LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - Highpoint.com 400

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS and 2023 FWRC qualifier @joejets19

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Rain and Toyotas were the storylines of last week’s race at Loudon. NASCAR did the right thing by calling the race early in the day and not delaying the inevitable and Martin Truex Jr. turned in the most dominating performance of the season, leaving the other drivers feeling like they should have just went home on Sunday. This weekend, Truex can continue his hot streak when the NASCAR Cup series travels to Pocono Raceway in Long Pond, PA for the Highpoint.com 400. The track, known as the “Tricky Triangle”, is a 2.5 mile, flat triangularly shaped tri-oval and each turn is a recreation of a previously existing turn at a different raceway. To add to Pocono’s quirkiness, each of it’s straight aways are different lengths. I’m not going to lie, this is my least favorite track on the NASCAR circuit and I am so happy we are down to one race here per season.

While the weather forecast seems perfect for Sunday, mountain weather is weird and a pop-up shower is never out of the question. While I don’t believe it should be a problem I wouldn’t be surprised if a shower showed up eventually.

_{On to Pocono!}

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 160 laps will be run this week, and 40 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 230 laps should run under the green flag for 103.5 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

Last year’s race was a weird one because the top 2 cars were teammates and ran away with the race but were also disqualified. Behind them, passing was possible for a select few (only 5 drivers picked up 10 or more spots, and four of them ended up in the perfect lineup). So to have a successful lineup you needed to be pretty much perfect. I expect a similar situation to play out again on Sunday. The front row is set up perfectly to run away with this race. There are only 160 laps on Sunday so there are not an astronomical amount of dominator points available but dominators are still important. In 2020 and 2021 they ran doubleheaders here, which threw off the stats a bit but I expect at least one of the two drivers on the front row in the perfect lineup.

There are not enough laps to support a two dominator build, instead we should focus on drivers with top 10 potential and hope they pick up some laps led and fastest laps in the process. I anticipate drivers being able to move around enough that we shouldn’t load up on the top 10 but rostering 3-4 drivers that start between 10-25 doesn’t seem unreasonable for both cash and tournaments. Good cars will move, and slow cars will be caught up in traffic, a top 10 finishing position will be paramount for our lineups on Sunday.

The bargain basement will be a dicey proposition this weekend. Pocono is generally a low attrition race and slow drivers tend to get lost in no man’s land for most of the race. While a punt is acceptable in cash, I would try to avoid this range in tournaments.

Stage 1: 30 Laps

Stage 2: 65 Laps

Stage 3: 65 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Kyle Busch ($10,500 DK, $12,000 FD)

There are few things Kyle Busch loves more than leading laps and finishing in the top 5 at Pocono. Lucky for us, he is starting 25th on Sunday and brings a boatload of place differential potential to the table. Don’t be surprised by his average finish here because he was among the two drivers disqualified last year. Removing his DQ and an incident in 2020, Bush has finished in the top 2 in four of his last six races at the Tricky Triangle. Kyle had speed in practice but was not able to translate that into a good starting position but that just makes him a cash game must-have.

Alex Bowman ($7,900 DK, $8,200 FD)

Bowman is a mid-range option providing significant safety that could be overlooked this Sunday. Alex starts 20th this weekend and has finished in the top 11 in his last four races here, including a win. He ran the 10th best single lap speed in practice Saturday and the 7th best ten lap average. Bowman also has an average finish of 11.5 at similar tracks this season which just adds to the fact that he is a reasonably priced driver with a high floor and significant upside.

Tournament Targets

William Byron ($10,200 DK, $12,500 FD)

All eyes will be on Truex Jr to pull off a repeat of last week, but I think Byron is the play this weekend. William starts on the pole and has been having a career year that I think he will continue on Sunday. Byron ran the best five and ten lap averages during practice on Saturday and will have the clean-air advantage for the race. He has been incredibly consistent this year at similar tracks with three top 4 finishes, including a win. While I do see a scenario where both Byron and Truex make the perfect lineup this weekend, I think Byron will be the better play and will not be afraid to roll him out as my solo dominator.

Chris Buescher ($7,500 DK, $6,800 FD)

Buescher starts 18th on Sunday and is not a traditional “risky pick” because he was very fast in practice, posting the 6th best single lap speed and the 4th best five and ten lap averages. What makes Chris dangerous this weekend is his odd starting position. Buescher will have to finish in the top 12 to hit 5x value; a top 10 is our real goal. Therefore, he will have to make a pretty sizeable move to make the perfect lineup, and while I think he has the potential to pull it off, there is about an equal chance he ends up with a lukewarm top 15 finish.

Bargain Basement

Michael McDowell ($6,000 DK, $5,200 FD)

We are rolling with McDowell again on Sunday, but this play is borderline insane. Michael starts 15th on Sunday and is the only basement driver with legitimate top-10 potential, but he also carries insane risk. McDowell was not overly impressive in practice on Saturday, but he is a proficient enough driver that he could turn his better-than-average starting position into a better-than-usual finish, even though he does have two top 10 finishes in his last five races here.

Other Driver To Consider

Here are three more drivers I like at Pocono that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Aric Almirola ($7,000 DK, $5,800 FD)

Chase Elliott ($9,600 DK, $10,500 FD)

Ryan Preece ($6,600 DK, $5,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Austin Cindric ($5,900 DK, $4,500 FD)

Cindric may be tempting for some, but I am not touching him with a 10 foot pole. He is cheap and can actually lose 2 spots and still hit 5x value but from his 9th place starting position, he offers way more downside.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 10-26 (-8.25 u)

Trying to ride the hot hand on this bet. As a whole, Chevy was the definition of mid during qualifying on Saturday, but they did produce two of the top 3 drivers, and I think the race will be won out of the top 5 anyway. If a winner from outside the top 5 were to emerge, my two favorite dark horses are Busch and Elliott, who are both Chevy drivers.

This is purely a trust-the-model bet. Bubba was not on my radar at all going into this race. Still, I looked at the average finishing position projections for each driver in this group, and Bubba has a significant advantage. My head says Kes in this group, but my models say, Wallace, so it will be interesting to see if either is correct.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-3 (3.85 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

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