🔥Written by 2020 FBWC and 2021 KoS qualifier @joejets19

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Hollywood Casino 400 🏁

Last week's race saw more drivers hurt their championship chances than help as Larson laid out a complete beatdown on the field. This week's race is going to be hampered by weather, so we should all be on the lookout for that. I expect DK to be aggressive again with delaying their contest lock, and FD to completely ignore the situation at the track entirely. While this isn't the most exciting intro of the season, the Hollywood Casino 400 will take place at some point (hopefully Sunday) at Kansas Speedway in Kansas City, KS. The track is a 1.5 mile, progressively banked, tri-oval with very low tire wear. The track is incredibly similar to Texas so we can use a lot of the information from last week to help us for this race.

On to the Kansas!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 267 laps will be run this and 66.75 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 230 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 148.5 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

As we usually do at 1.5 mile tracks, we start our lineups with the dominator. Excluding 2020, we have seen the main dominator that leads 100+ laps and a minor dominator that leads between 60-90 laps in each of the last 9 races at Kansas. Races at this track are slightly strange for several reasons. Kansas rewards drivers that start well, with a driver starting in the top 3 leading at least 75 laps in 6 of the last 9 races here. It also allows fast cars to get up front and lead laps eventually too, with a dominator coming from as far back as 32nd. The third reason it is strange is the main dominator doesn't usually end up winning the race and he actually missed the perfect lineup in two of the last 9 races. I think the play this weekend will be a two dominator build, focused around one driver starting in the top 3.

Once we find our dominators, we need to decide how to round out our lineups. Five of the last eleven perfect lineups featured at least three drivers starting in the top 11 so a front loaded lineup is a viable option on Sunday. On the other hand two perfect lineups in the same time frame had only one top 11 driver. Since NASCAR used the metric qualifying system for this race, I expect the perfect lineup to be on the front-loaded side because all of the playoff drivers will start in the top 8 then the best cars from last week will be right behind them. We are looking for drivers that can finish in the top 18 with positive place differential, so the slower back markers will not be in consideration.

Stage 1: 80 laps, Stage 2: 80 laps, Stage 3: 107 laps

Competition Caution: Lap 25

Lineup Foundation Targets

Kyle Larson ($11,700 DK, $14,500 FD)

I am not getting cute this weekend in cash, play Larson and keep it moving. He is starting on the pole and seems to be head and shoulders over the competition on 1.5 mile tracks this season. Larson is 54 laps away from passing Jeff Gordan for the most laps led in a 36 race season and I realistically think Larson will do it in the first stage. Larson had the fastest green flag average speed in the Spring race at Kansas despite his poor finish and has been the fastest car at similar tracks this year. Everything sets up perfectly for Larson to put up a huge score on Sunday, let's just hope the weather holds up.

Chris Buescher ($6,300 DK, $6,700 FD)

Buescher's price is way too cheap for me not to consider him in cash on Sunday. Chris is starting 21st and has an average finish of 16.83 in his last six races here (which includes a DNF). He has been overall a solid driver this season with an average finish around 18 at similar tracks this season while also providing top 10 upside. I actually worry about Buescher's tournament upside because he would need a top 12 to really crush but I think he is a fine, safe cash play that can help you fit your dominators.

Tournament Targets

Denny Hamlin ($11,000 DK, $13,500 FD)

Hamlin is one of the few drivers that have been able to keep pace with Larson this season at 1.5 mile tracks, just without the wins to show for it. Starting 6th, Hamlin has a bit of a hole to dig himself out of if he wants to race for the championship and I expect him to give this race everything he has to avoid a do or die situation in Martinsville. Hamlin has two wins in the last seven races at Kansas, coming all the way up from 23rd to lead 153 laps and capture the checkered flag in the Fall 2019 race. Hamlin is not cheap and will be very hard to fit into any lineup with Larson so I picture him as more of a tournament pivot than a co-dominator.

Matt DiBenedetto ($6,800 DK, $8,000 FD)

DiBenedetto is another driver cheaper than he should be and I will be happy to take advantage of that this weekend. Starting 15th on Sunday, Matt is coming off of two top 12 finishes at Kansas and even led 12 laps here last Fall. He has been very good at similar tracks this season with an average finish of 12.5 and an average positive place differential of 2.25. Due to his depressed price, DiBenedetto only needs a top 12 to pay off his salary and if he manages to sneak into the top 10 he has a chance to make the perfect lineup.

Joey Logano ($8,700 DK, $9,800 FD)

I am going to try something a little different this week with the risky pick. Since I said I don't believe we can make a Hamlin/Larson lineup work this week, a nice tournament dominator could be Logano. He is starting 8th on Sunday and is already in a must-win situation for the playoffs. Logano won here last fall, but that was his only finish better than 15th in his last five races at Kansas. I would not consider Logano safe enough for cash but he can help you differentiate your Larson tournament lineups. The scenario that I envision Logano ending up in the perfect lineup in Sunday is as follows: Larson runs away with the race leading around 150 laps, Logano knows he must win so employs an alternate pit strategy which ends up being successful in the long run, Larson gets trapped behind Logano for the last 25 laps of the race and Logano sneaks a win out even though he doesn't have the best car in the field. That scenario is also in play for Keselowski, but I like the price/starting position/desperation factor more for Logano this weekend.

Bargain Basement

Ryan Preece ($5,700 DK, $5,000 FD)

Preece burned me again last week but now he is cheaper and starting 32nd...he can't possibly burn me again. Unless Preece runs into the wall I don't see how he loses any spots on Sunday and he will have better equipment than a handful of drivers starting ahead of him so he should be able to pick up a few spots. His salary is so low that he only needs to sneak up to 24th to pay it off, which I think is a fairly reasonable expectation.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Kansas that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Chase Elliott ($10,000 DK, $12,500 FD)

Ricky Stenhouse Jr ($7,000 DK, $5,800 FD)

Alex Bowman ($9,800 DK, $9,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Martin Truex Jr ($10,400 DK, $10,500 FD)

Truex is another driver in a must-win situation but his salary demands that he lead a significant amount of laps and win the race to pay it off....which I don't think is very likely. Truex has been fine here in recent years but doesn't have a finish better than 3rd in his last six races here. Over that same time period, he has led a combined 77 laps. Truex will be riding around the top 10 all day but I don't expect him to do enough to pay off his fairly high salary.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Hollywood Casino 400 cheatsheet and find me on Twitter Good Luck!