Written by @joejets19

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NASCAR Bank of America Roval 400 🏁

The first round of the playoffs ends this weekend as NASCAR makes its second trip ever to Charlotte Motor Speedway in Concord, NC for the Bank of America Roval 400. The Roval is a 2.28 mile, 17 turn D-shaped oval/road course hybrid. The drivers will be running the 750 hp package and the cars looked noticeably less stable in practice, so we are adding extra layers of unknowns this weekend. Rain may play a factor in the race on Sunday and the cars will have rain tires at their disposal.

Last race’s winning lineups:

Perfect Lineup: Wallace, Kyle Busch, Stenhouse Jr, Truex Jr, Newman, Ragan 437.75 DK pts.

$100K First Gear: Kyle Busch, Newman, Ragan, Suarez, Truex Jr, Wallace 428.75 DK pts. Min cash: 305.50 DK Pts

$50K Chrome Horn: Kyle Busch, Newman, Ragan, Suarez, Truex Jr, Wallace 428.75 DK pts. Min cash: 296.25 DK Pts

On to the Roval!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points = 0.25 points per lap led. This week, 109 laps will be run and 27.25 points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.5 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 93 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 46.5 possible points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗️

I am going to get this out of the way early, this is one of my least favorite races of the year. NASCAR gets a ton of flack for being hyper-variant and that is too simplistic of an excuse for me. There will always be races that turn into crap-shoots but there is usually a set formula we can follow to point us in the right direction and we may not get every driver right but we can exploit an edge. Road courses are not the best for DFS purposes and add the fact that this course has only been run once ever... there is almost nothing to feel comfortable about.

Only 109 laps will be run when this race takes place (remember there are some weather concerns) so there is a very limited amount of dominator points available. Last race here, two drivers combined for about 70% of the laps led and neither ended up in the perfect lineup, which leads us to two conclusions: 1) There can be a major dominator here and 2) Finishing position is the most important factor in driver selection. The sample size is so incredibly small (1 race) that there is no definite way to attack this race so I believe we will have to go with cash builds and GPP builds.

In cash, I would ignore dominators entirely and just try to balance place differential drivers with finishing position drivers. Eight of the drivers that finished in the top nine last race here are also starting in the top nine, so we will want to roster one to two drivers starting in the top 10 (one that can win and one that can pick up some spots and finish well). We will then want to fill out our lineup with drivers that can either pick up a good number of spots or at least finish in the top 15. Remember, finishing position is important so the further back we think a driver will finish, the more places that driver will have to pick up.

In GPPs, we will want to throw an extra top 10 driver into the build and hope we soak up all of the laps led. This game plan will be extra tricky this week because pit strategy could be a major factor if one driver pits off sequence to start a stage up front. I believe the cash roster construction will be viable in tournaments, but on the off chance that a dominator does emerge and lead more than half the laps (which would still only give you an extra 14 points), it could set you apart from the field.

Stage 1: 25 laps, Stage 2: 25 laps, Stage 3: 59 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Richmond Review:

• Joey Logano (50.00 DK pts)

• Ryan Newman (61.00 DK pts)

Roval Picks:

Denny Hamlin ($10,400 DK, $11,500 FD)

Hamlin is in an almost identical spot as last year. He qualified 28th but has to start in the rear due to a crash in first practice. Last year he qualified 27th but also had to start in the rear and was able to make his way all the way up to 12th. This year he is much more expensive and he does carry much more risk. But oddly enough, the perfect lineup last year left $2400 on the table so, theoretically, the price difference can be written off. Hamlin is a solid road course driver with a top 10 in seven of the last nine road races and is no stranger to driving through the field.

Ryan Newman ($8,300 DK, $8,500 FD)

I am doubling down on Newman this weekend due to the playoff angle. He is currently sitting in 9th place but is only safe by 13 points and he starts behind every driver behind him in the standings. While we may not see too many cautions this week, we will probably see a fair share of spins outs and mishaps, and I would prefer to invest in a driver whose main goal is to make it through all 109 laps in one piece than someone who is pushing the envelope through all 17 turns.

Tournament Targets

Richmond Review:

• Martin Truex Jr (102.25 DK pts)

• Ty Dillon (24.50 DK pts)

• Daniel Hemric (16.00 DK pts)

Roval Picks:

Kurt Busch ($9,000 DK , $11,200 FD)

Call me crazy, but Kurt Busch is actually a bargain this week. This is tied for his lowest price since the August Michigan race and he is somewhat of a road course specialist. Busch has an average finish of 8th in his last seven road races but an average starting position of 17th, which checks both boxes we are looking for (finishing position and place differential). He is also on the outside looking in for the playoffs and since he is starting 23rd, he will have his work cut out for him if he wants to move on.

Chase Elliott ($9,600 DK , $13,000 FD)

There are a lot of drivers in the $8,000-$10,000 range that are in good spots this weekend and Elliott may be my favorite. He is starting 19th and posted top 10 single lap speeds in every practice, including the best time in third practice. He offers a great discount compared to Denny Hamlin but is more expensive than Kurt Busch, so he may go overlooked but I love him for a top 7 finish.

Michael McDowell ($6,000 DK , $4,500 FD)

McDowell had himself a health scare Friday but was able to practice on Saturday and I am looking at him for some low owned upside. He has a top 20 finish in six of his last eight road races but most of them came with negative place differential, which makes him fairly risky. He posted the 16th and 5th best single lap times during the Saturday practices and at this price and starting position (22nd) he is well worth the risk.

Bargain Bin

Richmond Review

• David Ragan (42.00 DK pts)

Roval Pick

Parker Kligerman ($5,100 DK , $2,500 FD)

Hello my name is Joe and I have a Parker Kligerman problem. Kligerman runs an abbreviated schedule (this will be his 12th race this year) and I think he has been on my radar for most of them. On Sunday he is starting 40th, so going to the rear means absolutely nothing. I have focused this entire newsletter on securing a good floor while looking for upside and Parker literally cannot go negative. This will be his first time running the Roval but even if he gets close to his average road course finish he has a good chance of paying off his salary. His practice times are downright miserable so he will need to rely on skill and attrition to get into the perfect lineup but he should at least give us a fighting chance.

Other Drivers To Consider

Richmond Review

• Paul Menard (28.50DK pts)

• Kyle Busch (130.00 DK)

• Kyle Larson (47.50 DK pts)

Here are 3 more drivers I like at the Roval that have a chance to make some noise, in no particular order:

Martin Truex Jr. ($10,900 DK, $14,500 FD)

Ryan Blaney ($9,200 DK, $10,500 FD)

Matt DiBenedetto ($7,600 DK, $8,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Richmond Review

• Clint Bowyer (34.50 DK pts)

Roval Pick

William Byron ($8,600 DK, $7,700 FD)

Byron is starting on the pole and anything less than a dominant victory will pretty much guarantee that he doesn't reach value. He looked fast in practice but even if he leads 25 laps and finishes 5th, that is only good for 41.25 DK points...also known as a Ryan Newman 13th place finish. After the Saturday practices, Bowman makes the easiest fade call in the field but Byron is a close second.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Bank of America Roval 400 Cheatsheet and find me on Twitter. Good Luck!

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