LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - Hollywood Casino 400

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS, 2023(x3) and 2024 FWRC qualifier @joejets19

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Hollywood Casino 400🏁

Last weekend, we may have witnessed one of the most dominating performances in the last decade by Kyle Larson. Since the inception of the next-generation car, very few races have only had one dominator, and when it does happen, it feels like Larson is the culprit. At this point, I think Larson has the highest weekly ceiling of any driver in the field by a long shot; when he has a race-winning car, he doesn’t mess up. That being said, he is locked into the next round of the playoffs, and eleven drivers are looking to punch their own ticket this weekend when the Cup Series travels to Kansas Speedway in Kansas City, KS, for the Hollywood Casino 400. The track is a cookie cutter 1.5 mile, moderately banked, asphalt tri-oval. The biggest story of Kansas recently is tire troubles, and hopefully, a random blow tire will not end a playoff driver’s season.

The weather could not be better for Sunday’s race. Temperatures in the 80s with no chance of rain, there is no reason this race should have any weather delays.

_{On to Kansas!}

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 267 laps will be run this week, and 66.75 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 425 laps should run under the green flag for 99.9 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

As time passed, laps led have been more spread out at Kansas. Since 2022, there have only been two drivers with more than 100 laps led, and they both happened in the 2022 season. This Spring three drivers led between 53 and 71 laps. I would lean towards a major/minor dominator scenario where one driver leads around 100 laps, and the second driver leads closer to 70 laps. Over the last five races, a driver starting in the top 5 has been either the major or minor dominator in each race. The second dominator will not be the easiest to nail down, and they could start anywhere in the top 15. Four of the last five perfect lineups featured two top 10 drivers, and one lineup actually had three top 5 drivers. I would look to roster at least one top 5 driver and an additional driver that starts in the top 10 and has dominator potential.

Big moves are possible at Kansas, so I wouldn’t worry about front-loading lineups too much. After the two dominators, we will need three place differential drivers that can finish in the top 15. This is a weird track because everything is sorta average, dominators don’t have to lead a massive amount of laps, a stage will be enough and place differential drivers don’t have to finish top 10, a top 15 will do. Ideally, two drivers leading 100+ laps and four drivers that finish in the top 10 with positive place differential is how we would love this race to play out, but I expect it to be more of a slog than that.

Basement drivers are a staple of Kansas's perfect lineups, and like everything else at this track, we don’t really need to expect too much out of them. A top 25 finish from a basement driver is perfectly acceptable as long as they have positive place differential.

Stage 1: 80 Laps

Stage 2: 85 Laps

Stage 3: 102 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Chase Elliott ($10,000 DK, $11,500 FD)

There is absolutely no reason to overthink this one. Elliott starts dead last on Sunday, and he won’t stay there long. Chase ran into problems in practice and needed to change his engine, but the track was big enough that he would not be in danger of going a lap down early. While Kansas may not be Elliott’s best track in the scheme of things, we cannot pass up his immense floor and considerable ceiling. If we have a bunch of leaders like we did in the Spring, there is a chance Elliott will be the highest-scoring driver if he just manages to finish in the top 10.

Brad Keselowski ($8,300 DK, $9,500 FD)

Keselowski burnt us good last weekend, but I won’t let that talk me off of his this Sunday. Brad starts 26th this weekend and is another driver with fantastic place differential potential. Keselowski is coming off of two straight top 11 finishes at Kansas with an average positive place differential of 14.5 in those two races. His single lap speed in practice wasn’t the best, but where he shined was the long run with top nine 10, 15, 20, 25, and 30 lap averages. Keselowski was eliminated from the playoffs in the first round, so now it is his chance to play spoiler as he races himself into the top 10, which would be more than enough to land himself in the perfect lineup.

Tournament Targets

Ty Gibbs ($9,200 DK, $7,500 FD)

While this may not be in the “risky play of the week” slot, this is a bold call to start our Tournament Target section. Gibbs qualified second and posted better practice times than teammate and front row-mate Christopher Bell in both the single laps speed and all long run segments. Clean air is king and that will provide Bell a significant advantage but if there is anything he loves, its ’s squandering the poll position at Kansas. Bell has started on the poll in three of the last five races at Kansas and led a combined 57 laps in those races. Gibbs is hungry for his first Cup win, and I expect it to happen this season. Ty has a terrible Kansas history and questionable correlated track history, which makes this call nearly nonsensical, but I expect him to go very low-owned, and if this play pays off, we will have massive leverage.

Ross Chastain ($7,800 DK, $8,000 FD)

To counteract the scorching hot first take of this section, we will roll out Ross Chastain. He started 20th on Sunday and had a lightning-quick car over one lap in practice, but his long run speed was middle of the road. Ross has an average finish of around 10 in five races here and has an average finish of 11th at similar tracks over the last two seasons. What really intrigues me is my model’s 8th place projected finishing position with a 90% chance of a top 10. Chastain is cheap enough that a top-10 finish will be enough for him to make the perfect lineup, and that might actually be his floor.

Bargain Basement

Todd Gilliland ($6,000 DK, $5,000 FD)

Everything about this range is brutal this weekend. Gilliland is relatively expensive for the range, but he starts in the 33rd and has a decent amount of place differential potential. Todd has never finished worse than 25th here, which is respectable, but we will need a finish of 22nd or better for him to have a possibility of making the perfect lineup.

Other Drivers to Consider

Here are three more drivers I like in Kansas that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Alex Bowman ($8,000 DK, $7,800 FD)

William Byron ($9,700 DK, $11,000 FD)

Michael McDowell ($7,000 DK, $6,500 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Kyle Busch ($8,800 DK, $9,000 FD)

Busch is still looking to keep his 20-year win streak alive, but I can’t trust him this weekend. Over the long run, Kyle’s car is not great, and starting 3rd, there are a ton of spots he could possibly lose. Busch has consecutive top-10 finishes, but that came with a negative place differential in one race and a massive move in the other. Long story short, I am rooting for Busch to get a win before the end of the season, but I can’t trust him in this slate.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 15-50 (-25.65 u)

2024 results: 23-31 (5.3 u)

Two non-playoff drivers racing for pride in this matchup. Kyle starts much further up but Bubba had a similar single lap speed in practice. My model projects Bubba to finish 16th with an average finish of 17.12 compared to Busch’s projection of 20th and average finishing of 19.21.

I am doubling down on Chastain this weekend and really like his chance of finishing in the top 10. He was fast in practice and has three top 10 finishes in his last 5 races here. I wish there was slightly more juice in this line but my model has him finishing in the top 10 in 90% of simulations so there is immense value in this number.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-4 (2.85 u)

2024 Results: 11-14 (+12.45 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

For comments on every driver and additional stats, check out the Hollywood Casino 400 cheatsheet

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