Written by @joejets19

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Instacart 500 🏁

NASCAR continues their west coast swing with the Instacart 500 at Phoenix Raceway in Avondale AZ. The track is a 1 mile, flat, tri-oval and will be revisited later this year for the championship race. The races here may not always be the most memorable but every year I chuckle that they measure the race in kilometers here, and only here, to get to the Instacart 500 instead of the Instacart 312. I can't believe I am even doing this but I checked the weather for Sunday and there shouldn't be any issues because, well, the track is in the middle of a desert. We have yet to see a big name driver run bring home a W (no disrespect to Michael McDowell), this may be the week we buck the trend.

On to Phoenix!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 312 laps will be run this and 78 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 270 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 121.5 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

Sunday's race will feature the most laps we have seen so far this young season, so you know what that means, dominators. We will typically see two drivers lead more than 90 laps at Phoenix, sometimes with both drivers leading more than 100 laps and other times with a more typical major/minor dominator split. Twelve of the last twelve drivers that led more than 100 laps at this track have started in the top 10, and in the four recent races, all seven of those drivers started in the top 4. Race results like that have forced some very unbalanced perfect lineups with two drivers starting in the top 4 and four drivers starting 40th or worse. We can probably stretch our dominator pool out a little further this weekend but we are going to have to be perfect with our dominator picks because lineups that miss will be dead in the water.

We will look to balance out the rest of our lineup with place differential drivers. We would love for them to be able to finish in the top 10 but we should focus on drivers that can pick up at least 6 spots or finish in the top 15. This leaves the door open for a bargain basement driver or two, as long as they can pick up at least 6 spots.

Stage 1: 75 laps, Stage 2: 115 laps, Stage 3: 122 laps

Competition Caution: Lap 30

Lineup Foundation Targets

Aric Almirola ($9,000 DK, $8,000 FD)

Almirola has been completely terrible this season but I love this as a get-right spot for him and all of Stewart-Haas Racing. Almirola starts 32nd on Sunday and carries a hefty price tag on DK but overall pricing is soft so he shouldn't be too hard to fit into a cash lineup. He has a top 9 finish in five of the last seven races here including two top 4s. He was also incredibly good at similar tracks last season with an average finishing position of 8.8. Almirola was not particularly fast here last fall but was able to turn that into a 13th place finish. I believe this is the week Almirola and his team turns the corner and I think he is a lock for a top 15, with top 10 upside.

Ryan Newman ($6,600 DK, $5,500 FD)

Newman is not the type of driver that is known for making big moves through the field, but one that makes every pass difficult. If we are looking for place differential drivers that can finish in the top 15 or pick up 6 spots, Newman is a very interesting option starting 19th. He has finished in the top 12 in three of the last five races here and even won in March of 2017. Newman is not a sexy pick by any stretch of the imagination but he does provide a cheap, safe floor with tournament winning upside.

Tournament Targets

Kyle Larson ($9,600 DK, $11,300 FD)

Kyle Larson has had one of the more consistent cars over the last two weeks and he is starting on the front row this Sunday. I feel like I have been seeing a lot of hype this week for Brad Keselowski, who is starting on the pole, and he is a fantastic play in his own right but I like the pivot to Larson in tournaments. Larson is $800 cheaper, has a much better average finish at Phoenix, and should be lower owned. Kes has the ability to run away with the win but only has two top 10 finishes in his last seven races here. Larson, on the other hand, hasn't shown the ability to dominate here yet but has four straight top 6 finishes. I intend to spread my dominator ownership around again this weekend but Larson will get the biggest share.

Bubba Wallace ($7,200 DK, $6,500 FD)

Wallace has not had the start to the season that he would like but is in a fantastic spot this weekend. He starts 25th on Sunday and has shown some real upside at Phoenix with a top 20 finish in three of five including two top 15s. Wallace had the 18th best green flag average here in November and an average running position of 20.6 at similar tracks last season which indicates that some of his poor finishes were due to bad luck and not a bad car. He will have a better car than almost everyone starting behind him on Sunday so all he needs to do is stay safe and pick up some spots along the way and he could be in contention for a top 15.

Kyle Busch ($10,800 DK, $11,700 FD)

The narrative is always "Kevin Harvick is the master of Phoenix" but I would make the argument that Kyle has been the better driver, especially over the last 10 races. What makes Busch so risky this weekend? Well, he is the fourth-highest priced driver on DK and starting 7th so he doesn't have the place differential potential to help pay off his salary. He is also the type of driver that benefits from the practice and since we are going into this race cold, he is at a slight disadvantage. He is also one of the many drivers that have started the season slowly but was able to pull a 3rd place finish out of a hat last Sunday which may be an indication that he is starting to come around. While Almirola was my "bet on talent" place differential driver of the week, it is hard to pass up the possible upside Busch provides considering he has led more than 100 laps in four of the last eight races here, including two wins and six top 3 finishes.

Bargain Basement

JJ Yeley ($5,200 DK, $3,000 FD)

The bargain basement has a decent amount of options this week, but I like Yeley as an overall value. This is one of the few non-superspeedway tracks where he offers some actual upside, with a top finish of 26th. He is starting 34th so I don't expect him to get anywhere near the top 15 but he has a chance to pick up 6 spots and that could land him in the perfect lineup.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Las Vegas that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Cole Custer ($6,700 DK, $7,300 FD)

Denny Hamlin ($9,900 DK, $13,000 FD)

Matt DiBenedetto ($8,500 DK, $7,700 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Kevin Harvick ($11,900 DK, $14,000 FD)

Fading Harvick at Phoenix may prove to be incredibly stupid but he is the highest priced driver on both sites and has a very low dominator potential. He is starting 18th but will need more than place differential to pay off his salary and I don't see him leading a significant chunk of laps on Sunday. I am very high on several of his teammates so watch this blow up in my face but Harvick is not a driver I have any faith in at this point during the season.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat! 

Be sure to download the Instacart 500 Cheatsheet and find me on Twitter Good Luck!

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