LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - Grant Park 165

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS, 2023(x3) and 2024 FWRC qualifier @joejets19

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Check out the Grant Park 165 Cheatsheet

Grant Park 165🏁

Happy 4th of July weekend, everyone! I hope you got to enjoy the holiday with fun in the sun, some fireworks, and a little family time. NASCAR is doing its part to add to the holiday festivities when it travels to the streets of Chicago for the Grant Park 165. The Chicago Street course is a 12-turn, 2.2-mile street circuit that runs through part of downtown Chicago as well as Grant Park. 90-degree turns and nice straightaways provide plenty of room for chaos, so this is not the easiest road course to predict, but there should be plenty of entertainment.

Naturally, Mother Nature is expected to be a nuisance this weekend, with a 55% chance of rain around the green flag time. While drivers will have wet-weather tires, lightning makes everything stop. Last year, a curfew was in place for the race's conclusion, and depending on the rain delay, it may come into effect again on Sunday.

On to Chicago!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 75 laps will be run this week, and 18.75 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 65 laps should run under the green flag for 29.25 possible DK points)

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

1) What dominators? Chicago is one of the shortest races of the season, and there are almost no dominator points. Only one of the top lap leaders has made the perfect lineup in the two races here, and that’s because he had a positive place differential of 35 spots.

2) This is not your typical road track. Front-loaded lineups are usually the key to success at road races, but not so much in Chicago. This track breeds chaos, so we will need a significantly greater place differential than normal.

3) Don’t roster more than two drivers starting in the top 10. Passing is hard, but the entire track is trouble, so we will need to limit our downside and avoid big negatives. There is a very low likelihood a dominator makes the perfect lineup so there is little reason to chase.

4) Don’t fall in love with cheap lineups. The last 2 perfect lineups left a ton of money on the table, but I am not willing to accept that as the rule, more like a recurring exception.

Stage 1: 20 Laps

Stage 2: 25 Laps

Stage 3: 30 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Chase Elliott ($9,500 DK, $11,500 FD): There are several fantastic road racers who had issues in practice that prevented them from making a qualifying lap. Elliott was a top 3 car before his incident and is a top-10 road racer, but is starting 39th. There is no reason to overthink this; play Chase in cash.

William Byron ($10,000 DK, $11,000 FD): Byron starts 38th on Sunday and is arguably better than Elliott at Chicago, while Elliott is the overall better road racer. Either way, they are both in play for cash.

Justin Haley ($6,800 DK, $5,800 FD): Haley has an average finish of 9 with an average place differential of 21. Yes, that make be a fluke. This can turn out to be a fluke race again, and for some reason, Haley finds himself up front in those types of situations.

Tournament Targets

Shane Van Gisbergen ($12,000 DK, $14,000 FD): I HATE playing SVG as the priciest driver at a road track starting on the pole, but at this point, he deserves that respect. While SVG won the inaugural race, he was the first driver out last year. If this plays out like the first normal Chicago street race, he is rightfully the odds-on favorite.

Ross Chastain ($8,100 DK, $8,200 FD): Chastain is a model pick. He starts 22nd and is a very good road racer with matching 22nd place finishes here. Nothing particularly pops on paper for Chastain, but the model gives him a 99% chance of a top 10, so that is good enough for me.

Ryan Blaney ($7,500 DK, $7,200 FD): Blaney is the type of driver who runs a 95% flawless race, then gets caught up in someone else’s mess. While everyone loves to focus on the upside, they often overlook a really important 5%. Well, this is me falling into the same trap. Ryan starts 17th and had decent long run speed. My model gives him a range of outcomes between 1 and 6, so hopefully he will avoid the bad variance.

Bubba Wallace ($6,400 DK, $4,500 FD): Wallace didn’t have a problem in practice, but in qualifying, taking a spin at the most inopportune time. Bubba is another snake-bitten driver who tends to excel in volatile situations and is starting 37th. Due to his proclivity for catching a wall, Wallace still isn’t safe enough for cash due to his high ownership.

Bargain Basement

Noah Gragson ($5,400 DK, $3,000 FD)

Not a name I mention often, Noah is starting on the 24th, which puts him right on the cusp of being too risky to roster. He has an average finish of 19.5 at Chicago and an average finish of 22 at road courses since last season. I wouldn’t put all my eggs in the Gragson basket, but he should be included in our player pool.

Other Drivers to Consider

Here are three more drivers I like in Chicago that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Chris Buescher ($8,600 DK, $9,500 FD)

Austin Cindric ($7,800 DK, $6,800 FD)

Christopher Bell ($10,200 DK, $13,500 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Austin Dillon ($6,300 DK, $3,800 FD)

Dillon starts 10th on Sunday, but he is not a good road racer. With an average finish of 27.5 here and 30.6 at other road races, he is firmly a full fade on Sunday.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 15-50 (-25.65 u)

2024 results: 28-40 (2.2 u)

2025 results: 16-18 (9.6 u)

Most of DK’s H2Hs follow the in-season tournament again, and that is providing some crazy matchups. This season I have been betting against Briscoe any way I can and this weekend’s edition is for Chastain to win the plus money H2H. Briscoe starts much further ahead, but he practiced much worse than Chastain and has a lower average finish at Chicago as well as road courses as a whole.

Larson and Allmendinger are among the best road racers in the field, but they cannot get out of their own way at Chicago. Larson starts 14th and has an average negative place differential at Chicago and all road races over the last season. Allmendinger, previously known as a road ringer, starts 16th and has an average finish of 27.5 at Chicago and an average finish of 18.2 at road tracks since 2024.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-4 (2.85 u)

2024 Results: 11-15 (+11.45 u)

2025 Results: 4-4 (2.31 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

For additional stats, check out the Grant Park 165 Cheatsheet

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