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LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - Iowa Corn 350

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS, 2023(x3) and 2024 FWRC qualifier @joejets19

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Iowa Corn 350🏁

Rain and restarts were the story at the end of last week’s race at Indy. Weather strategy, fuel strategy, and a touch of luck got Bubba Wallace to kiss the bricks. This weekend, the NASCAR Cup Series travels to Iowa Speedway in Newton, IA, for the Iowa Corn 350. The track is a unique 0.875-mile, relatively flat, D-shaped oval. It is shorter than the 1-mile tracks at Phoenix and Dover and flatter than Richmond. We have last year’s race to base some of our info on, but I would prefer a bigger sample size to get a better feel.

For the first time in weeks, it looks like Mother Nature is going to give us a break. A 10% chance of rain for this race means we should be able to complete it without any issues.

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 350 laps will be run this week, and 87.5 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 300 laps should run under the green flag for 135 possible DK points)

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

1) There will be dominators. Last year, the front row led a combined 281 laps out of 350. Larson ran into trouble, but Blaney got the job done. The driver starting third (Josh Berry) added another 32 laps led. The starting position is very important, and we may want to roster two top-5 drivers to try to capture as many laps led as possible.

2) Fast cars can move. Dominators will most likely come from the front, but passing will be difficult at this shorter track. One theme we can hope that carries over from last season is that fast cars can make their way through the field. Cars with good single-lap speeds in practice the previous year were able to pick up spots during the race.

3) The basement is open on Sunday. Pricing is spread out this weekend, and I can envision a scenario where a basement driver creates the perfect lineup. We may only need a top 20 finish to make the perfect lineup this weekend, depending on how the dominators shake out. In your one dominator lineup, you can probably skip the basement.

Stage 1: 70 Laps

Stage 2: 140 Laps

Stage 3: 140 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Kyle Busch ($8,200 DK, $8,000 FD): If Busch was about $500 less he would be a slam dunk for both cash and tournaments. He is starting last, a spot where Austin Dillon made the perfect lineup from last year. Busch was decent in practice, but he is prone to problems this year, which makes him fine for cash games, but I seriously worry about his tournament usefulness.

Chris Buescher ($8,700 DK, $9,000 FD): Buescher starts 27th on Sunday, but he has consistently proven to be a top 10 driver at short tracks. He had decent speed in practice and has excelled at correlated tracks. I love Buescher’s top 10 potential on Sunday.

Tyler Reddick ($9,500 DK, $10,500 FD): Reddick is the most expensive of this bunch and is the most tournament-y of these cash game picks. He started 22nd but ran the 6th-best single lap speed in practice. He has a top 10 average finish at correlated tracks, and I think he can find himself in the top 5. His price and starting position may make it difficult to fit him in cash games, but he is a solid option for one dominator builds.

Tournament Targets

Kyle Larson ($10,500 DK, $13,00 FD): My model projects Larson to lead the most significant percentage of laps, which doesn’t quite jive with his 29th place finish position, but here we are. He is starting in the top 3 and has the best car in the field, along with his teammate, William Byron. Larson is more boom or bust than I would prefer, but he is one of the few drivers in the field that can run away with a race if he gets out front.

Alex Bowman ($7,100 DK, $7,800 FD): Bowman is my model’s pick to win the race, and I would be remiss to pass up that opportunity. While I think the race will be won from the top 5, Bowman is still an intriguing play from his 16th-place starting position. He has a top-7 car and ran well here last season. Considering his price, there aren’t many better values this weekend than Bowman.

Christopher Bell ($10,200 DK, $13,500 FD): Bell ran the fastest single lap speed but fell off over 10 laps. He qualified right behind Bowman at 17th and is significantly more expensive, but I can see Bell rolling into the top 5 before meeting real resistance. Christopher will need a little luck to lead laps, but if he gets up front, he will be hard to pass.

Ross Chastain ($8,500 DK, $8,500 FD): Chastain starts 28th, and his practice times worry me. While reviewing last year’s race and correlated tracks, it appears that Ross is a top 12 driver, but he may only have a top 20 car. If he can find speed on Sunday, I can see Chastain crushing value, but I still think he is more of a tournament option than a cash play.

Bargain Basement

Ty Dillon ($5,000 DK, $3,200 FD)

This is a real old-school punt. Ty Dillon starts 32nd on Sunday and might have a top-25 car. We are going to need him to have a top 20 finish if there’s any chance he makes the perfect lineup. Dillon is infinitely more useful in cash than tournaments, but if this turns into a two-dominator race, he does have a path to usefulness.

Other Drivers to Consider

Here are three more drivers I like in Iowa that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

William Byron ($10,000 DK, $12,000 FD)

Ricky Stenhouse Jr ($5,700 DK, $4,000 FD)

Daniel Suarez ($6,800 DK, $6,200 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Austin Cindric ($6,900 DK, $6,500 FD)

Cindric will surprise us once or twice a year with an out-of-character good race, but overall, he finds problems weekly. Austin starts 4th, and all indications are that he will fall out of the top 10 quickly. I wouldn’t be surprised if he falls out of the top 20 by the end of the race.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 15-50 (-25.65 u)

2024 results: 28-40 (2.2 u)

2025 results: 17-25 (3.9 u)

These drivers finished 3rd and 4th at Iowa last year, respectively. Elliott starts 8th on Sunday while Bell starts way back in 17th. While Bell had the best single lap speed in practice, Elliott was much faster on the long run. Bell may be the better DFS play, but I like Elliott to have the better finish.

This will put our theory that practice matters for passing but not for dominating to the test. Cindric had a top-12 car in practice, but has had terrible results at correlated tracks. In contrast, Berry practiced in the 30s but has achieved great finishes at correlated tracks. Neither are DFS plays and I think the Berry call may be the riskier of the two but his car was so bad in practice I cannot trust that he will be able to hold on to his starting position.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-4 (2.85 u)

2024 Results: 11-15 (+11.45 u)

2025 Results: 5-8 (-0.59 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

For additional stats, check out the Iowa Corn 350 Cheatsheet

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