LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - Iowa Corn 350

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS, 2023(x3) and 2024 FWRC qualifier @joejets19

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Iowa Corn 350🏁

Last week’s race at Sonoma may have been one of the wildest races I have ever seen at a road course. What started out as a massive wreck fest ended on a prolonged green flag run where pit strategy, tire wear, and good old-fashioned payback added to last lap drama. Personally, I benefited from the last lap hijinx, punching my ticket to the FRWC with a lineup composed of only drivers featured in last week’s Pitstop. This weekend, we are looking to continue our hot run when the NASCAR Cup Series makes its inaugural trip to Iowa Speedway in Newton, IA, for the Iowa Corn 350. The track is 0.875 miles, flat, asphalt, D-shaped oval. While this is the first Cup Series event at this track, The ARCA, Truck, Xfinity, and Indycar series have been running here for years. The lack of track specific data will make this an interesting week for everyone, I will be relying heavily on similar track (presumably Phoenix, Loudon and Richmond) and practice data. If you are risk averse, playing a smaller volume than normal may be the best strategy this weekend. If taking chances is more your style, load up this weekend because where there is uncertainty, there is opportunity.

The weather in Iowa looks promising this Sunday. Rain overnight should taper off in the early morning and mid 90s temperatures should get the track ready for a fun night of racing.

As always I want to wish all of the fathers reading a Happy Father’s Day. NASCAR gave us a gift this year with an night race (we know how I feel about racing under the lights) and I hope everyone can enjoy a nice day with their family and then an even better evening of winning.

_{On to Iowa!}

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 350 laps will be run this week, and 75 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 300 laps should run under the green flag for 135 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

I mentioned earlier that this is the first race the NASCAR Cup Series has run in Iowa, so there is zero historical data on which to base my lineup construction suggestions. We can approach the race as a typical short flat track, which is difficult to pass for the lead but relatively easy enough to move throughout the field. 350 laps will be run on Sunday, so we know dominators will play a major factor, but the quantity and longevity of each dominator is the question. My gut tells me that there will be two significant dominators, one starting in the front row. The second dominator could go as far back as the 15th. I expect the first dominator to lead the first stage and into the second stage, once pit stops come into play in the second stage the field could be jumbled enough to let the second dominator emerge. Overall, I think rostering two drivers starting in the top 10 and possibly three drivers starting in the top 15 may be the optimal way to capture as many dominator points as possible this weekend.

The major drawback of short tracks in the last two seasons is the difficulty passing. In general, fast cars can make their way through the field but then they stall out once they reach the top 10. This trend has two major implications: 1) drivers that start up front can stay up front, and 2) good drivers starting in the way back can get close to the front but probably won’t lead. This leaves a massive no man’s land in the middle where drivers don’t have dominator potential or enough place differential to make a difference. With so many good high-priced options this weekend, there will be many different ways to attack this slate.

The bargain basement is almost non-existent this weekend but could provide much needed salary relief. On the very short tracks (Martinsville or Bristol) a basement double dip has worked but those races have 150 more laps. I can safely assume one basement driver will make the perfect lineup but there is an exceedingly small number of drivers to choose so pick carefully.

Stage 1: 70 Laps

Stage 2: 140 Laps

Stage 3: 140 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Martin Truex Jr ($9,500 DK, $12,000 FD)

The first name that jumps right off the screen at me this weekend is Martin Truex Jr. He starts 31st on Sunday and struggled in practice/qualifying over the weekend, but that doesn’t worry me because I don’t need him to dominate. Truex is a phenomenal short-track driver with an average finish of 9.14 at similar tracks over the last two seasons and the master of races that start during the day and finish in the evening. I wouldn’t be surprised if Truex’s poor practice speed is due to them dialing the car into the evening conditions during a day time practice. It doesn’t matter how well the car runs in the sun when the race is going to end under the lights, and I expect Martin to be battling for the lead when the checkered flag is waving.

Erik Jones ($6,400 DK, $5,200 FD)

Jones made a bunch of people a ton of money last week, and sadly, I missed the boat on him. This could very well be a case of too little too late, but from his 32nd starting position, it would be very hard for Jones to do more harm than good for our cash lineups. Erik has an average finish of 22nd at similar tracks over the last two seasons, including a 14th place finish at Richmond this year. This isn’t exactly a ringing endorsement of Jones but in a race full of uncertainty sometimes its ’s best to play a safe option.

Tournament Targets

Kyle Larson ($11,000 DK, $13,000 FD)

I am not overthinking this one. Larson is in incredible form and is starting on the pole this Sunday. Passing for the lead is hard, and I expect Larson to be in the lead from lap 1. During practice, Kyle struggled a touch on the short run, but he posted the second-best 20-lap average, which gives me confidence in his ability to lead at least the entire first stage. While I wholeheartedly expect there to be multiple dominators on Sunday, there is always an outside chance that a driver just completely runs away with the race, and Larson is in the ideal position to be that driver.

Joey Logano ($9,300 DK, $11,000 FD)

This is entirely a gut play, but over the last couple of seasons, Logano always seemed to find his way to the front of the pack at new tracks. Joey starts 11th on Sunday, so he more or less needs to win or dominate to make the perfect lineup. It's a daunting task, but it's one he can certainly live up to. Logano finished in the top 5 in four of the last seven races at similar tracks over the last two seasons, including a second-place finish at Richmond this season. Joey showed top-10 speed over the long run in practice this weekend but will need some help making it to the front. There are 350 laps for Logano to make up 10 spots, and I think there’s a chance he can pull off the shocker.

Bargain Basement

Ricky Stenhouse Jr ($6,000 DK, $4,000 FD)

Stenhouse is the upper limit of the bargain basement and has the highest upside of the entire range this weekend. Starting 35th, Ricky has literally nowhere to go but forward and I am expecting him to crack the top 25 with ease. If he can make his way into the top 20, we are talking perfect lineup potential.

Other Drivers to Consider

Here are three more drivers I like in Iowa that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Denny Hamlin ($10,000 DK, $13,500 FD)

Noah Gragson ($6,900 DK, $6,500 FD)

Michael McDowell ($7,200 DK, $6,200 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Josh Berry ($7,800 DK, $7,000 FD)

There was no real driver who qualified over his head except Berry. Josh starts third on Sunday and will be hard pressed to finish in the top 10. Berry has had some success at similar tracks, but he has two top-10 finishes this entire season, and he needed to drive through the field to accomplish those. There is nowhere to go but backwards for him this race.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 15-50 (-25.65 u)

2024 results: 12-18 (-2.35 u)

The Toyotas have had a ton of speed at short tracks this season, and this is a killer group, but I love the intangibles Truex brings to the table this weekend. After a disaster finish at Sonoma, Martin will want to bounce back in a big way, and a fantastic finish at Iowa would be the best way to do that.

When will Chris Buescher get any respect? He is starting 15th on Sunday (two spots ahead of Chastain) and comes in with a better average finish and average place differential at similar tracks over the last 2 seasons. In those seven similar races, Buescher holds a 6-1 H2H advantage.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-4 (2.85 u)

2024 Results: 7-8 (+7.9 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

For comments on every driver and additional stats, check out the Iowa Corn 350 cheatsheet

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