenedetto runs great at Daytona and eh at Talladega, but starting 31st he is one of the few drivers in this range that has legitimate upside. While most of these picks rely on the "Big One" to happen, DiBenedetto has shown all season that he is comfortable racing his way through traffic to pull off a nice finish. If the race does not go the way we think it will, it's always good to still have drivers that have multiple paths to the perfect lineup.

Tournament Targets

Dover Review:

• Kyle Larson (113.50 DK pts)

• Jimmie Johnson (57.25 DK pts)

• Daniel Suarez (35.25 DK pts)

Talladega Picks:

Ryan Preece ($6,100 DK , $4,000 FD)

Preece had a fantastic Spring race at Talladega starting 30th and finishing 3rd. He had very nice practice times on Friday but will be starting 30th again this weekend. I don't foresee another 3rd place finish but a top 10 should be able to land him in the perfect lineup.

Brendan Gaughan ($5,700 DK , $3,500 FD)

Gaughan is a restrictor plate specialist that the DFS community has caught on to. This is not the first time I have written him up this season and he outdid himself here in the Spring, finishing 8th. Gaughan starts 28th on Sunday, which is a little further forward than ideal, but he has posted positive place differential in seven of his eight career Cup races here. He will be relatively popular, so he will not be a sneaky play but he provides some safety in a chaotic race.

Joey Logano ($9,400 DK , $14,500 FD)

If we want to take down a GPP, we are going to need at least one driver from the top 10 and Logano is where I am looking. Joey seems to love Talladega and Daytona and has managed to lead at least 10 laps in five of the last six races here. He has an average finish of 3.5 in the last four races here but is not immune to accidents. So he does carry major risk. I will not play more than 15-20% Logano but I do think he has the best chance of any driver in the top 10 to be in the perfect lineup.

Bargain Bin

Dover Review

• Daniel Hemric (33.00 DK pts)

Talladega Pick

Brad Keselowski ($9,600 DK , $12,500 FD)

This entire article shopped from the bargain bin, so I decided to take a second stab at a dominator. Keselowski is another driver that seems to find a way to lead laps here. The question then becomes, were does he finish? He is starting further forward than Logano so he inherently carries more risk and he has also been more accident prone, so I'm not as confident in Kes. But considering his two wins in the last seven races here, he is always in play.

Other Drivers To Consider

Dover Review

• Chase Elliott (-27.00 DK pts)

• Michael McDowell (24.50 DK)

• Chris Buescher (-6.00 DK pts)

Here are 3 more drivers I like at the Talladega that have a chance to make some noise, in no particular order:

Ty Dillon ($6,800 DK, $6,000 FD)

Kurt Busch ($8,800 DK, $9,700 FD)

Spencer Boyd ($4,500 DK, $2,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Dover Review

• Paul Menard (36.00 DK pts)

Talladega Pick

Denny Hamlin ($10,300 DK, $14,000 FD)

Ok, hear me out. I know I have been preaching this entire newsletter about constructing a roster with a safe floor and picking the driver starting last is a great way to do that, but I am really worried about his ownership. I am seeing some of Nascar twitter talking about him being 75+% owned and at a track that has close to a 40% attrition rate... no thanks. In cash, lock him in because he is a great play but if you are looking to win a tournament, being incredibly underweight may be the call. My favorite thing about Nascar DFS is how often the chalk hits and if the tides turn and his ownership projection comes down to the 40-50% range, I will probably go overweight. But if he becomes a "lock" at a track that crashes half the field...count me out.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat! 

Be sure to download the 1000Bulb.com 500 Cheatsheet and find me on Twitter. Good Luck!

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