LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - The Great American Getaway 400

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS, 2023(x3) and 2024 FWRC qualifier @joejets19

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The Great American Getaway 400🏁

For the second year in a row, Chicago provided an unforgettable race. A rain delay, wets vs slicks, fuel strategy, a 25-1 model predicted winner, and the first-ever time-limited race all added to the excitement of last weekend’s race. NASCAR has been on an unbelievable run, and if they can somehow provide an entertaining race this weekend, I will be truly impressed. This Sunday, the Cup Series travels to Pocono Raceway in Long Pond, PA for The Great American Getaway 400. The track is a 2.5-mile asphalt, triangular, flat track whose three turns are modeled after well-known turns at other race tracks: Trenton, Indianapolis (where they are racing next weekend), and Milwaukee. I am going to be honest, Pocono is one of my least favorite tracks on the circuit, and it will be the true test of the current NASCAR hot streak,

The weather seems to be favorable this weekend but if memory serves, the last few Pocono races also had low chances of rain and still ended up getting hit with a pop up shower. Going forward, I will assume every race has a weather threat and keep it moving.

_{On to Pocono!}

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 160 laps will be run this week, and 40 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 135 laps should run under the green flag for 60.75 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

This is another weird race where dominators won’t have many available points to accumulate. Additionally, since the introduction of the next-generation car, the number of laps a driver has led in a race at Pocono is 63. While both “dominators” started on the front row, laps led have been more spread out than a typical cookie-cutter track. The key to this race will once again be finishing position, and I think prioritizing drivers with top 10 potential will be the winning strategy. There is always an outside chance that one driver can completely run away with the race, so I would make sure to play someone dominator lineups, but similar to road races, a green flag stop will not cause a driver to lose a lap, so short-pitting a stage will be a viable strategy to gain track position and shake up the field.

There isn’t a bunch of attrition at Pocono, therefore the bargain basement is a tricky proposition. One basement driver will never kill you in cash, especially if they provide enough salary relief to grab another stud. In tournaments, any punt will need top 20 potential, which is a realistic target, but there are so few drivers in that range this weekend that we may just need to avoid the price range entirely.

Stage 1: 30 Laps

Stage 2: 65 Laps

Stage 3: 65 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Denny Hamlin ($11,000 DK, $14,000 FD)

For a very good reason, Denny Hamlin is the most expensive driver on both sites. He has won three of the last seven races at Pocono (not counting his DQ in 2022) and is starting 4th this Sunday. Denny struggled in practice on Saturday, but his success in qualifying, coupled with his top 5 ten and fifteen-lap averages, give me some hope in his car. Since Hamlin is not starting on the front row, he may have limited dominator potential, but he has a small amount of place differential built in (about 16 laps worth), and I think he is a potential race winner, making him still valuable at his hefty price tag.

Erik Jones ($7,000 DK, $6,500 FD)

Jones performs well at the weirdest tracks and “The Tricky Triangle” happens to fall into this category. Over his last two races here, Erik has an average finish of 10th with an average positive place differential of 19 places. He starts 23rd on Sunday which is honestly further forward than I would have liked but I prioritize track history at the quirky venues and I think Jones has top 15 potential this weekend.

Tournament Targets

Chase Elliott ($9,500 DK, $11,500 FD)

Chase is one of the more affordable big names this weekend. He starts 11th, giving him a decent amount of place differential potential. Despite his struggles, Elliott has an average finish of 6.5 at Pocono over the last two races and an average finish of 10.25 at similar tracks over the last two seasons. Elliott was not overly impressive in practice, but I love his top-five potential, and he provides race-winning upside on Sunday.

Bubba Wallace ($7,600 DK, $8,200 FD)

I know, I would love to say Ricky Stenhouse Jr. is my favorite risky pick of the week, but Wallace may be a close second. Bubba starts 29th on Sunday, but my model expects big things out of him. Wallace has an average sim finish of 16.8 with a top finish of 4th and a 7% top 10 percentage. A modest +12 place differential average projection with a top 5 ceiling is worth the price tag on Bubba this weekend. He showed some serious speed in practice on Saturday, posting the 4th best single lap speed and 5th best 5 lap average. Bubba is in a great spot on Sunday, and I think he makes a fantastic tournament play.

Bargain Basement

John H. Nemechek ($5,700 DK, $4,000 FD)

This is another race where I don’t believe the bargain should be heavily utilized. If we have to choose someone, you could do much worse than Nemechek. John starts 32nd on Sunday, and he has the best projected finish of the range, 25th. I don’t have high expectations for this range and expect to find my value elsewhere.

Other Drivers to Consider

Here are three more drivers I like in Pocono that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Tyler Reddick ($9,800 DK, $12,500 FD)

Kyle Busch ($8,200 DK, $7,800 FD)

Todd Gilliland ($6,800 DK, $5,800 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Zane Smith ($5,800 DK, $2,500 FD)

I don’t expect anyone to go crazy rostering Smith starting 9th on Sunday, but this is your reminder. If you think this is a good idea, it's not. Zane has an average finish of 28,2 at similar tracks over the last two seasons, and I would be very impressed if he is able to hang on to a top 20. Unfortunately for Smith, impressing me means very little in fantasyland, and I will be rolling out a full fade.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 15-50 (-25.65 u)

2024 results: 17-21 (3.7 u)

There isn’t too much value on the board this weekend, so we are rolling out another “Anything but Toyota” bet. Toyota showed up on Saturday, qualifying three cars in the top four starting positions for Sunday. While my model predicts Hamlin, a Toyota, to win the race, it only has three Toyotas in the top 10. If misfortune falls upon Hamlin, plenty of non-Toyotas will be waiting to cash in.

Another week, another plus money H2H. This Sunday, we have a battle of Toyotas and a tale as old as time, a veteran with long run speed vs a youthful up-and-comer who was very fast over the short run. I like Reddick this weekend, not because of his practice times, but because his average finish at Pocono (3 vs 6) and average similar finish (8.1 vs 9.6) edge out Truex. This will be an incredibly close battle, and both should finish in the top 10, but I think this should be much closer to a toss-up.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-4 (2.85 u)

2024 Results: 9-10 (+11.4 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

For comments on every driver and additional stats, check out the The Great American Getaway 400 cheatsheet

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