Written by @joejets19

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NASCAR Bojangles' Southern 500🏁

Hope everyone enjoyed their week off while summer winds down and you're enjoying your Labor Day weekend. This is the last Sunday race before the NFL season and the prize pools are about to plummet so lets see if we can get some big winners while there is still some money to be made. This week NASCAR is making their yearly trip to Darlington Raceway in Darlington, SC for the Bojangles' Southern 500. Darlington is a 1.366 mile steeply banked oval track that is known to push drivers to their limits. The drivers will be running the low HP, high downforce package featured in the cookie cutter 1.5 mile tracks. This is an impound race but they did inspection before qualifying so there should not be too much race day craziness because the starting lineup is official.

Last race’s winning lineups:

Perfect Lineup:  Larson, Hamlin, Hemric, Keselowski, DiBenedetto, Wallace 424.25 DK pts.

On to Darlington!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points = 0.25 points per lap led. This week, 367 laps will be run and 125 points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.5 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 330 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 165 possible points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗️

There will be 367 laps run on Sunday night so dominators are going to be a must. Two of the last three races have had one major dominator leading more than 200 laps and one race had two drivers that led more than 100 laps. All four of those drivers started in the top 9, and three of those drivers started in the top 4, so we are going to be looking to roster two drivers starting in the top 10 that we think can dominate.

The rest of the lineup should be filled out with two other drivers starting in the top 20 that can finish in the top 10 and then two other drivers starting 20th or worse that can pick up at least 10 spots.

On a side note, I am again trying my hand at finishing position projections. They will be included in the cheatsheet as a reference but have no connection to LineStar's optimizer or projections. As always, if you have any questions feel free to ask in chat.

Stage 1: 100 laps, Stage 2: 100 laps, Stage 3: 167 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Bristol Review:

• Jimmie Johnson (37.50 DK pts): Thought he had a higher upside but only picked up 11 spots.

• Kyle Busch (90.50 DK pts): Started 31st, finished 4th and even led 30 laps.

Darlington Picks:

Kyle Busch ($11,900 DK, $15,000 FD)

Kyle Busch had engine issues in qualifying and will be scored from 33rd Sunday night. He will have to start from the rear but should have no problem making his way into the top 10. Leading laps will be a stretch so he may be more of a cash game play but he has a chance to pay off his crazy salary with place differential alone.

Rickie Stenhouse Jr. ($6,700 DK, $7,000 FD)

I like to think of the foundational targets as cash game picks and the thought of rostering Stenhouse in cash gives me the heebie-geebies but he makes a good case for himself this weekend. Stenhouse starts 21st, but turned in the 13th and 1st fastest single lap averages on Friday. He has run well at similar tracks this season with an average finish of 17.5 but average running position of 14.8. If he stays clean (which is always a big if with Wrecky), he will be a high floor, high ceiling driver for the price.

Tournament Targets

Bristol Review:

• Denny Hamlin (83.75 DK pts)

• Ryan Blaney (46.00 DK pts)

• Matt DiBenedetto (86.75 DK pts)

Darlington Picks:

Kyle Larson ($10,600 DK , $11,500 FD)

My two favorite dominators for the weekend are Brad Keselowski and Kyle Larson. Kes is $1,000 cheaper and starts 2nd but has a slightly slower car than Larson going into Sunday. Larson has better single lap times in both practices and a better 10 lap average in the second practice. He also has a better average finishing position and average running position in the last 3 races at Darlington but Kes has a better history at similar tracks this year. Overall, both will be fine plays, but I think I will try to find the money to fit Larson in.

Ty Dillon ($6,300 DK , $6,000 FD)

For some reason Ty Dillon runs great here with a 21st and 13th place finish to his name. He has also been sneaky good this season at similar tracks, with an average finish of 20th. He did not impress during practice but does not have to do too much to pay of his price.

Paul Menard ($6,900 DK , $6,800 FD)

There are a ton of drivers that qualified right around where they practiced and where their average finishes have been, so this is going to be a very tricky slate. Menard has been another sneaky driver that has an average finish of 13th at similar tracks. He is not a typical boom or bust pick that I aim for in this spot but more of a boom or blah type of driver.

Bargain Bin

Bristol Review

• Landon Cassill (26.5 DK pts)

Darlington Pick

David Ragain ($5,500 DK, $4,000 FD)

Ragan is probably one of the riskiest drivers in this range due to him starting 26th but he has one of the best cars in this range and the highest ceiling.

Other Drivers To Consider

Michigan Review

• Clint Bowyer (61.00 DK pts)

• Paul Menard (29.00 DK)

• Chris Buescher (41.00 DK pts)

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Darlington that have a chance to make some noise, in no particular order:

Erik Jones ($8,700 DK, $10,200 FD)

Ryan Newman ($8,300 DK, $8,400 FD)

Martin Truex Jrs ($10,200 DK, $12,500 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Bristol Review

• Aric Almirola (-7.50 DK pts): Busch lucked into a top 10 after everyone in front of him ran out of gas but he was running in the 10-15 range most of the race.

Darlington Pick

Aric Almirola ($7,800 DK, $8,800 FD)

I am doubling down on my Almirola fade this week but this time he will be very chalky. He will be starting in the rear due to a car change because he caught the wall in practice but only qualified 30th so he won't be losing too many spots. He has had negative place differential in 6 of the last 7 races here but doesn't normally start this far back. He will most likely pick up spots and if he stays out of trouble he could put up a big score. But I think its more likely that he finishes in the 20s and is a disappointment

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Bojangles' Southern 500 CheatSheet and find me on Twitter. Good Luck!

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