Written by @joejets19

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NASCAR Federated Auto Parts 400 🏁

NASCAR is treating us with back-to-back night races as they make their second trip of the season to Richmond Raceway in Richmond, VA for the Federated Auto Parts 400. This will be the final Saturday race of the season and things are set up for it to be a race we will not want to miss. Richmond is a 0.75 mile. flat, d-shaped oval that will allow for high speeds, rubbing and racing. This is an impound race so the starting lineup will not be official until inspection is complete (about 3:30 pm Saturday). As always follow along on twitter or chat for any breaking news and changes from the newsletter.

Last race’s winning lineups:

Perfect Lineup: Blaney, Ty Dillon, Elliott, Lajoie, Logano, Truex Jr 378.50 DK pts.

$100K First Gear: Blaney, Ty Dillon, Elliott, Lajoie, Logano, Truex Jr 378.50 DK pts.. Min cash: 285.50 DK Pts

$50K Chrome Horn: Blaney, Ty Dillon, Elliott, Lajoie, Logano, Truex Jr 378.50 DK pts. Min cash: 281.50 DK Pts

On to Richmond!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points = 0.25 points per lap led. This week, 400 laps will be run and 100 points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.5 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 360 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 180 possible points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗️

***This is an impound race so the lineup will not be official until inspection is complete Saturday afternoon. Inspection starts at 1:30 pm (and should end around 3:30 pm) and I will try to update everyone via chat and Twitter about how things are progressing. Make sure to follow along and help each-other out. If a driver fails inspection, their qualifying time will be disallowed and they will be moved to the rear of the field for real life and DFS purposes (they will be scored from the rear of the field). This newsletter is based off of the unofficial starting lineup and the driver recommendations are subject to change as inspection progresses. As always, I will be in chat to answer any questions and provide any updates.***

Four hundred laps is a ton of laps and there will be a 280 dominator points up for grabs on Saturday night. As of right now, the field is incredibly front loaded and there will be a bunch of fast cars trying to get out front and lead. Traditionally, we see two to three drivers lead more than 100 laps, and both typically end up in the perfect lineup, except for the Spring race this season where only one of the three lap leaders finished well enough to land in the perfect lineup. In recent history the driver starting on the pole has not had a ton of success leading laps, but long term there has been a significant advantage to starting first. Almost all of the drivers that led more than 90 laps in the last 5 races have started in the top 11, so we are going to want to focus on drivers that start in that range.

For place differential drivers, we are going to want two to three drivers that can finish in the top 15 and pick up more than 8 places. Finally, we are going to want one cheap driver than can help us fit in our dominators.

A small note about the projected finish column in the cheatsheet, the model I am publishing this week does not take starting position into account so it would not change if a driver fails inspection. Ideally, it should help us quickly adapt to any lineup changes and build lineups before lock.

Stage 1: 100 laps, Stage 2: 100 laps, Stage 3: 200 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Las Vegas Review:

• Brad Keselowski (59.5 DK pts)

• Joey Logano (89.75DK pts)

Richmond Picks:

Joey Logano ($10,200 DK, $13,000 FD)

Logano had a terrible qualifying run and is now slated to start 28th, which is great for DFS purposes. Everyone will be looking up front for dominators but the first thing we are going to want to do is secure our floor, and that is where Logano comes in. In the last five races here he has an average finish of 4.6 and posted the second best single lap time in first practice along with the eighth best 10 lap average in second practice. He has a good car and should be a safe bet for a top 10 finish, which gives him a 52 point floor. While dominating drivers could put up scores north of 100 points, there will only be one or two of those this race. So if we pick wrong, we will get crushed. Logano provides us with some lineup stability at a slight discount to the highest priced drivers.

Ryan Newman ($8,000 DK, $7,500 FD)

When this part of the season rolls around, I try to focus on playoff drivers who aren't in a good spot. Newman is starting 19th and has shows some speed on Friday with top 10 single lap speeds in both practices and the third best 10 lap average in second practice. His average finish here in the last 5 races is 14.6 but that includes three top 10 finishes. I believe he will be a great pivot off of Byron who is $200 more on DK and starts 25th. Even if they both pick up 10 spots by the end of the race, Newman will score much better due to his better finishing position.

Tournament Targets

Las Vegas Review:

• Kevin Harvick (66.25 DK pts)

• Bubba Wallace (29.00 DK pts)

• Erik Jones (4.00 DK pts)

Richmond Picks:

Martin Truex Jr ($11,100 DK , $13,500 FD)

Truex is one of the many options that we have starting in the top 11 but no one quite has the history he does. Truex has led more than 121 laps in five of the last 6 races here but only has one top 10 finish. He had the best single lap time in second practice, the sixth best 10 lap average and the second best 30 lap average. My models have pointed to five drivers that have a chance to win this race (Truex, Kes, Elliott, Bowyer, Kyle Busch) and while Truex has not shown the best ability to finish well, I think he has the best chance to be a major dominator.

Ty Dillon ($6,200 DK , $5,500 FD)

Ty Dillon has consistently finished between 20-28 in each one of his Cup races at Richmond, which works for me considering he is starting 31st. He is on a bit of a hot streak with five straight top 20 finishes and that should be enough to get him in the perfect lineup. He will have a faster car than about five drivers ahead of him so he will need strategy and skill to pick up the rest of the spots.

Daniel Hemric ($6,100 DK , $4,500 FD)

Who doesn't like a stroll down #narrativestreet? Hemric was dropped for next season so now he is racing for a contract. When news broke about DiBenedetto a couple of weeks ago, he went out and ran the race of his life...can lightning strike again? Well I'm willing to bet my risky pick of the week on it because Hemric has not finished well at Richmond but it seems like he has himself a fast car this weekend. He posted the 15th and 3rd fastest single lap times on Friday and had a top 15 ten lap average in first practice. He has had some rookie struggles but most of the rookies have and I think he can improve on his 19th place finish in April.

Bargain Bin

Las Vegas Review

• JJ Yeley (16.5 DK pts)

Richmond Pick

David Ragan ($5,300 DK , $4,000 FD)

Ragan is ridiculously cheap compared to Lajoie/Chastain/Tifft but has a marginally better car. He is starting 27th and has an average finish of 26th in the last 5 races here but does have a 19th place finish to his name, so he has a higher ceiling than most drivers in this range.

Other Drivers To Consider

Las Vegas Review

• Chris Buescher (36.75 DK pts)

• Matt DiBenedetto (30.25 DK)

• Alex Bowman (52.50 DK pts)

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Richmond that have a chance to make some noise, in no particular order:

Paul Menard ($6,900 DK, $6,700 FD)

Kyle Busch ($12,000 DK, $14,500 FD)

Kyle Larson ($9,600 DK, $11,800 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Las Vegas Review

• Kyle Busch (31.00 DK pts)

Richmond Pick

Clint Bowyer ($8,600 DK, $10,200 FD)

I mentioned that Bowyer was one of the few drivers in my pool of race winners this weekend but I think his chances of pulling that off is about 10%. His car was not impressive on Friday and he will be trying to pick up as many points as possible to make up from his poor performance last week. Unfortunately for us, a top 10 finish does not do us any good for DFS purposes. And if he doesn't lead any laps or win, he's not going to be in the perfect lineup.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download theFederated Auto Parts 400 Cheatsheet and find me on Twitter. Good Luck!

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