LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - Hollywood Casino 400

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS and 2023(x3) FWRC qualifier @joejets19

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Hollywood Casino 400🏁

The start to the NASCAR playoffs did not disappoint with a green flag marathon last weekend. Kyle Larson punched his ticket to the next round while several other drivers put themselves in near must win positions. The week, the Cup Series travels to Kansas Speedway in Kansas City, KS for the Hollywood Casino 400. The track is an unremarkable 1.5 mile, banked, tri-oval. While every race matters, this will be a breather race of sorts before elimination night next weekend at Bristol.

The weather forecast for Sunday is warm with clear skies until late in the evening. Barring any lengthy red flag stoppage. This race should go off without any weather issues.

_{On to Kansas!}

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 267 laps will be run this week, and 66.75 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 230 laps should run under the green flag for 103.5 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

We get a standard length cookie cutter track this weekend, so we should know how to attack these by now. NASCAR did a great job making these races more competitive with their new rules package but tire issues continue to throw a wrench into these races. Dominators are where we should start our lineup construction and I am fairly certain there will be one major dominator in this race. This driver generally starts in the top 5 and should be able to lead more than 100 laps. The presence (or lack thereof) of a secondary dominator is where things start to get a little tricky. Only one of the previous three races had a second driver that led more than 70 laps but that driver did not make the perfect lineup. While there should be at least one other driver that leads more than 10% of laps (>26), they need to finish well. Every driver that has led a significant number of laps in the last three races here have started in the top 10 so I think we should roster exactly two top 10 drivers with at least 1 of them starting in the top 5.

Our dominators will most likely come from the top 10 but that doesn’t mean drivers won’t make big moves at Kansas, they just won’t lead laps. We will need to roster 3 place differential drivers that we think can pick up at least 10 spots. Finishing position is nice but not a major consideration. It would be nice if we could roster all 6 drivers that finish in the top 10 but in reality, that may not be necessary. As long as a driver makes a big move (10+ spots), they can make the perfect lineup.

The bargain basement is open again this weekend but this drivers must also make big moves. They might not need to pick up 10 spots, they absolutely have to have top 20 potential. I know I said that finishing position wasn’t really a worry but a top 20 finish should be a reasonable floor for any driver in your lineup.

Stage 1: 80 Laps

Stage 2: 85 Laps

Stage 3: 102 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Kyle Busch ($9,600 DK, $11,500 FD)

There is no reason to overthink this, Busch starts 35th on Sunday and has nowhere to go but forward. His recent struggles here are worrisome, especially when paired with his troubles on Saturday but this is a fantastic opportunity for our cash lineups. We simply can not pass up a driver of Busch’s caliber starting at the rear of the field at a discount. Busch will need a top 15 finish to be useful in tournaments, which is right around his average finish at similar tracks this season. Kyle has been more accident prone than normal this season, but there is no way I can pass up on him in cash.

Ryan Preece ($6,100 DK, $4,500 FD)

This is not a sexy pick whatsoever, but Preece, starting 28th, has all the makings of a solid cash-value play. Ryan showed some speed in practice but nothing spectacular. Besides his price, the silver lining in this play is his average finish of 20.4 at similar tracks this season, with an average positive place differential of 9.4. A 20th place finish is what we will for Preece to hit value and that is close to my ceiling projection for him.

Tournament Targets

Kyle Larson ($10,500 DK, $13,000 FD)

Larson already has one win under his belt this round of the playoffs and he is looking to make it two races in a row from his 2nd place starting position on Sunday. Kyle has three top two finishes in his last four races here and has no problem leading laps. Larson was very fast in practice over the long run on Saturday, post top two 5, 10, 15 and 20 lap averages. Clean air is king at these tracks, and if he can get around Bell early there is a chance Larson runs away with this race.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr ($7,300 DK, $7,200 FD)

Stenhouse Jr has a love hate relationship with Kansas Speedway. He is about equally as likely to finish in the top 11 as he is to finish in the bottom 6 which is why he is a tournament only option on Sunday. In this price range, everyone will be looking at Ty Gibbs so I think Stenhouse is a high risk, high reward pivot. He ran top six 5 and 10 lap averages on Saturday as well as posting the 7th best single lap speed. Ricky can do a ton of damage to a lineup if he falters from his 16th place starting position but he also provides tournament winning upside if he hits his ceiling.

Bargain Basement

Justin Haley ($5,800 DK, $4,200 FD)

I know its another race where I love Haley as my basement pick up he really is one of the few cheap drivers that provides us upside each week. He will be starting 30th on Sunday and is coming off of two straight to 20 finishes here. His practice times weren’t very exciting but his average finish of 19.6 at similar tracks this season is exactly what we are looking for out of the basement at Kansas.

Other Drivers to Consider

Here are three more drivers I like at Kansas that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Kevin Harvick ($9,500 DK, $8,000 FD)

Ty Gibbs ($7,600 DK, $7,000 FD)

Daniel Suarez ($7,500 DK, $6,800 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Denny Hamlin ($11,000 DK, $14,000 FD)

Kansas is one of Hamlin’s best tracks and he will be quite popular but I don’t think he has what it takes to pay off his hefty salary from the 14th starting position. Dominators don’t generally come from outside of the top 10 here so I expect Hamlin to be shut out of the dominator pool meaning he will have to rely on place differential/pos place diff to make the perfect lineup. This fade could go horrifically for us but I see very few opportunities for Hamlin to hit value and there are an endless numbers of ways he could fail.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 12-35 (-12.75 u)

Elliott starts 4th this Sunday and while I didn’t write him up and don’t think he will be in contention for a win, I think he will be in the mix throughout the race. He seemed to run better over long runs and still has something to race for because of the owner’s championship.

I was winning last week’s top manufacturer bet for 80%+ of the race and then everything blew up. Larson is fast and should be in contention throughout the race. He also has teammate Chase Elliott near him to pick up the slack and who knows, Stenhouse coud surprise everyone with a win.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-4 (2.85 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

No poll this week, DK is seriously slacking with their betting options

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Hollywood Casino400 and find me on Twitter. Good Luck!