Written by @joejets19

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NASCAR South Point 400🏁

The playoffs start this Sunday as NASCAR makes their second trip of the season to Las Vegas Motor Speedway in Las Vegas, NV for the South Point 400. This will be a Sunday night race due to the excessive heat the driver (and fans) had to endure last year during the September race here. Vegas is a 1.5 mile tri-oval with variable banking. The standard package will be run here (low hp and aeroducts) and weather does not seem to be an issue (besides the heat).

Last race’s winning lineups:

Perfect Lineup: Ty Dillon, Wallace, Hamlin, Byron, Newman, Harvick 378.75 DK pts.

$100K First Gear: Ty Dillon, Wallace, Hamlin, Byron, Newman, Harvick 378.75 DK pts. Min cash: 252.25 DK Pts

$40K Chrome Horn:Ty Dillon, Wallace, Hamlin, Byron, Newman, Harvick 378.75 DK pts. Min cash: 241.00 DK Pts

On to Vegas!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points = 0.25 points per lap led. This week, 267 laps will be run and 66.75 points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.5 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 235laps should run under the green flag for a total of 117.5 possible points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗️

Trying to nail dominators at Las Vegas can be tricky. There have been races where one driver has completely dominated and other races where laps led were spread out. I think this race will mimic the March race where there will be two drivers that soak up about 65% of the laps led and then the rest will be spread out. Historically, the major dominator(s) has started in the top 10, so that is where we want to be focussing out attention. This week will be very interesting because of all of the place differential options.

Speaking of place differential options, we will want three to four drivers starting 11-30 to round out our lineups. Only one driver starting worse than 30th made it into the perfect lineup and they needed a ton of help to get there. The place differential drivers do not need to make huge moves this week but they do need to finish well enough to pay off their salary (aka more expensive drivers need to move more/finish better than less expensive drivers).

Overall, we want two drivers starting in the top 10 that we think can lead laps and then four drivers starting 11-30 that we think can reach value but don't absolutely need to crush.

Stage 1: 80 laps, Stage 2: 80 laps, Stage 3: 107 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Indy Review:

• Kyle Busch (-21.5 DK pts)

• Paul Menard (26.25 DK pts)

Las Vegas Picks:

Brad Keselowski ($9,500 DK, $13,000 FD)

I have mentioned a few times in the past few weeks that I have cash games in mind with these first two picks and I want to focus on place differential drivers this week and then see which dominators fit. Keselowski is starting 18th but had a rocket ship in practice. He also has an average finish of 3.5 in the last four races here and has an average finish of 11 at similar tracks this year. He offers major savings from some of the other studs but also starts a little further forward. So he may be overlooked, especially in cash.

Joey Logano ($9,700 DK, $12,500 FD)

I will be very honest, I had to look hard to decide who I liked more, Logano or Blaney. They are starting 22 and 23rd respectively and are sandwiched in between Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr. This will be a very heavily owned part of the field but I think Logano has a higher floor and ceiling than Blaney, so he is worth the extra $1000. But he has a similar ceiling as Truex and Busch, so I would prefer to save money and try to fit in another stud. Logano practiced very well in second practice and has a top 10 average finish here and at similar tracks.

Tournament Targets

Indy Review:

• Chris Buescher (30.00 DK pts)

• Ryan Newman (50.00 DK pts)

• Denny Hamln (67.50 DK pts)

Las Vegas Picks:

Kevin Harvick ($10,300 DK , $14,000 FD)

Harvick has made me a nice amount of money over the years but this season has not been as automatic as I would like. I don't have any concerns about his ability to get past Suarez but if he can't pick off Bowyer then he's going to be in for a long night. Looking at the top 10, I think he has the best chance to dominate because I am not impressed by Bowyer or the cars starting 6-13th. If he can get up front early it will take a long while until someone challenges him for the lead.

Bubba Wallace ($6,600 DK , $5,500 FD)

We are starving for low end value this weekend and Wallace is our best chance at something salvageable. He is coming off of the best race of his career and is following it up by starting 31st. I am not incredibly confident in him (ever) but with everyone in his price range starting way further forward, he is pretty much the only viable option.

Erik Jones ($9,100 DK , $10,400 FD)

I just spent a ton of time breaking down the Kyle Busch/Logano/Blaney/Truex Jr decision tree but Erik Jones is starting further back than them all and is only $400 more than Blaney. Sounds like a slam dunk right? Not quite. He lands himself in my risky pick slot because he looooooooooooves to crash into things (I noticed when I was looking at the playoff drivers that he has driven the fewest laps of any playoff driver this year). He does not have the same ceiling as Logano/Busch/Truex but it's close and he actually might have a lower floor than Blaney, so he is the definition of a boom or bust play. But if he threads the needle, he can easily land in the perfect lineup.

Bargain Bin

Indy Review

• Parker Kligerman (4.00 DK pts)

Las Vegas Pick

JJ Yeley ($5,500 DK)

Can he catch lightning in the bottle twice? Probably not, but he is one of the only cars in this range that practiced better than they qualified and that's just about the need to differentiate yourself in this range. Overall, I will probably avoid this range if I can.

Other Drivers To Consider

Indy Review

• Brad Keselowski (-26.00 DK pts)

• William Byron (66.25 DK)

• Daniel Suarez (42.00 DK pts)

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Las Vegas that have a chance to make some noise, in no particular order:

Chris Buescher ($7,200 DK, $7,000 FD)

Matt DiBenedetto ($7,400 DK, $7,300 FD)

Alex Bowman ($8,000 DK, $9,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Indy Review

• Martin Truex Jr (18.00 DK pts): Busch lucked into a top 10 after everyone in front of him ran out of gas but he was running in the 10-15 range most of the race.

Las Vegas Pick

Kyle Busch ($11,500 DK, $15,000 FD)

The easy answer to this question this week is David Ragan/Michael McDowell but lets dig a little deeper. Kyle Busch is starting 20th so he has a nice amount of place differential points to rack up this week, but can he lead laps? His car wasn't overly impressive in practice (he had the best 10 lap average in second practice but it wasn't too much better than the next best drivers) and he has an average finish here of 8.5. He has a great chance to score 50-60 point but I don't think that will get into any winning lineup.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the South Point 400 Cheatsheet and find me on Twitter. Good Luck!

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