Written by @joejets19

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NASCAR Drydene 400 🏁

The first round of the playoffs finished off in wild fashion at the Roval and now NASCAR is rolling on to Dover International Speedway in Dover, DE for the Drydene 400. Dover is a steeply banked 1 mile concrete oval and will feature the high horsepower (750 hp), aeroduct-free package. Weather does not seem to be a problem so we do not need to worry about a Monday race.

Last race’s winning lineups:

Perfect Lineup: McDowell, Byron, Ty Dillon, Harvick, Elliott, Bowyer 320.00 DK pts.

$100K First Gear: DiBenedetto, Ty Dillon, Elliott, Harvick, Keselowski, McDowell 318.50 DK pts. Min cash: 233.25 DK Pts

$50K Chrome Horn: DiBenedetto, Ty Dillon, Elliott, Harvick, Keselowski, McDowell 318.50 DK pts. Min cash: 229.00 DK Pts

On to Dover!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points = 0.25 points per lap led. This week, 400 laps will be run and 100 points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.5 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 360 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 180 possible points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗️

We get the polar opposite of the a road course this weekend with a 1 mile high speed oval and a race with 400 laps. There will be 100 laps led points and (about) 180 fastest laps points up for grabs on Sunday so we are going to want to focus on dominators. Five of the last seven races here have seen two drivers lead more than 100 laps (with two additional drivers leading 85-90 laps) and two drivers lead more than 200 laps. Dominators generally start in the top 15, with one coming from the top 3. In tournaments I will be aiming for a stars and scrubs approach to try to capture as many dominator points as possible.

The perfect lineups have also been oddly front loaded at Dover. Most lineups feature 2-3 drivers starting in the top 10, that can be attributed to dominators coming from that range but there have also been other drivers that didn't dominate but were able to pay off their salary with finishing position and fastest laps. We are looking at a roster construction that consists of four drivers starting in the top 20 and two drivers (two to three that we think can dominate) and two drivers that can pick up some spots but don't necessarily have to finish in the top 20.

One important note: the perfect lineup from the May race featured all six drivers starting in the top 14. It is a crazy risky roster construction but with the high downforce, passing was difficult and handling was so good there were very few drivers that ran into trouble.

Stage 1: 120 laps, Stage 2: 120 laps, Stage 3: 160 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Roval Review:

• Denny Hamlin (35.00 DK pts)

• Ryan Newman (4.00 DK pts)

Dover Picks:

Martin Truex Jr ($11,600 DK, $14,500 FD)

Truex bounced back after a disappointing 2018 with 132 laps led and a win in the May race here. Truex is starting 3rd and posted the second best single lap time and sixth best 10 lap average in second practice. He has the second best average finish in the last five races here and the best average finish at similar tracks this year. Truex is a threat to lead laps no matter where he starts and I am looking at him to be one of the major dominators.

Austin Dillon ($6,800 DK, $6,500 FD)

Dillon is a riskier driver than what I normally try to target in this section but I love his ceiling/floor combination with a side of sneakiness. Austin has been killing lineups all season so I think he will be decently under owned but starting 27th, he deserves some cash consideration. He has an average finish of 16th here in the last 5 and a surprising average finish of 19th at similar tracks this year. His single lap speeds are good enough for the 13th best weighted average and he ran the 19th best ten lap average in second practice.

Tournament Targets

Roval Review:

• Kurt Busch (28.00 DK pts)

• Chase Elliott (87.75 DK pts)

• Michael McDowell (42.00 DK pts)

Dover Picks:

Kyle Larson ($9,700 DK , $12,500 FD)

Starting one position further forward than Truex, Larson is another driver with a great chance to dominate. In 2017, Larson led 137 laps when starting 3rd and 241 laps when starting 5th. In subsequent races he has disappointed when starting in the top 3, which held him up from being a foundational target. But he has a better car than Hamlin in short and long runs, so I think he can lead a bunch of the early laps until Truex Jr. eventually takes over.

Jimmie Johnson ($7,800 DK , $9,200 FD)

Jimmie Johnson is starting 11th on Sunday and fits the "it's hard to pass so front load lineups" narrative. We are going to be searching for value and I like Johnson's chance to pick up a few spots and finish in the top 8. He posted solid single lap speed and had the second best 10 lap average in second practice. His price puts him squarely in play and while I don't think he can dominate, he can make some noise.

Daniel Suarez ($7,300 DK , $8,000 FD)

Suarez clocks in as our high risk high reward play this week. He is starting 15th and hasn't been overly impressive in practice but actually boasts an average finish of 7.6 in the last five races here. He has accomplished this mostly through qualifying (only three races with positive place differential) so he is not a lock but he has 400 laps to pay off his salary and I like his chances.

Bargain Bin

Roval Review

• Parker Kligerman (32.00 DK pts)

Dover Pick

Daniel Hemric ($5,900 DK , $5,900 FD)

This will be a very important price range this weekend and I think there are a ton more options than usual down here. Hemric is starting 31st but looks to have a top 20 car. He posted the 14th and 21st best single lap times in the respective practices and had the 24th best 10 lap average in second practice. He finished 25th here in May but actually has an average finish of 20th at similar tracks this year. He has access to a ceiling most drivers under $6000 don't have, so we should lock him up.

Other Drivers To Consider

Roval Review

• Martin Truex Jr (39.75 DK pts)

• Ryan Blaney (37.50 DK)

• Matt DiBenedetto (40.50 DK pts)

Here are 3 more drivers I like at the Dover that have a chance to make some noise, in no particular order:

Chase Elliott ($10,300 DK, $13,000 FD)

Michael McDowell ($5,800 DK, $4,500 FD)

Chris Buescher ($7,100 DK, $6,800 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Roval Review

• William Byron (45.25 DK pts)

Dover Pick

Paul Menard ($6,700 DK, $7,000 FD)

Kind of a blah pick here but Menard is one driver I have no interest in on Sunday. Starting 13th, he only has 3 top 20 finishes in his last seven races here and an average finish of 16th at similar tracks this year. His single lap and 10 lap averages have not given me any confidence he can pull off a top 10 and without that there is no reason to roster him.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Drydene 400 Cheatsheet and find me on Twitter. Good Luck!

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