LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - Goodyear 400

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS, 2023(x3) and 2024 FWRC qualifier @joejets19

💬Join the LineStar NASCAR Chat for info from experts.

Check out the Goodyear 400 Cheatsheet

Goodyear 400🏁

Sin City provided the most uneventful race of this young season last weekend when Denny Hamlin quietly showed up and took care of business. NASCAR takes a break from the West Coast starting this Sunday when the Cup Series travels to Darlington Raceway in Darlington, SC, for the Goodyear 400. The track is a 1.366-mile egg-shaped oval that features wider turns at 1 and 2 and narrow turns at 3 and 4. The racing surface is known to chew through tires, and we are bound to hear about the new low-downforce/high-horsepower package being utilized this weekend, no less than a million times during the broadcast. When it is all said and done, someone will drive away with the checkered flag, and it is our job to figure out who that person will be.

While it will be noticeably cooler this weekend in South Carolina, there is still no chance of precipitation, so Mother Nature will be taking another week off (thank goodness).

After the better part of 9 seasons, this will be my last Pitstop. I would like to thank the LineStar/BetFully community for letting me invade your inboxes every weekend during the NASCAR season. I have appreciated this opportunity more than you could ever know. The Pitstop has been a part of my life longer than my three children. In fact, I wrote one of the early editions in the hospital waiting for the first one to be born. Without you knowing, we watched the sun set, sometimes watched the sun rise, and listened to a lot of music together. I am eternally grateful for the time we have spent together and will continue to enjoy seeing the Linestar Logo atop a NASCAR leaderboard.

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 293 laps will be run this week, and 73.25 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 250 laps should run under the green flag for 112.5 possible DK points)

Finishing Position Points: The 40th-place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

1) This may be a one-dominator race. Darlington is a strange place because the winning and dominating strategies are not always the same. In each of the last five races, one driver led at least 170 laps, and only one of those drivers won. In fact, two of them finished outside the top 30. We will have to be very careful to get our dominator pick right. We should focus our dominator pool on the top 4. While in cash, we may only select one driver; in tournaments, we may want to take two stabs at it. Three of the last four perfect lineups had two drivers that started in the top 4, and one of those lineups would have had a second top 4 driver if Hamlin hadn’t run into trouble.

2) Stars and scrubs has been a successful strategy. If we are going to try to roster two top 4 drivers, we may want to go all the way and roster four top-tier drivers and two basement drivers. For that strategy to work, we need to nail the dominator and the race winner, and have the other two drivers finish in the top 5. A place differential would be nice, but a driver starting in the top 15 and finishing in the top 5 would suffice for this specific build.

3) This may be a rare bargain basement double dip. There will definitely be one basement driver in the perfect lineup on Sunday, and there is a chance we will see two. It would be nice to pick a basement driver that has some place differential potential, but simply surviving may do the trick. It isn’t always easy to pass at Darlington, but don’t fall into the trap of rostering a basement driver starting well; they need to start in the rear and pick up some spots.

Stage 1: 90 Laps

Stage 2: 95 Laps

Stage 3: 108 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Tyler Reddick ($9,500 DK, $12,500 FD): We discussed in the Lineup Construction section that we want to target two top 4 drivers, and I am picking Reddick as my most likely dominator. He started on the pole and was the best car starting in the top 5 over the short and long run. He has the best average finish at Darlington over the last eight races and is riding a three-race top 10 streak.

Ross Chastain ($8,800 DK, $8,200 FD): Chastain is loaded with place differential potential from his 25th-place starting position. If this turns into a one-dominator race, that means we can pay up for our place differential plays, and Ross is the first driver I am looking at. Chastain has recorded a top 11 finish in each of the last 5 races at Darlington, with 17 or more spots gained in three of those races. Ross will need to find a little more speed in the car to continue his streak, but a top 15 finish is more than reasonable.

Ty Gibbs ($8,000 DK, $9,000 FD): Gibbs ’ price has been all over the map this season, but I cannot pass him up considering his 28th-place starting position. Ty was impressively fast in practice and has an average finish of 15th here in his career. Gibbs isn’t consistent enough for me to fully trust him, so I understand anyone who views him as more of a tournament player. As long as you find a way to get some exposure to Gibbs on Sunday, you will not regret it.

Tournament Targets

Joey Logano ($9,000 DK, $9,500 FD): Logano starts 29th on Sunday and had almost zero speed in his car during practice, but he’s still Joey Logano. He has an average finish of 12.125 over his last eight races at The Lady in Black and has not finished worse than 21st during that stretch. Logano has almost zero chance of winning and even less of a chance to dominate, but he is only the 9th-most-expensive driver on the slate, so he can still provide massive value to a lineup.

Carson Hocevar ($7,700 DK, $7,500 FD): Rostering Hocevar is always a risky proposition, but My Lord, it looks like he brought a rocketship to South Carolina. Carson starts 16th on Sunday despite running the 5th-best single lap speed in practice. Hocevar was even more impressive on the long run, posting the second-best single lap average. Carson managed to crack the top 10 last summer, and I am looking for him to improve on that this weekend.

Erik Jones ($7,500 DK, $7,000 FD): Jones finds himself on the Darlington Pitstop annually because he always looks very promising on paper. Starting 24th, Erik had a top 10 car over the long run in practice and posted the fastest single lap of the session. While Jones conquered the Track Too Tough to Tame in 2022, he also has three finishes 24th or worse over his last eight races here. Overall, we want some shares of Jones this weekend, as his upside is undeniable.

Kyle Larson ($10,500 DK, $13,500 FD): This may seem like an odd spot for Larson in the Pitstop, but he has been the definition of boom or bust at Darlington with a win and a 4th place finish as well as three finishes 34th or worse in his last eight races here. Kyle starts 4th on Sunday, and if our strategy holds, I project him to be the second driver that starts up front in the perfect lineup. His average simulated finish in my model was 1.72, only slightly behind Hamlin with a 1.6, but Larson starts in the key spot, so he gets the nod.

Bargain Basement

Todd Gilliland ($5,500 DK, $4,500 FD)

Gilliland starts 31st on Sunday, but this is actually one of his better tracks, with five top-17 finishes in his last eight races here, with a low finish of 28th. Todd is ridiculously cheap and shouldn’t have too much trouble cracking the top 25. If he can find himself in the top 20, there is a decent chance he makes the perfect lineup.

Other Drivers to Consider

Here are three more drivers I like at Darlington that have a chance to make some noise, in no particular order:

Austin Cindric ($6,900 DK, $6,500 FD)

Christopher Bell ($9,700 DK, $11,500 FD)

Josh Berry ($7,100 DK, $6,200 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Brad Keselowski ($7,600 DK, $8,500 FD)

Keselowski starts 5th on Sunday, but I think he is way over his head. While he won here in May 2024, Brad has had a top finish of 14th since then. Brad looked to have barely a top-10 car in practice on Saturday, and considering his starting position, I think he will do a lot more harm than good to our lineups.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u) 2023 results: 15-50 (-25.65 u)

2024 results: 28-40 (2.2 u) 2025 results: 29-41 (6.2 u)

2026 results: 5-5 (1.8 u)

This is a battle of teammates starting 5th and 6th, respectively. Keselowski had a slight edge in practice, but Buescher has won this H2H in four of the last five Darlington races. My model suggests this matchup isn’t as close as it seems on paper, projecting a 7th place finish for Buescher and a 15th place finish for Keselowski.

These are both wildly high projections for two drivers that are not predicted to be dominators. Briscoe has serious place differential potential but would need a top 5 finish to hit this number. My model gives him a top-11 finish, which gives us quite a cushion. Byron starts much further up and needs a top 3 to hit his mark. His ceiling is projected at a 4th-place finish, which is cutting it close, but I don’t think he gets there.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-4 (+2.85 u) 2024 Results: 11-15 (+11.45 u)

2025 Results: 7-15 (-4.09 u)

2026 Results 2-2 (2.65 u)

I will select one of the groups posted on DK Sportsbook and leave it to readers to vote for their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

For additional stats, check out the Goodyear 400 Cheatsheet

Find me on Twitter. Good Luck!