LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - Grant Park 220

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC and 2021 KoS qualifier @joejets19

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Grant Park 220🏁

Last weekend, Nashville gave us everything we could have hoped for and more. This 4th of July weekend, while everyone is at the beach or BBQing, NASCAR provides a special treat. The Cup Series is traveling to downtown Chicago for the very first street race in history. The Chicago Street Course is a 12-turn, 2.14-mile street circuit that runs through the famous Grant Park. The idea for this circuit initially stemmed from an iRacing conceptual track from 2021 that eventually came to fruition this summer. The track proved to be quite a handful in practice, with several drivers encountering problems. I am excited to see how this race plays out over 100 laps.

Rain is in the forecast for early Sunday, but the worst of it should be through the area before the green flag drops. As long as there isn’t lightning or torrential downpours, we may get to see some rain tires this weekend too.

_{On to Chicago!}

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 100 laps will be run this week, and 25 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 75 laps should run under the green flag for 33.75 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

There are so many variables going into this race that it makes my head hurt. There is a chance this plays out like a F1 snoozefest with passing being nearly impossible, but the field is twice the size, we don’t have local cautions, and last time I checked Max Verstappen is in Austria. There is probably a greater chance that this turns into an absolute mess, especially if rain comes into play. The real kicker is both scenarios warrant entirely different lineup constructions. If we take the F1 approach, we will want to frontload our lineups since it will be very hard for drivers to lose positions. Contrarily, if we think this will turn into chaos, a backloaded lineup may be optimal because it could turn into a race of survival. Considering all of the hiccups in practice, I think the field will expect will opt for safer lineup constructions and pray for some place differential to open up. That leaves us with an interesting dilemma. In cash games and single-entry tournaments, I think a backloaded/safe lineup will be the best play. In giant tournaments and qualifiers, I will opt for more of a front-loaded lineup and hope the race turns into a snoozefest with a bunch of low-owned drivers starting in the top 15 and finishing in the top 15. While the front-loaded option is inherently the higher risk play of the two, this race will play out to one extreme or the other, and it is always better to bet on the low owned/high-ceiling option.

Stage 1: 20 Laps

Stage 2: 25 Laps

Stage 3: 55 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Kevin Harvick ($7,500 DK, $7,800 FD)

Harvick is one of the aforementioned drivers that ran into trouble on Saturday and will be heading to a backup car for the race. This isn’t the worst thing in the world, however, because he will be scored from 35th so there is almost nowhere he can go but forward. Harvick is no stranger to starting in the back half of the field at road races, with an average starting position of 25.5 at the last four non-Roval road races, but his average finish of 11.5 in those races proves that he knows how to navigate traffic. Due to his reasonable salary, a top 20 finish will be enough for Harvick to hit value, and any finish better than that will just increase his chances of making the perfect lineup.

Chris Buescher ($8,500 DK, $9,000 FD)

Buescher has lowkey been one of the most consistent road racers over the last season and a half. He has finished in the top 10 in eight of the last nine road races (including Rovals) and has three top 4 finishes during that time. Chris starts 15th on Sunday and in a prime candidate for a top 10 finish. There will be very few drivers that make both your frontloaded and backloaded player pools but I think Buescher is a universal great play this weekend, and I am looking to go overweight on him big time.

Tournament Targets

Martin Truex Jr. ($10,400 DK, $13,000 FD)

I am a firm believer in riding the hot hand in NASCAR, and right now, there is no one hotter than Truex Jr. He won at Sonoma three weeks ago and was a major player at Nashville last Sunday. Martin starts 11th on Sunday and should spend most of his day in the top 10. Ideally, he will make his way towards the front towards the middle of the race and possibly lead a significant number of laps. Truex was fast over the long run in practice on Saturday, which would bode well for our low-caution scenario. While Truex is one of the most expensive drivers of the slate, he has a significant ceiling considering his place differential and dominator potential.

Shane Van Gisbergen ($7,600 DK, $6,200 FD)

I generally make it a habit to fake the non-Nascar drivers in the field because they tend to self-destruct eventually, but I was blown away by Shane in practice and qualifying. Street races may actually be the great equalizer that everyone was looking for, and I am looking for Van Gisbergen to prove that to the world on Sunday. While this is not a high percentage play due to his 3rd place starting position, if he manages to at least finish in the top 5 he has a legitimate chance of making the perfect lineup.

Bargain Basement

Corey LaJoie $5,700 DK, $2,500 FD)

LaJoie finds himself in the risky player pool this weekend, but that’s ok because he has legitimate upside from his 19th-place starting position. Corey ran the 7th best single lap speed and the 2nd best 5 lap average in practice on Saturday. He also has two top 12 finishes in his last three road races. Any finish 15th or better will pay off his super low salary, which is an incredibly reasonable expectation for LaJoie.

Other Driver To Consider

Here are three more drivers I like at Chicago that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Tyler Reddick ($10,100 DK, $12,500 FD)

Ross Chastain ($9,600 DK, $12,000 FD)

Brad Keselowski ($7,200 DK, $6,500 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Daniel Suarez ($8,900 DK, $10,000 FD)

Somewhere around his win at Sonoma last season, the narrative began that Suarez is an excellent road racer. Judging by results, that is far from the truth. While he qualified in the top 10 in each of the last five road races, he only has one top 10 finish to show for it. He only has one finish better than 22nd to show for it. I will continue to avoid him until Suarez becomes more consistent at Road Courses.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 9-21 (-6.25 u)

I dislike outright, but that is the only offering for both DK and MGM. Truex is scalding hot currently and is looking very this weekend. He should be the favorite, but we are getting some value due to his starting position. You could do so much worse for a half-unit.

Logano has emerged as a master of the new track. He is not the best road racer but is consistently in the top 10 and should be able to capitalize if all hell breaks loose towards the end of the race.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-3 (3.85 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

NO POLL THIS WEEK, as of the time of this writing, only outrights have been posted.

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Grant Park 220 and find me on Twitter. Good Luck!