LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - Grant Park 165

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS, 2023(x3) and 2024 FWRC qualifier @joejets19

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Grant Park 165🏁

This has been a wild summer for NASCAR so far and its looks like thing are just starting to heat up. Nashville was full of drama: a red flag, fuel strategy, tire strategy, and five overtimes resulted in a chaotic finish that may never be repeated. This Sunday, the Cup Series travels to a venue that doesn’t need any extra in race shenanigans to set itself apart from other tracks. The Grant Park 165 will take place on the Chicago Street Course, a 12 turn, 2.2 mile track carved out of the Chicago city streets and Grant Park. Last year’s race was historic for many reasons, but it may not represent this track best due to heavy rain and high incident rates.

Weather may play a factor in Sunday’s race again. While there is only a 20-30% chance of rain this weekend, the way the last few weeks have been going there is almost zero chance we aren’t seeing the wet weather tires at some point.

_{On to Chicago!}

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 75 laps will be run this week, and 18.75 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 60 laps should run under the green flag for 27 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

Dominator points practically don’t exist this weekend, so let’s not even try to nail down a dominator. Especially considering the re-introduction of stage breaks in road courses, a 75-lap race offers a max of 18.75 laps led points, and it will be impossible for a driver to lead every single lap. Ironically, this race should be a finishing position race, but due to the carnage of last year, it seems like place differential is king. I will continue to prioritize finishing position at road courses this year, including this weekend, because the track is tight, and there are very few passing zones. Big moves happen due to attrition and strategy, not because of a massive difference in a car’s performance. This means we should focus on drivers with potential in the top 10. period. If a driver starts 6th and we think he will finish 3rd, perfect. But if a driver starts 33rd and we think he finish will 21st, he is not a great tournament option. While picking up 12 spots is generally what we are looking for, other drivers will score better than that driver this weekend simply by finishing better. This should be one of the weekends where we can take risks on drivers that are starting up front that we otherwise wouldn’t play if it was any other track type.

The bargain basement will be unnecessary this weekend unless the race devolves completely into chaos and a surprise driver finds themselves up front (kinda like last weekend). Those types of scenarios are very difficult to predict and I wouldn’t allocate too many lineups to taking those types of longshots.

Stage 1: 20 Laps

Stage 2: 25 Laps

Stage 3: 30 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

AJ Allmendinger ($9,000 DK, $10,500 FD)

Allmendinger is known as a road ringer and is starting 37th on Sunday. While I know this flies in the face of my “prioritize finishing position over place differential” strategy for this race, it is hard to pass on AJ’s floor this weekend in cash. Another thing to take into consideration is Allmendinger’s starting position is 37th on paper, but due to a slue of unapproved adjustments, Blaney, Byron, Burton, Keselowski, Berry, Lajoie, and Jones will all be starting behind him, essentially giving him a +7 place differential to start the race. Last year, AJ finished 17th here and has an average finish of 15.6 at true road courses over the last two seasons. Allmendinger’s price mandates a top 15 finish to be useful in tournaments, but I think he can get away with a top 20 in cash, and I think that is closer to his floor than his ceiling.

Martin Truex Jr. ($9,200 DK, $9,000 FD)

Truex Jr. is another higher-priced driver who is starting further back in the field and can make a big move, but I like Truex’s chance at a top 10 more than Allmendinger’s. Martin starts 24th on Sunday and had a very good practice session, posting the 9th-best 5-lap average and 3rd-best 10-lap average. Although he ran into trouble here last year, Truex’s average finish at similar tracks over the last two seasons is 15.2, ranking 9th best in the field. Truex will need to go above and beyond to hit tournament value and provide a solid floor/ceiling combination for cash games.

Tournament Targets

Alex Bowman ($7,300 DK, $6,800 FD)

I generally save my risky pick of the slate for my second tournament write up, but my model loves Bowman this weekend, and the more I dug into his numbers, the more I agree. Bowman starts 8th on Sunday, which automatically makes him a high-risk/high-reward play. While he only posted the 5th best single lap speed in practice, he ran the best 5 and 10 lap averages, suggesting his car is built for the long run. Bowman was a casualty of the chaos last year at Chicago, but he has the best average finish (6.4) at true road courses over the last two seasons. Alex is almost guaranteed to be a low owned option on Sunday that can provide tournament winning upside.

Chris Buescher ($8,800 DK, $9,500 FD)

Buescher is a frequent flyer on the Pitstop but not generally at the risky play of the week. He starts 16th on Sunday and is in a top 10 or bust position. Chris is relatively pricey and starting far enough forward that he has zero room for error. Practice was not Chris’s friend, but I love his track history and track-type history. Buescher finished 10th here last year after picking up 5 spots and has the second-best average finish at true road courses over the last 2 years (6.8) with the added bonus of an average positive place differential of 14. This is the type of race where a team can cover up a so-so with good strategy calls, and that is exactly what I expect from the 17 teams this weekend.

Bargain Basement

Ricky Stenhouse Jr ($5,700 DK, $3,500 FD)

I don’t expect the basement to get too much love this race but I believe the top play in this price range is Ricky Stenhouse Jr. He starts 33rd this Sunday but showed significantly more speed in practice, posting the 23rd best 5 lap average. Stenhouse is also an underrated road racer with an average finish of 17.2 at similar tracks with an average positive place differential of 12.

Other Drivers to Consider

Here are three more drivers I like in Chicago that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Chase Elliott ($9,600 DK, $12,000 FD)

Bubba Wallace ($6,200 DK, $4,500 FD)

Ross Chastain ($8,200 DK, $8,200 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Kyle Larson ($10,500 DK, $14,000 FD)

Larson needs to win to have a chance to make the perfect lineup, and depending on how this race shakes out, that still may not be enough. Larson starts on the pole, but with so few dominator points available, he will have a hard time paying off his slate high salary. I wouldn’t be surprised if Larson finished in the top 5, but that will not be good enough to make the perfect lineup.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 15-50 (-25.65 u)

2024 results: 16-20 (2.2 u)

Chastain excels at atypical track types (road courses and superspeedways) and has a legitimate top-10 chance on Sunday. He starts 14th, and my model predicts a 13th-place finish, but there are some unrealistic top 10 projected finishers this week, so I think the projection should be closer to 10. He has an average finish of 8.4 at similar tracks since the start of 2023 and an average positive place differential of 5.8, suggesting an average race should make this bet a winner.

We never see spreads this big in H2Hs, and there is still tremendous uncertainty at these tracks. SVG set the NASCAR world on fire by winning this inaugural Chicago Street race, but every star aligned perfectly for that to happen. At COTA, SVG was not nearly as successful, whereas Elliott has consistently been a top Cup driver at road courses, even during his slump. I was side with proven talent every day of the week.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-4 (2.85 u)

2024 Results: 9-9 (+12.4 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

For comments on every driver and additional stats, check out the Grant Park 165 cheatsheet

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