Written by @joejets19

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Welcome to the "I Think NASCAR is Trying to Put the Most Words in a Race Name Ever" 400. I am just glad they chopped off the "Presented by Florida Georgia Line" or I would have quit. Contests have been cut drastically this week due to the NFL season starting but make sure to fill these contests so they don't shrink too much more. The schedule is crazy this weekend with practice on Saturday and qualifying/race on Sunday so there is not going to be a ton of time to build lineups, but we will expand on that later. The race will take place in Indianapolis Motor Speedway in Indianaapolis ,IN. This is one of the more iconic raceways in the world and has a unique design, a 2.5 mile rectangular flat track with a large set of grandstands and bricks. The standard package will be run for the race (550 hp with aeroducts) and weather should not be too much of an issue but there is about a 25% chance of rain the entire day.

Last race’s winning lineups:

Perfect Lineup:  Kurt Busch, Menard, Wallace, Jones, Kyle Busch, DiBenedetto 423.75 DK pts.

On to Indy!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points = 0.25 points per lap led. This week, 160 laps will be run and 40 points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.5 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 123 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 61.5 possible points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗️

I am just going to go out there and say it, this may be one of the worst races of the season from a DFS perspective. NASCAR have a strangle hold on Sunday sports for the last 6 months and now they have been completely overshadowed but the NFL and it comes on a weekend where it is nearly impossible to do research with any certainty. I took a different approach with the cheatsheet this week by giving you as many stats as I could rather than the basic practice times/comment format. Over the past couple of weeks I have been trying my hand at producing my own finishing position model but have just been sharing the projections. Some of the things that go into those projections are avg running position/finishing position/ place diff at this week's track as well as the avg running position/finish position/place diff at similar tracks. I have provided all of those stats for you this week as an extra way to do some digging because there will be very little time to actually build lineups. I am also adding a ceiling/floor projection for this week only and here is where I got those from. While I have provided projections each week from one model, I have actually developed several different models, each weighing certain stats differently. Some of these models work independent of starting position so I am able to run them once practice is finished and the ceiling/floor range is the best and worst projection from those models.

While that rambled a bit, I wanted to take this weekend to point out some of the behind the scenes things that go into the article because there really isn't a ton of practice information to go off of this week. No car ran a 10 lap average in first practice and only 14 cars ran 10 lap averages in second practice. With no starting positions and limited practice times to base our research on, we have to get a little creative.

Now back to business, there will only be 160 laps runs on Sunday so dominator points will be limited. There has only been one driver to lead more than 100 laps in the last three races here, and he was in the perfect lineup. The last two races here saw 1) multiple drivers lead 20-40 laps and 2) one driver lead a bunch of laps but fell back and get outscored by much cheaper driver. The new package has put a major emphasis on clean air but also has helped with drafting and passing at times. I think the race will be more of a hybrid of the last two races with three drivers leading more than 35 laps but no major dominator per se.

Therefore, this will once again be a place differential race. Each of the last three perfect lineups have only had either one or two drivers starting in the top 11 that picked up some places and led a handful of laps. With the exception on 2017's wreck fest, the rest of the drivers in the lineup usually start in the top 25 but finish in the top 15. Every driver in the last three perfect lineups have finished in the top 15 (even the sub-$6000) so be very careful picking your driver pool, they need to have a chance to finish well if you want to take down a tournament.

Stage 1: 50 laps, Stage 2: 50 laps, Stage 3: 60 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Darlington Review:

• Kyle Busch (122.00 DK pts)

• Rickie Stenhouse Jr. (4.00 DK pts)

Indy Picks: 

Kyle Busch ($12,000 DK, $15,500 FD)

Remember when I mentioned there was only one driver who led more than 100 laps and there was one driver who led a ton of laps but didn't end up in the perfect lineup? Well, they were both Kyle Busch. And I don't see any reason why he can't do it again. He started on the pole both times when he dominated, so he makes an interesting fade choice depending on how qualifying shakes out. But if he is anywhere near the front he has a great chance to break the slate.

Paul Menard ($6,800 DK, $6,500 FD)

Menard has been sneaky good at Indy, appearing in two of the last 3 perfect lineups. His chart topping second practice makes me think he will garner some ownership but with an average Indy finish of 12th, with an average of 8 spots picked up here in the last three races, he is a cheap option that provides relative safety and some upside.

Tournament Targets

Darlington Review:

• Kyle Larson (74.00 DK pts)

• Ty Dillon (33.00 DK pts)

• Paul Menard (43.50 DK pts)

Indy Picks:

Chris Buescher ($7,100 DK , $7,300 FD)

Buescher is one of the few drivers with a top 16 average finish at Indy and similar tracks with a positive average place differential. What does that mean? He usually starts in the 20s and finishes better than 15... sign me up. His price is more than reasonable and he had the fourth best single lap speed in second practice.

Ryan Newman ($8,200 DK , $8,300 FD)

Newman is fighting for a playoff spot on Sunday. He is tied with Daniel Suarez on points but loses a tiebreaker so he either needs to pick up more points than Suarez during the race or finish 2nd. Newman has two top 10 finishes in the last two races here and an average finish of 14.3 at similar tracks this year. Suarez does have the better average finishing positions but has a negative average place differential which is a bad indicator for DFS value.

Denny Hamlin ($11,400 DK , $14,000 FD)

Hamlin wrecked his car on the cool down laps after second practice so he will be starting from the rear but will be scored from wherever he qualifies from Sunday morning. We have seen many times this year that a car starting in the rear can get up front pretty quickly and its almost like the momentum carries him into the top 5. This is purely a leverage play and the best case scenario will be a 15-20 qualifying position so he will be able to pay off his salary by place differential.

Bargain Bin

Darlington Review

• David Ragan (20.00 DK pts)

Indy Pick

Parker Kligerman ($5,300 DK, $3,000 FD)

Kligerman has never run a Cup race at Indy and has not run any similar tracks this season. I am basing this pick solely on ownership and the fact that he had some speed in his car during second practice. Kligerman is priced in the bargain bin but isn't one of the names we see day in and day out so he can go overlooked.

Other Drivers To Consider

Darlington Review

• Erik Jones (88.75 DK pts)

• Ryan Newman (22.00 DK)

• Martin Truex Jr (47.50 DK pts)

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Indy that have a chance to make some noise, in no particular order:

Brad Keseloski ($9,800 DK, $13,300 FD)

William Byron ($7,800 DK, $8,600 FD)

Daniel Suarez ($7,500 DK, $7,900 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Darlington Review

• Aric Almirola (40.00 DK pts): Busch lucked into a top 10 after everyone in front of him ran out of gas but he was running in the 10-15 range most of the race.

Indy Pick

Martin Treux Jr ($10,700 DK, $12,500 FD)

Truex had car trouble in each of the last two races here and while I don't expect him to go 3/3, he hasn't impressed here in his career. He has three top 10 finishes in fourteen career races and has an average finish of 10th at similar tracks this season. Truex is very expensive and would have to crash in qualifying to be on my radar.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat! 

Be sure to download the Big Machine Vodka 400 at the Brickyard CheatSheet and find me on Twitter. Good Luck!

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