LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - Hollywood Casino 400

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS, 2023(x3) and 2024 FWRC qualifier @joejets19

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Hollywood Casino 400🏁

NASCAR could not have asked for a more entertaining race than last week’s at New Hampshire. Tires mattered; we had green flag passes for the lead, and there was a distinct difference between long-run and short-run speed. While Ryan Blaney punched his ticket to the next round of the playoffs, eleven drivers are still fighting for the seven remaining spots in round three as the Cup Series travels to Kansas Speedway in Kansas City, KS, for the Hollywood Casino 400. The track is a 1.5, variably banked tri-oval. While Kansas seems like a standard cookie-cutter track, it has produced some of the wildest results in recent history, and now we can throw in the new tire compound being introduced this weekend. We are sure to see fireworks on Sunday.

Mother Nature has not been kind to NASCAR over the last several years, and I think we're reaping the benefits of that bad karma this season, as we have another beautiful race day on Sunday. At 88 degrees and with a zero percent chance of rain, this race is expected to go off without any delays.

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 267 laps will be run this week, and 66.75 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 222 laps should run under the green flag for 99.9 possible DK points)

Finishing Position Points: The 40th-place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

1) There will definitely be a major dominator; a second dominator may emerge. Three of the last four races had one driver lead 99 or more laps, and all three of those drivers started on the front row. One of those drivers completely ran away with the race; the other two races had a secondary dominator that led for around 50 laps. The one outlier race saw three drivers lead between 50-70 laps, and one of those drivers started in the top 4. We are looking for one driver starting in the top 4 to be our primary dominator. We should hope that one of our place differential drivers ends up leading laps; the minor dominator can really start anywhere.

2) Big moves are possible; the entire field is in play. Fast cars can move from the 30s to the top 5 at Kansas, so there is no front-loading or back-loading. If possible, we aim for at least five of our drivers to finish in the top 10, so that should be the primary goal of our build. The start well/finish well strategy will only work if the driver adds some laps led, so we really want to focus on our driver, then place differential, finish position drivers will be a waste.

3) The basement is open on Sunday. There has been a mix of lineup constructions over the last few perfect lineups, but I don’t hate a one-punt build. Due to the way qualifying played out, I could be talked into a 2-punt build for cash, but I think 1 big name from the rear, 1 dominator up front, and 1 punt will be the perfect build this weekend.

Stage 1: 80 Laps

Stage 2: 85 Laps

Stage 3: 102 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Ryan Blaney ($10,700 DK, $13,500 FD): Blaney is coming off a win at New Hampshire and consecutive top 4 finishes in his last two races here. The big news of the weekend is a cut tire forced Blaney into his backup car and a 37th place starting position. Ryan has literally nowhere to go but forward, so that makes him a cash game lock.

Chris Buescher ($8,000 DK, $8,000 FD): Kansas is one of Buescher’s best tracks. He has three straight top 11 finishes here, including a second place last May. He starts 15th this weekend, which doesn’t give him too much place differential, but I love his top 10 potential, and I think he is a safe enough play for cash.

Austin Cindric ($7,200 DK, $6,800 FD): Cindric is not a typical Pitstop driver and he is much more boom or bust than I generally like for cash but he starts 26th on Sunday and was very fast over the long run in practice. When he runs a clean race, Austin can finish in the top 12, but getting him to the black and white checkered is always a task in itself.

Tournament Targets

Chase Briscoe ($9,500 DK, $10,500 FD): I have been fading Briscoe all season, generally to my peril. Well, this weekend he is starting on the pole (again), and Kansas is very kind to the pole sitter. He has very fast cars all around him, so I don’t expect this to be a cake walk, but he is absolutely my top dominator option.

Ryan Preece ($6,900 DK, $7,000 FD): Preece is cheap, he starts 19th and my model hates him. While only two of those things are generally good, they are still true. Ryan is coming off two races with more than 20 positive place differentials. That may not be physically possible this Sunday, but he is no stranger to moving through the field at Kansas, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he snuck into the top 10 this weekend.

Daniel Suarez ($5,800 DK, $4,800 FD): This is the cheapest I can ever remember seeing Suarez, and I cannot pass up the value. Daniel finished in the top 16 in four of his last six races here, and starting 30th, that is more than enough to pay off his dirt-cheap salary. 2025 has been a forgettable season for Suarez, but there are still a couple of races coming up that can help him salvage what is left.

Joey Logano ($9,200 DK, $10,000 FD): Choosing a driver I marked as green in the cheatsheet as my risky driver of the week seems contradictory, but I can explain. With high-priced drivers starting in the front and the rear, we will have to make hard decisions. While I expect most players to try to scoop up as many laps led as possible, I think there is a scenario where a one-dominator and Logano + Blaney build could be optimal. This will resemble a stars and scrubs build, but the scrubs are actually the finishing position plays. Initially going into this race, I thought we would have to choose between Blaney and Logano, but I don’t actually hate the idea of rostering both in a small portion of lineups.

Bargain Basement

Zane Smith ($5,500 DK, $5,000 FD)

Zane is a sneaky basement driver because he can finish in the top 10 or bottom 10. He is coming off two straight top 16 finishes here, but he also finished 29th last May. Smith starts 28th on Sunday and was comically fast in practice. There is very limited downside with Smith this weekend, and I believe he is in play in all formats.

Other Drivers to Consider

Here are three more drivers I like in Kansas that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Denny Hamlin ($10,500 DK, $13,000 FD)

John H. Nemechek ($6,200 DK, $5,800 FD)

Bubba Wallace ($8,700 DK, $9,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Carson Hocevar ($7,100 DK, $7,500 FD)

There are some drivers that perpetually qualify much better than they finish, and that describes Hocevar to a T. He starts 6th on Sunday, and my model projects a finish of 19th. He has never finished better than 20th at Kansas, and I am not expecting him to reverse that streak this weekend.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 15-50 (-25.65 u)

2024 results: 28-40 (2.2 u)

2025 results: 25-33 (8.95 u)

Bowman drives like a madman at Kansas with six straight top 10 finishes. He cannot get out of his own way over the last two months, however, so I am expecting him to stumble from his 17th-place starting position. Buescher starts two spots further forward and had a better car by a mile in practice. While Bowman has the better track history, Buescher has the edge in current form.

We had a decent, steady year, so maybe it is time to take some risks during the last few races. I have written up two of the three drivers so far, so a quick review is in order. Cindric has significant place differential potential, but never finished better than 11th here. I am banking on him not having a career race on Sunday. Briscoe starts on the pole, and Kansas is very nice to the polesitter. I expect him to at least lead until the green flag stops, which could start about 40 laps in, if they split the stage in half. Keselowski begins in the 30s, practiced in the 30s, and only has two finishes better than 11th in the last 6 races here, a 9th and 11th. Brad struggles when he qualifies poorly, so I am banking on that trend continuing.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-4 (+2.85 u)

2024 Results: 11-15 (+11.45 u)

2025 Results: 6-12 (-3.09 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

For additional stats, check out the Hollywood Casino 400 Cheatsheet

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